NFL Divisions Ranked 2023

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Ranking eight NFL divisions from best to worst for 2023 season​

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One of these years, one of the NFL's eight divisions is going to have four playoff teams. This became possible two years ago when the league expanded the postseason field to seven teams in each conference, and it has fascinated me ever since. And since you've clicked on my story, sorry, you're stuck reading about stuff that fascinates me.

It could be this season, right? I mean, it could be any year, so of course it could be this year. And if it were to happen this year, the next question is which division would it be?

To that end, we present our annual effort to rank all eight NFL divisions from best to worst. We do this with the help of ESPN's Football Power Index rankings, which rate all 32 teams' true strength on a net points scale, with an overall expected points margin against an average opponent on a neutral field. FPI projects the strength of every team's offense, defense and special teams and combines those for an overall rating. As great as FPI is, though, there are factors it doesn't consider, so I reserve the right to stray from the strict formula as necessary.


This is an exercise that undoubtedly will produce nothing but universal agreement and provoke no argument whatsoever. Let's start with the division at the top:

 

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8. NFC SOUTH​

FPI ratings (minus-13.9 overall):

1. New Orleans Saints: minus-1.8 (22nd in NFL)
2. Atlanta Falcons: minus-3.2 (26th)
3. Carolina Panthers: minus-3.4 (27th)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: minus-5.5 (30th)

This is the only division without a single team with a positive overall FPI. The Saints lead the way, likely thanks to their veteran defense and the fact Derek Carr is the most proven quarterback in the division. Atlanta is loaded with exciting young skill position players, but their signal-caller is Desmond Ridder, who's very much an unknown, and FPI rates the Falcons 31st in the league in defense (minus-1.6).

Carolina is rolling with No. 1 pick Bryce Young and an experienced coaching staff that believes it can contend right away. But FPI is unimpressed, rating the Panthers' offense 27th (minus-3.0).

The Buccaneers will go with Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask as the replacement for retired Tom Brady as they take it on the chin with dead-money salary cap charges this year and look ahead to what they hope is a brighter future.

All of that said, don't be surprised if these teams finish with better records than you expect. FPI projects the Saints to have the easiest schedule in the entire league and the Falcons to have the second-easiest. Carolina's schedule rates as the fourth-easiest, and Tampa Bay's ranks as the eighth-easiest. Remember, the Bucs won this division last season with a sub-.500 record, so they're stuck playing the other first-place teams in the NFC

 

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7. AFC SOUTH​

FPI ratings (minus-13.8 overall):

1. Jacksonville Jaguars: 0.9 (12th in NFL)
2. Tennessee Titans: minus-3.5 (28th)
3. Indianapolis Colts: minus-5.1 (29th)
4. Houston Texans: minus-6.1 (32nd)

Here's where it starts to get pretty grim. FPI ranks these last two divisions fairly similarly overall, but I'm putting the AFC South ahead of the NFC South because this is the division more likely to produce at least one very good team. That team is Jacksonville, which won the division with a late-season surge last season and is favored to repeat. With a Super Bowl-winning coach in Doug Pederson, a highly-thought-of quarterback in Trevor Lawrence and a second year for everyone together and in the same system, the arrow is pointing up for the Jaguars.

The Titans looked like a rebuilding team for much of the offseason, but they didn't move on from Ryan Tannehill even after taking Will Levis high in the second round. And late in the offseason, they added veteran wideout DeAndre Hopkins, signaling that coach Mike Vrabel isn't interested in rebuilding. The Titans intend to contend, but after last season's second-half fade, it's fair to wonder whether they have enough. FPI projects them to have the No. 26 offense (minus-2.7) and No. 24 defense (minus-0.9).


The Colts and Texans are breaking in rookie quarterbacks. Indianapolis has a lot of veterans who underachieved last season, and if they bounce back, the team could surprise. Anthony Richardson is loaded with ability; maybe he'll develop quickly and this will be a surprise team. The Texans built what they believe to be a strong offensive line in front of rookie C.J. Stroud, and they're likely to play solid defense for new coach DeMeco Ryans, but they look a little short in terms of offensive playmakers.

 

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6. NFC NORTH​

FPI ratings (minus-3.3 overall):

1. Detroit Lions: 1.4 (11th in NFL)
2. Minnesota Vikings: 0.5 (15th)
3. Chicago Bears: minus-2.4 (24th)
4. Green Bay Packers: minus-2.8 (25th)

This is the first division we've listed that doesn't have a single team in the top 10 in the league in FPI's overall ranking. The Lions are just outside, at No. 11, but they're unbalanced -- they rank seventh on offense (2.5) and 27th (minus-1.3) on defense. FPI appears unimpressed with the work they did to fix the secondary in the offseason. The offense should score points, although if you're skeptical about Geno Smith repeating last year's performance, why wouldn't you be skeptical about Jared Goff doing the same? Detroit is an awfully popular division favorite for a team that hasn't won a division since the 1993 NFC Central. No, that's not a misprint.

