PGA: 3M Open (7.27-7.30) - Blaine, MN.

[slickfazzer]

Light Field post British Open.

Lets find some winners.

3M Open 2023 Golf Leaderboard - PGA TOUR

PGA TOUR Live Leaderboard 2023 3M Open, Blaine - Golf Scores and Results

www.pgatour.com

 

[Pimike]

Don’t see Fleetwood

 

[slickfazzer]

Don’t see Fleetwood

Looks like no Fleetwood Mike, so this week no comments from JJ about him going soft.

 

[jjgold]

Fleetwood a loser
He does not have the insides to win

 

[Pimike]

Looks like no Fleetwood Mike, so this week no comments from JJ about him going soft.

He did anyways lol

actually, this card Fleetwood could had actually won if he played it

lol

 

[KVB]

Probably going to be a lot of birdies this week. I need to see some odds on my desk.

I might have some good info by Tuesday, maybe I come back with a little more useful info.

I would expect the winner to break -15 this week, with that first round possibly having a -7 to -9 leader, but I don't even have course specifics yet.

 

[slickfazzer]

Passing this week.

Weak tourney.

 

[Pimike]

Let’s take a shot on

Thomas and
Grillo

 

[jjgold]

PASS

Going Bear Hunting Northern Nevada

 

[BMR Genie]

Light Field post British Open.

Lets find some winners.

3M Open 2023 Golf Leaderboard - PGA TOUR

PGA TOUR Live Leaderboard 2023 3M Open, Blaine - Golf Scores and Results

www.pgatour.com

Good luck this week, Slick!

 

[BigJay]

Going Bear Hunting Northern Nevada

 

[KVB]

Tweaking some rather revolutionary uses of golf stats here.

I have an opinion, but to anyone else who has looked at this tourney, at least the course, what's the most important aspect of this course that could separate a golfer or golfers from the pack if they are better at that aspect that others.

What we are doing is specially weighting some stats, including strokes gaines stats, to formulate some probabilities.

For example, currently, believe it or not, the least expected influence is going to come from the strokes gained putting, for this course.

Perhaps off the tee is more important, perhaps just approaches, or perhaps just scrambling, or even a combo, adding mulitple different categories together, like tee to green.

What do you guys think? If you don't know enough about the course, that's cool, I will be adding some course info here today. Many bettors think about the golfer, or matchup, but not as much about the course. We should change that thinking.

Also, if you aren't clear on what exactly strokes gained means I can clear that up too.

I will be back to this thread. Our work here will be expanded on in future weeks.

 

[Pimike]

Let’s take a shot on

Thomas and
Grillo

Adding C Young x 2

That’s all

 

[KVB]

Anybody actually ever track golfers?

Anyone ever notice that when golfers get hot that, with some extreme exceptions, there is time frame where the stay hot before trailing off? That time frame is surprisingly narrow but even more suprisingly consistent, allowing for some predictions.

It is related to preparation and works best for those contending for big tourneys, or at least focusing that way.

Who's in the "hot" window right now? I see a golfer better than 20-1 to win who's in a hot window.

Gotta be tough to from the Open and travel across the world to Minnesota, but is that enough to kill a "hot" golfer.

Not trying to be mysterious, just trying to poke and prod. I'd like to build on these concepts going forward but really only have about a month left this "season" so that kinda sucks for me to start this.

 

[JDS]

Anybody actually ever track golfers?

Anyone ever notice that when golfers get hot that, with some extreme exceptions, there is time frame where the stay hot before trailing off? That time frame is surprisingly narrow but even more suprisingly consistent, allowing for some predictions.

It is related to preparation and works best for those contending for big tourneys, or at least focusing that way.

Who's in the "hot" window right now? I see a golfer better than 20-1 to win who's in a hot window.

Gotta be tough to from the Open and travel across the world to Minnesota, but is that enough to kill a "hot" golfer.

Not trying to be mysterious, just trying to poke and prod. I'd like to build on these concepts going forward but really only have about a month left this "season" so that kinda sucks for me to start this.

What golfer are you referring to at 20-1 odds who is in good form ?

 

[KVB]

What golfer are you referring to at 20-1 odds who is in good form ?

Sepp Straka

But I was hoping for input on course knowledge. Just posted that golf is being a little bitch right now, and I gotta eat.

Taking a break then coming back to tackle this issue, this tourney and this thread.

Played a little too much grab ass today in the Forums and golf needs a little more "nuance" than I had anticiapated.

