We have an extra big card on Sunday with 16 Major League Baseball matchups due to a makeup doubleheader between the Mariners and Rockies. After going 3-0 on Friday, we are back with our three plays for the day that we feel hold the most betting value according to the current MLB odds at the top-rated sportsbooks.
We have nothing but totals on Sunday, as our final value bet is another one in San Diego. This time, our model likes a total in the matchup between the Blue Jays and Padres at 4:10 PM ET.
If you want more analysis, check out our MLB best bets for the following matchups:
MLB Best Bet: Under 8 (-103) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Diego Padres
Sunday, April 21, 2024 – 02:10 PM ET at PETCO Park
The Under is now 5-2 in the last seven games at Petco Park with the Padres scoring three runs or less in all five of the Unders. We expect more of the same Sunday with Joe Musgrove on the mound hosting Chris Bassitt and the Blue Jays.
Strikeouts Should Come
Musgrove is off to a disappointing start in 2024 after posting both an ERA and xFIP below 4.00 each of the last four seasons. So far, he is 2-2 with 6.29 ERA and 4.87 xFIP. But at least the ERA/xFIP differential is a good sign, and the xFIP has been better at 4.38 in his starts here at home.
Joe has been unlucky with a BABIP allowed of .397, although the drop in his strikeout rate to 7.40/9 from 8.97 last year is a bit concerning. However, that concern is alleviated somewhat by his swinging strike rate being up to 11.9% from 11.4% last season. That has continued an upward trend, as last year was up from 11.0% in 2022. That trend points to an expected rise in the strikeout rate to come.
Rounding to Form
Bassitt is a bit underrated for a guy that has posted six straight seasons with an ERA below 4.00 and with a career ERA of 3.50 over 959.2 innings. Yes, that ERA is currently at 4.03 along with a 4.24 xFIP, but Chris is coming along nicely after two bad starts to begin the year.
After allowing eight earned runs in 9.1 innings his first two starts, he regrouped his last two outings allowing just two runs in 13 innings with 13 strikeouts. His overall strikeout rate so far of 8.87/9 is up from 8.37 last season, so Bassitt should be fine going forward. And let us not forget about the Padres scoring woes at home to help Bassitt’s cause.
MLB Best Bet
With the combination of Bassitt rounding to form, Musgrove’s improving swinging strike rate and the Padres scoring three runs or less in five of the last seven home games, go Under at Petco.
Predicted Score: Blue Jays 4 – Padres 2
MLB Best Bet: Under 8 (-103) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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