Talk about disrespect! The Vikings went 13-4 last season and won this division, right? Of course, they also gave up more points than they allowed, which makes that 13-4 record look like an all-time outlier. Minnesota's offseason had more notable subtractions than additions, and you wonder whether the organization is thinking about spinning into rebuild mode. But there are still options there on offense that make the Vikings dangerous, and new coordinator Brian Flores should get the defense into shape. If the Lions aren't what we think they are, Minnesota stands in a decent position to repeat as division champ.


The Bears did a lot of work this offseason to improve around Justin Fields, but they're probably still at least a year away. And the Packers ... you tell me if you can predict with any confidence what Jordan Love is going to be in his first year as a starter. I don't think it'd be a major surprise if Green Bay contended in the division, but it also wouldn't be a surprise if its young offense needed some time to come together.

 

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5. NFC WEST​

FPI ratings (minus-4.5 overall):

1. San Francisco 49ers: 3.6 (5th in NFL)
2. Seattle Seahawks: 0.1 (18th)
3. Los Angeles Rams: minus-2.4 (23rd)
4. Arizona Cardinals: minus-5.8 (31st)

Here's another spot where I'm going to depart from FPI, as the NFC North has a higher overall rating than does the West. I think more highly of the Seahawks (and maybe a little less highly of the Lions and the Vikings) than FPI does, but we'll get to that in a second. The 49ers look like the class of this division. FPI rates them fifth on defense (1.5) and eighth on offense (2.3). The prospect of Christian McCaffrey in Kyle Shanahan's offense for an entire season is exciting. If the coach were anyone other than Shanahan, the quarterback situation would be a red flag, but we tend to have faith in his ability to win with whoever's back there. Brock Purdy did nothing but win last season until he got hurt in the NFC Championship Game.

I was surprised by FPI's middling rating of Seattle. The Seahawks are 23rd in defense (minus-0.8), but although they couldn't stop the run last season, they believe a lot of that had to do with players transitioning to a new scheme, which won't be an issue now. As for their 13th-ranked offense (0.9), I have to believe that's rooted in skepticism about Geno Smith's ability to deliver a second straight top-seven QBR season. I'm a little more optimistic about Smith than most, and they added players around him this offseason who will only help. Personally, I believe the Seahawks belong in the conversation -- along with the 49ers and Cowboys -- about which teams can knock off the Eagles in the NFC.


The Rams and Cardinals look bound for Rebuild City. Their rosters are stuffed with young, unproven players at key positions, and the rankings reflect that. I give the Rams a little bit of a bump because they won the Super Bowl 18 months ago and they still have Cooper Kupp and Aaron Donald. But it could be a rough one out there. The Cardinals? Well, they have two first-round picks next year ...

 

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4. NFC EAST​

FPI ratings (7.1 overall):

1. Philadelphia Eagles: 5.0 (3rd in NFL)
2. Dallas Cowboys: 3.0 (8th)
3. New York Giants: 0.5 (14th)
4. Washington Commanders: minus-1.4 (21st)

The Eagles and the Cowboys rank third and eighth, respectively, in FPI's overall projections. The Eagles are third in offense (3.5) and seventh (1.4) in defense. The Cowboys are ninth in both offense (1.7) and defense (1.3), the latter of which surprised me based on their offseason improvements.

Philadelphia is trying to buck a significant trend and become the first repeat NFC East champion since 2004, when they did it. They're deserving favorites, and if they have an Achilles' heel it's likely how young they look on defense all of a sudden. (Of course, the same could have been said for the Chiefs last season, and that worked out fine.) Dallas' roster is solid, but there are legitimate questions about what effect the change at offensive playcaller from Kellen Moore to Mike McCarthy will have on an offense that scored the second-most points in the league over the past four seasons.

The Giants made the playoffs a year ago, earning Coach of the Year honors for first-year head coach Brian Daboll. Can he work his magic again with a team that looks improved-but-maybe-still-not-all-the-way-there on offense? Can Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley stay healthy all season again? New York ranks smack in the middle of the league in both offense (0.9) and defense (minus-0.5), and that likely is right for a team that finished 9-7-1.


The Commanders, who will be led by untested quarterback Sam Howell, bring up the rear here, but they're far from a run-of-the-mill last-place team. Washington's defense (1.8) is the third-best in the league behind the Jets and Broncos. Its offense (minus-3.0) is better than only four teams -- Arizona, Indianapolis, Tampa Bay and Houston. If Howell is better than we expect, there's a chance this could be one of 2023's surprise teams.

 

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3. AFC WEST​

FPI ratings (9.7 overall):

1. Kansas City Chiefs: 6.4 (1st in NFL)
2. Los Angeles Chargers: 3.0 (7th)
3. Denver Broncos: 0.9 (13th)
4. Las Vegas Raiders: minus-0.6 (20th)

The defending Super Bowl champs are the reason this division ranks so high. The Chiefs' overall FPI is the same as that of the entire AFC North and is higher than those of five other entire divisions. Their offense (6.7) is the best in the league by a mile -- Buffalo is second at 3.8. They are middle of the pack on defense (minus-0.2), and that would take a hit if the Chris Jones holdout wears on into the season. The Chiefs are favored to repeat as Super Bowl champs for good reason, and the rest of the division is chasing them.

