The top sportsbooks have released their NBA odds for today’s Game 1 action between the Pelicans and Thunder. For your NBA best bets, I will recommend investing in the Under.
Also, if you’re considering placing bets on the following matchups, continue to read for a detailed analysis.
NBA Best Bet: Under 214.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Sunday, April 21, 2024 – 09:30 PM ET at Paycom Center
The First Angle
The NBA is very much a star-driven league. The value provided by star players will typically not be replaced.
In this game, I find that, especially, both teams top scorers will struggle to score or fail to score altogether.
Zion’s Injury
Pelicans star Zion Williamson is out for this game due to a hamstring strain. His absence is significant because he was the team’s leading scorer in the regular season – with 22.9 points per game.
We can see the impact of his presence or absence in the regular season history between these two teams.
These teams played three times. Zion played in two of those games. In the two games in which Zion played, he scored 20 and 29 points, respectively. When he scored 20 points, the Pelicans scored 110 points. When he scored 29 points, they scored 112 points.
Tellingly, in the game that he missed altogether, the Pelicans scored 83 points. New Orleans does not have a player who can come close to replicating Zion’s inside scoring prowess.
Shai Glgeous-Alexander’s Outlook
By far the most important scorer for the Thunder is their point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. With 30.1 points per game, he averaged eleven more points than any of his teammates in the regular season.
His outlook today is negative because, as measured by field goal percentage, he has the most trouble scoring against the Pelican than he does against any other team.
The fact that his field goal percentage is lowest against the Pelicans indicates his struggle to be efficient against their defense.
He specifically struggles against Herb Jones.
Jones is an extremely underrated defender. He repeatedly locks down high-caliber scoring guards, with Indiana’s Tyrese Haliburton being another victim of his.
His effectiveness as a defender is visible on every inch of the court.
The Pelicans will need their defense to be at its best in order to compete with the Thunder without Zion’s scoring prowess. Jones will be a key part of this endeavor.
Playoff Basketball
The second major angle primarily concerns the Thunder. They rely on transition scoring more than any other team.
However, the game slows down in the playoffs, inherently placing more value on half-court offense.
NBA Best Bet
The nature of playoff basketball is going to make the Thunder less comfortable on offense.
This young team will have the most trouble adjusting to the reality of playoff basketball in its first playoff game.
NBA Best Bet: Under 214.5 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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