Justin Perri
CINCINNATI @ CLEVELAND | 08/09 | 6:10 PM EDT
CINCINNATI -172
ANALYSIS: Laying the juice here instead of the run line, where the Reds burned me on Sunday. Although Cincinnati is on fire, winning five straight and 10 of its last 12, it has only covered 40 percent of the time on the run line as a favorite this season. Reds RHP Luis Castillo has been solid over the last few months, and that is highlighted by his 4.9 percent barrel rate and .356 xSLG percentage on the year. By comparison, Indians LHP Sam Hentges has a 12.3 percent barrel rate and a .497 xSLG to accompany his 7.86 ERA, all of which are in the bottom 10 percent of the league. Back the Reds to keep their winning streak alive.
MILWAUKEE @ CHI. CUBS | 08/09 | 8:05 PM EDT
MILWAUKEE -1.5
ANALYSIS: Milwaukee RHP Freddy Peralta has been one of the best pitchers in the league this season, and it's highly likely he dominates the lowly Cubs. Peralta has allowed more than two runs in only three of his 20 starts this year and more than three just once. He also is dominant in night games, posting a 1.88 ERA and 0.72 WHIP in 11 outings. The Cubs have lost 14 of their last 15 games against teams with winning records, while the Brewers have covered in 62 percent of their road games. Take Milwaukee -1.5 runs at -130.
MIAMI @ SAN DIEGO | 08/09 | 10:10 PM EDT
SAN DIEGO -1.5
ANALYSIS: Padres RHP Joe Musgrove has been on fire recently, as he's allowed just five hits over his last two starts. On July 23, he limited Miami to two runs en route to victory. The Marlins will be dealing with a massive elevation change, having played in Colorado on Sunday, and that should make it all the more difficult to hit Musgrove's slider/curveball combo. San Diego's offense is elite, even without Fernando Tatis Jr., and should be able to score on Miami RHP Zach Thompson, who allowed three runs over five innings the last time he faced the Padres. Take San Diego -1.5 runs at -115.