If there's an on-paper team that looks good enough to challenge Kansas City, it is the loaded Chargers, who rank fourth on offense (3.3) and right there with the Chiefs on defense (minus-0.2), according to FPI. Of course, they are the annual on-paper champs. Something always seems to go wrong there. But this is a summer exercise, looking at rosters and projecting what they're capable of, and L.A. has stars all over the field.

Denver's positive FPI is all because of its defense (2.3), which ranks second in the league behind the Jets. The questions in Denver are with the Broncos' 21st-ranked offense (minus-1.2), which would have to improve drastically over its 2022 performance to finish that high this season. Can Sean Payton rescue Russell Wilson and put enough points on the board for the defense to carry the team?

As for the Raiders, I'm having a hard time seeing where they're good. FPI has them 15th in offense (0.7) and 29th in defense (minus-1.4), but FPI doesn't take into account the inevitable and puzzling Josh McDaniels tinkering sure to come. If you're looking for a reason the AFC North ranks ahead of the West in these rankings, I'd refer you to the coaching résumés of the guys in charge of the No. 4-ranked teams in each division.

 

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2. AFC NORTH​

FPI ratings (6.4 overall):

1. Cincinnati Bengals: 4.6 (4th in NFL)
2. Baltimore Ravens: 2.0 (10th)
3. Cleveland Browns: 0.2 (17th)
4. Pittsburgh Steelers: minus-0.4 (19th)

Here's my first divergence from FPI, which ranks this division fourth. This is one of four divisions (along with the AFC East, the NFC East and the AFC West) in which at least three teams have positive FPI rankings. It just feels more balanced top to bottom. Frankly, this one and the AFC East are the only two from which I could imagine all four teams qualifying for the postseason.

Two-time defending division champ Cincinnati ranks at the top, sporting the league's No. 5 offense (3.0) and No. 8 defense (1.4), according to FPI's projections. The Bengals look to have one of the NFL's best rosters, and they have proved they know how to finish on top. Assuming quarterback Joe Burrow recovers from his calf injury in time to start the season, they have the right to consider themselves legitimate Super Bowl contenders.

The Ravens have a middle-of-the-pack offense (0.6), according to FPI, and that feels right, since they have all kinds of question marks at receiver and running back and they're learning a new offense this offseason. They were a thorn in Cincinnati's side last season, and they're well-coached. So if Odell Beckham Jr. and Rashod Bateman and J.K. Dobbins and -- oh, yeah -- Lamar Jackson can stay healthy, Baltimore's upside is high.

Cleveland and Pittsburgh are mysteries. Will Deshaun Watson play better than he did in six games last season? Will new coordinator Jim Schwartz fix the Browns' defense? Can Kenny Pickett and a passing offense that was one of the league's worst in 2022 make a leap? Is this the year Mike Tomlin finally finishes a season with a losing record?


For me, the back-end teams in this division (again, on paper) are better than the worst-looking teams in the AFC West and the NFC East, which is why I ranked this division higher.

 

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1. AFC EAST​

FPI ratings (12.1 overall):

1. Buffalo Bills: 5.6 (2nd in NFL)
2. New York Jets: 3.2 (6th)
3. Miami Dolphins: 3.0 (9th)
4. New England Patriots: 0.3 (16th)

This feels like a slam dunk. It's the only division in which every team has a positive FPI rating. According to FPI's projections, the three-time defending champion Bills rank second in the league in offense (3.8) and sixth in defense (1.4). Maybe it's Buffalo fatigue, but all of the attention the Jets and Dolphins are getting this offseason has made it feel as if people are overlooking the quality of the Bills' roster.

Miami's offense ranks sixth in the league (2.6), and the Dolphins are hoping new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio will help fix their issues on the other side of the ball. The Jets have the No. 1 defense in the league (2.4), and obviously the addition of Aaron Rodgers at quarterback is expected to move them up on offense. The range of potential outcomes for the Dolphins and the Jets is extremely wide. Tua Tagovailoa's health and the state of the Jets' offensive line loom as unanswerable questions with answers on which those teams' seasons could ride or fall. But the upside for both is high.

The Patriots rank fourth in the league on defense (1.6), per FPI's ratings. The offense does not appear, on paper, to be in the class of the other teams in the AFC East, but at the very least New England is likely to have an elite defense that keeps it in games.


On paper, just looking at the caliber of the teams themselves, it would be easy to say this is the division most likely to land four teams in the postseason. The problem is, all four of its teams rank in the top five in the league in FPI's toughest strength of schedule rankings. When all is said and done, the win-loss records might not reflect the idea that this division was the one most loaded with contender candidates. As of now, in the middle of August, before anyone has won or lost anything, that's what it is.