Service Plays - Monday 8/9/21

Jackofhearts

Moderator
Insider Sports Report
D* San Diego (Musgrove) -1.5 runs -105 over Miami (Thompson)
Range: +115 to -130

National Sports Service
D* N.Y. Yankees (Taillon)/Kansas City (Hernandez) UNDER 9.5

Primetime Sports Picks
D Unit --> Kansas City (Hernandez) +1.5 runs -105 over N.Y. Yankees (Taillon)
C Unit --> Miami (Thompson)/San Diego (Musgrove) UNDER 7.5

Top Rank Sports Picks
D★ Miami (Thompson)/San Diego (Musgrove) OVER 7.5
 

Jackofhearts

Moderator
Dr. Chuck

Game: (903) Miami Marlins at (904) San Diego Padres
Date/Time: Aug 9 2021 10:10 PM EDT
Play Rating: J units
Play: San Diego Padres -1.5 (-110) Z Thompson (RHP), J Musgrove (RHP) Must Start
Fish get unabashedly swept in Coors over the weekend and now on no rest head to Petco to face a Padres team sans El Nino and the Marlins arrive with a month long LOW -22.45 VMI!
Musgrove has been basically excellent and while his 3.83 FIP is worse in the second half than his first half 3.4….he is a ++ starter at home following a couple of fantastic performances over the weekend by Darvish and Snell….the 3rd stud Dads starter gets a go against a similarly poor opposing lineup…at home….and no rest for either team into this opening series game on Monday night!
Jazz is ill and may not play….Alfaro is on the IL…then there's our boy Zach Thompson…who I hate to fade…but has doubled his FIP to 4.72 since the break!
More to come…but oh baby…the Marlins are about as unlikely to eclipse 2 runs as any team for the past several days;
 

Jackofhearts

Moderator
pickstennis

WTA - SINGLES: Montreal
Marino - Keys
Under 19.5

WTA - SINGLES: Montreal (Canada),
Sakkari - Bouzkova
Under 19.5
 

Jackofhearts

Moderator
Larry Hartstein

CHI. WHITE SOX @ MINNESOTA | 08/09 | 8:10 PM EDT
CHI. WHITE SOX -1.5
ANALYSIS: The White Sox are 12-4 against Minnesota and in those 16 games, they've averaged 6.9 runs while hitting .289. Now Chicago gets to face youngsters Beau Burrows (11.00 ERA) and Charlie Barnes (6.23 ERA) as the first two pitchers in a Twins' bullpen game. Back Lucas Giolito and the Sox on the run line at -107.

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Stephen Oh

MIAMI @ SAN DIEGO | 08/09 | 10:10 PM EDT
MIAMI +1.5
ANALYSIS: My model says the Marlins cover in well over 60 percent of the simulations, so you're getting strong value with them at this number. Miami hosted San Diego for a four-game series last month, and two of the contests were one-run decisions. The Marlins won the final two games of that set after losing the first two. In addition, two of the last four games Padres RHP Joe Musgrove started were decided by a single run, including his turn against Oakland on Wednesday. Take the Marlins +1.5 runs at -110.

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Justin Perri

N.Y. YANKEES @ KANSAS CITY | 08/09 | 8:10 PM EDT
OVER 10
ANALYSIS: This is a bit of a contrarian play given how these two teams have done on totals the last few weeks, but there's expected to be a strong wind blowing out to left field and it is going to be hot in Kansas City. To put it in other terms, it's a great day for the Over. Getting this at 10 is solid as I make the number closer to 10.5, and there's a good chance to see the score get run up at Kauffman Stadium, which already is a great hitter's park.
 

Jackofhearts

Moderator
Justin Perri

CINCINNATI @ CLEVELAND | 08/09 | 6:10 PM EDT
CINCINNATI -172
ANALYSIS: Laying the juice here instead of the run line, where the Reds burned me on Sunday. Although Cincinnati is on fire, winning five straight and 10 of its last 12, it has only covered 40 percent of the time on the run line as a favorite this season. Reds RHP Luis Castillo has been solid over the last few months, and that is highlighted by his 4.9 percent barrel rate and .356 xSLG percentage on the year. By comparison, Indians LHP Sam Hentges has a 12.3 percent barrel rate and a .497 xSLG to accompany his 7.86 ERA, all of which are in the bottom 10 percent of the league. Back the Reds to keep their winning streak alive.

