The top-rated sportsbooks have released their NBA odds for today’s Game 2 action between the Indiana Pacers and the Milwaukee Bucks. For your best bets, I will recommend investing in Milwaukee for this matchup.
If you’re thinking about placing bets on other matchups for the NBA playoffs, keep reading for a comprehensive analysis.
NBA Best Bet: Bucks ML (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Tuesday, April 23, 2024 – 08:30 PM ET at Fiserv Forum
The Value of Playoff Experience
Game 1 between these teams showed that it pays to have playoff experience. It provided an important betting lesson for all of us: we need to respect not simply the team with veterans who have played in the playoffs but more importantly the team with playoff experience and that sort of “playoff dawg” attitude.
Damian Lillard, Patrick Beverley and other Bucks players clearly have that attitude. They embrace the playoff atmosphere.
Conversely, Pacers point guard Tyrese Haliburton hides in his shell like a turtle: the moment is too big for him, so he lets his teammates take more shots. He shoots less, and he even creates less.
Now, I’m not going to stake my bet on this. The Pacers, mentally speaking, should be more prepared for Game 2 than they were on Game 1.
But it’s a bonus consideration in Milwaukee’s favor that Indiana still isn’t ready for playoff basketball. After all, down 1-0 in the series, the pressure is on Indiana to get a win, especially with Giannis, who had demolished the Pacers during the regular season, likely to miss tonight’s game.
Containing Haliburton
I like Milwaukee because its victory in Game 1 was not simply a product of Indiana’s inexperience.
Importantly, Milwaukee is led by a head coach with a more consistent and overall better playoff history than Indiana’s, the latter having won his sole title when he could count on legend Dirk Nowitzki to lead his team.
Thanks to their coaching advantage, the Bucks showed tactical intelligence, containing Haliburton in a way that they will replicate.
They bothered him on every inch of the court, relying on good individual defenders, such as three-time All-Defensive team member and notorious pest Pat Bev, and on good team defense. The Bucks blitzed him, trapped him with double teams, and attacked him with their length.
Haliburton’s struggles against the length and physicality of Milwaukee evokes his regular-season struggles against teams like Orlando.
So, he’s been contained multiple times before. Milwaukee’s effort was no fluke but something that it had the personnel and tactical know-how to accomplish. Haliburton is easily one of Indiana’s top two scorers, and he is his team’s top creator, so taking him out of the game is critical. Pascal Siakam will not beat the Bucks by himself.
Milwaukee’s Spread Offense
The strength of Indiana’s defense lies in its rim protection provided by shot-blocker Myles Turner. But what happens when Turner is pinned to the perimeter? Then he can’t protect the rim, and you get a layup line.
Milwaukee has too many perimeter threats on offense, one being Turner’s counterpart, Brook Lopez.
Indiana’s defense is conceptually focused on taking away the opponent’s three-point shots. So Milwaukee’s prowess along the perimeter is something that really bothers Indiana.
The Bucks shoot 38.8 percent from deep and are clearly still able to thrive from deep without having Giannis around to pose a threat inside.
Dame Time
Damian Lillard frustrated the Pacers with his shooting prowess. When they attacked him behind the arc, he could simply drive inside.
Indiana does not have a player who can guard him. The Pacers will ideally want to funnel him to rim-protector Turner, except Turner is going to be pinned away to the perimeter.
One further reason why I like Milwaukee tonight is that Indiana in the second half gave away its defensive game plan for tonight.
The Pacers double-teamed Lillard and appeared to have success doing so, except the Bucks were clearly coasting with their gigantic lead.
NBA Best Bet
Milwaukee is going to have a plan for Indiana’s double-team strategy. Lillard has zero reason to be concerned because he’s seen this plan plenty of times before and mastered it.
An example is in March when not only Giannis but also midrange maestro Khris Middleton was injured.
In that game, despite their various forms of defensive pressure, Lillard scored 41 points, helping his team defeat the Clippers by seven.
NBA Best Bet: Bucks ML (-115) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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