NBA Pick: Pacers ML (-126) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NBA odds for Game 1 between the Pacers and Bucks. For your best bets, I will recommend the Pacers.
If you’re looking to bet on any of the other matchups for Saturday, check out our video analysis, which includes a look at Suns vs. Timberwolves and 76ers vs. Knicks.
Also, if you’re considering placing bets on these matchups, continue reading for a detailed analysis.
Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Sunday, April 21, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Fiserv Forum
Regular Season History
A look at the regular season history between these teams might suggest that the “over” is reasonable. However, one has to consider the role that Milwaukee superstar Giannis played in these games. He owned Indiana’s defense, scoring as many as 64 points.
Giannis is the type of player who is so good that general matchup considerations can become irrelevant. Without Giannis – ESPN insiders indicate that he is likely going to miss this game due to a calf injury – we can emphasize those matchup considerations in our handicapping.
Milwaukee’s Offense
The matchup consideration begins with the fact that Milwaukee’s offense, especially without the threat inside posed by Giannis, relies heavily on three-point shooting. Milwaukee attempts the fifth-most threes.
Indiana’s Defense
The Pacers guard the three-point line aggressively. You see this determination in the way they handle on -and off- ball screening actions, and you see it in general. They allow the fewest three-point attempts overall. Moreover, they allow the fewest wide-open three-point attempts and the second-fewest open ones.
These stats indicate that they excel at running teams off the three-point line and at contesting three-point shots. By taking away what Milwaukee primarily wants to do on offense, they will make the Bucks uncomfortable. They’ll force the Bucks to score inside where they won’t be able to rely on Giannis.
My doubts about Milwaukee’s offense in this matchup entail that I don’t like the “over”
Indiana’s Offensive Versatility
The Pacers primarily want to attack the basket.
Milwaukee’s determination to prevent shots at the basket might make this game seem like a good matchup for its defense. However, the Bucks will want to rely on their ball-screen defense in order to thwart Indiana’s endeavor to attack the basket, yet they are impotent in this respect.
Indiana has demonstrated that its ball-screen duo of Tyrese Haliburton and Myles Turner is too tough for Milwaukee center Brook Lopez to handle. Haliburton’s success with ball-screens against the Bucks largely explains his ability to amass high point and assist totals against them.
Indiana will still be able to thrive inside primarily because of the Haliburton and Turner duo, although the addition of the very productive Pascal Siakam will also put a lot of pressure on Milwaukee’s interior defense, which will miss Giannis and which has not seen Siakam in a Pacers uniform before. Siakam is averaging 20.4 points per game for April.
Indiana’s threats along the perimeter, especially Haliburton, will complement its inside scoring prowess against a Bucks defense that misses its now former stout on-ball defender Jrue Holiday.
NBA Pick: Pacers ML (-126) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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