MILWAUKEE @ CHI. CUBS | 08/09 | 8:05 PM EDT
MILWAUKEE -1.5
ANALYSIS: Milwaukee RHP Freddy Peralta has been one of the best pitchers in the league this season, and it's highly likely he dominates the lowly Cubs. Peralta has allowed more than two runs in only three of his 20 starts this year and more than three just once. He also is dominant in night games, posting a 1.88 ERA and 0.72 WHIP in 11 outings. The Cubs have lost 14 of their last 15 games against teams with winning records, while the Brewers have covered in 62 percent of their road games. Take Milwaukee -1.5 runs at -130.

MIAMI @ SAN DIEGO | 08/09 | 10:10 PM EDT
SAN DIEGO -1.5
ANALYSIS: Padres RHP Joe Musgrove has been on fire recently, as he's allowed just five hits over his last two starts. On July 23, he limited Miami to two runs en route to victory. The Marlins will be dealing with a massive elevation change, having played in Colorado on Sunday, and that should make it all the more difficult to hit Musgrove's slider/curveball combo. San Diego's offense is elite, even without Fernando Tatis Jr., and should be able to score on Miami RHP Zach Thompson, who allowed three runs over five innings the last time he faced the Padres. Take San Diego -1.5 runs at -115.
 

Jackofhearts

Moderator
Docs MLB

D - CUBS +165 OVER BREWERS
D - PADRES -1.5, RL, -120 OVER MARLINS
C - TWINS +175 OVER WHITE SOX
C - INDIANS +160 OVER REDS
 

Bettor Days

Member
Matt Severance

FEATURED PICK
CINCINNATI @ CLEVELAND | 08/09 | 6:10 PM EDT
CINCINNATI -160
ANALYSIS: This is a one-game makeup series. One would think I had learned my lesson on the Reds and their gas-can bullpen, but they are rolling right now (nine games over .500 for first time in eight years) get to add the DH and have the massive edge on the mound with Luis Castillo over Sam Hentges (7.86 ERA). Castillo had a 7.33 ERA this year in his first 11 starts and it's 1.70 in his past 10. Cleveland is 2-7 in its past nine home games vs. a team with a winning record.

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Matt Snyder

N.Y. YANKEES @ KANSAS CITY | 08/09 | 8:10 PM EDT
N.Y. YANKEES -177
ANALYSIS: Look, I get it. The Yankees' offense is not to be trusted right now, especially with Anthony Rizzo out, and Aroldis Chapman is hurt. Those factors mean the odds trimmed down to a workable play, though. The Yankees are the far superior team and Jameson Taillon takes the hill. Taillon has a 1.45 ERA while holding opponents to a .182/.247/.303 slash in his last six starts -- and though his year-long splits show he's far worse on the road, four of those six starts came on the road. He gets a Royals' offense that is 14th of 15 AL teams in runs and 13th in OPS.

MILWAUKEE @ CHI. CUBS | 08/09 | 8:05 PM EDT
MILWAUKEE -180
ANALYSIS: The odds aren't nearly enough in favor of the Brewers here. They are the much better team and it's not even close. Freddy Peralta has been dominant this season. In four previous starts against the Cubs, he's pitched to a 2.14 ERA and 1.00 WHIP with 33 strikeouts in 21 innings. Overall, he's been one of the best pitchers in baseball, allowing an MLB-best 4.2 hits per nine innings. These aren't the same Cubs that he stifled earlier this season, either. They are far worse after trading three of their best bats. They've lost 10 of their last 12 and are a good team to ride. Strike while the iron is hot and pick the Cubs to lose.

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Micah Roberts

CINCINNATI @ CLEVELAND | 08/09 | 6:10 PM EDT
CINCINNATI -177
ANALYSIS: The Indians have lost three straight behind Sam Hentges. He allowed 14 earned runs across those starts and didn’t make it out of the fourth in any of them. Since May 29, Luis Castillo has been one of the best NL starters, allowing two runs or fewer in 10 of his 13 starts, and the Reds have won his last three. The Reds also have a five-game win streak with the NL wildcard in sight. Take the Reds to win.

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Kyle Akins

MILWAUKEE @ CHI. CUBS | 08/09 | 8:05 PM EDT
OVER 9
ANALYSIS: Chicago RHP Alec Mills has really been pitching to contact in recent outings. He has worked 17 innings over his last three starts and recorded only four strikeouts. While it has worked out reasonably well for Mills in those games, do not expect that to last. The Cubs managed only six hits in Sunday's 9-3 loss to the White Sox. Since Apr. 17, they are 8-0 OU (4.94 rpg) at home following a game as underdogs in which they had six or fewer hits.
 

Bettor Days

Member
Andrew McInnis

D% Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres
1H Total Under 4.0 (-115) Z Thompson (RHP), J Musgrove (RHP) Must Start
 

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