Matt Severance
TAMPA BAY @ MONTREAL | 07/02 | 8:00 PM EDT
UNDER 5
ANALYSIS: Really no point waiting on this total -- I'll be going Under on every game and the oddsmakers aren't going to raise it to 5.5 goals (again, though, I recommend buying that half-goal to be safe). Tampa Bay is scoring nearly two goals fewer this postseason on the road compared to home, and with the last line change the Canadiens will be able to get a lot of matchups they want. The Habs are allowing 2.13 goals per game at home in this postseason.
TAMPA BAY @ MONTREAL | 07/02 | 8:00 PM EDT
TAMPA BAY -135
ANALYSIS: Montreal won't have a huge home-ice advantage because Quebec rejected the team's request to increase attendance from 3,500 to 10,500 for the Stanley Cup Final. That might matter a bit because Tampa played and won in very hostile environments in south Florida, Raleigh and Long Island. This game may feel like nothing in that regard. The Habs will get back coach Dominique Ducharme as he comes out of COVID protocols. While the Canadiens played vastly better in Game 2, they still couldn't solve Andrei Vasilevskiy. I simply can't pick the Canadiens because of how good Vasilevskiy has been. Tampa is the better team and having to only pay -135 is worth it. Both puckline prices are too exorbitant to bother.