But yeah, Sepp Straka lights up some places relative to this field and it does so in spots where his hot form is operating, for lack of a better way of saying.

His hotness might be dancing well with this particular course, as another way to say it. Sometimes, that dance, leads to a win, or at least a top 10.

Really looking at top 20, 10, and maybe 5 for many of the golfers that end up on the radar.

Looking for more consistency and volume than just "to win" as I think my approach to these stats are much much much, did I say much, more relevant and geared to that kind of performance relative to the field.

Not seeking the all or nothing, either 0 or 100 problem.

I'm seeking those 51-49 type problems. This golf method is going to be much better at solving those. That's an important realization, believe it or not.

I'm rambling and I'm hungry, sorry about that. Just gives you an idea of how this little puzzle has been fighting with me today.

 

[JDS]

Sepp Straka

But I was hoping for input on course knowledge. Just posted that golf is being a little bitch right now, and I gotta eat.

Taking a break then coming back to tackle this issue, this tourney and this thread.

Played a little too much grab ass today in the Forums and golf needs a little more "nuance" than I had anticiapated.

But yeah, Sepp Straka lights up some places relative to this field and it does so in spots where his hot form is operating, for lack of a better way of saying.

His hotness might be dancing well with this particular course, as another way to say it. Sometimes, that dance, leads to a win, or at least a top 10.

Really looking at top 20, 10, and maybe 5 for many of the golfers that end up on the radar.

Looking for more consistency and volume than just "to win" as I think my approach to these stats are much much much, did I say much, more relevant and geared to that kind of performance relative to the field.

Not seeking the all or nothing, either 0 or 100 problem.

I'm seeking those 51-49 type problems. This golf method is going to be much better at solving those. That's an important realization, believe it or not.

I'm rambling and I'm hungry, sorry about that. Just gives you an idea of how this little puzzle has been fighting with me today.

I love your ramblings so don’t apologize. I have no input to add on course knowledge as of right now. My mind not on sports betting this week. I agree Sepp Straka is definitely a hot golfer & I’m kicking myself I didn’t take him in my DK line up last week at The Open.

Whatever you come up with regarding your puzzle make sure you share it in this thread, but 1st foremost go eat something for Christ sake & enjoy .

 

[jjgold]

Look at Justin Thomas he’s not even a top 50 player anymore. It’s unbelievable.

 

[JDS]

Look at Justin Thomas he’s not even a top 50 player anymore. It’s unbelievable.

Yeah he’s really fallen off this year. That can happen to anyone though as a top 10 player. Golf is funny like that they only made one Tiger & one Jack as the most consistent golfers to ever dominate multiple decades.

 

[KVB]

Let me get right to it, with some generalities. There is a combination of current course, similar courses (which is a bit weak in this instance) recent history in the geographical area for golfers, and then of course recent performance relative to the field across strokes gained and other stats going back 8 tournaments to establish that form.

Probably going to be some low scores in this tournament, with a lot of birdies, and that fact is also being factored in, as this course will be wide off the tee, relatively speaking, at all 25 yard intervals, starting from 275 all the way to 350 yards off the tee with bentgrass down the fairway, bluegrass with fescue on a 4" rough, and bentgrass greens with a Tourney Stimp of 12. There is water in play on 15 of the 18 holes, acting as defense on many of those holes

Some to all of these factors are taken into account for golfers, but it wasn't as relevant for this tournament. Often we compare these course stats to similar course and track the difference in courses through the season but our comparisons here, as a TPC course aren't as strong. This course was built for amateurs, though has gotten slightly tougher over the recent years, when it comes different deviations of score stats.

Another thing to note is that the elevation is about 900 and this does affect the golf shot, a bit. There is likely to be a required adjustment, albeit the smallest one of it's kind for elevation adjustments, as small as 2% of the length, but can matter at times. JT Poston and Woodland should be able to trust the math at this lower, but still at, elevation, but I don't know about Hojgaard.

I have picked up a series of bets with those golfers. Here are what I found as the best probabilites against what is now likely a "mature" market...

Nicolai Hojgaard Top 20 Finish +265 at BOL
J.T. Poston Top 20 finish +210 at BOL
Gary Woodland Top 20 Finish +180 at DK

Nicolai Hojgaard Top 30 Finish +150 at DK
J.T. Poston Top 30 Finish +120 at DK
Gary Woodland Top 30 Finish +105 at DK

DK could offer slightly better odds on those top 30 finishes, I will admit, but I have a feeling they got got once or twice, lol. Just the same, those odds I picked up will work here.

This is the card I've put together.

Good Luck.