We have an extra big card on Sunday with 16 Major League Baseball matchups due to a makeup doubleheader between the Mariners and Rockies. After going 3-0 on Friday, we are back with our three plays for the day that we feel hold the most betting value according to the current MLB odds at the top-rated sportsbooks.
Our next best bet for Sunday is in a marquee matchup scheduled for 4:10 PM ET. Our proprietary model sees value in another total in Los Angeles when the Mets visit the Dodgers. If you’re looking to bet on more games, check out our analysis for:
MLB Best Bet: Over 9 (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Sunday, April 21, 2024 – 04:10 PM ET at Dodger Stadium
The first two games of this series between the Mets and Dodgers in Los Angeles both went Over the total. We are betting on more of the same for Sunday when Adrian Houser takes on Tyler Glasnow.
Hot Team, Cold Pitcher
The Mets are the hottest team in baseball, taking the first two games in LA to improve to 12-3 since an 0-5 start. However, Houser has not contributed much to that success as the starting pitcher in two of the three losses. He comes in at 0-1 overall with a 4.70 ERA and an even worse 5.58 xFIP.
And that xFIP is not a fluke when considering Adrian’s high walk rate of 5.87/9 is higher than his low strikeout rate of 5.28/9. That makes Houser just about the only Mets starter unable to take full advantage of a Dodgers lineup that has a high 24.3% strikeout rate. The Dodgers are still fourth in the majors in wRC+ against righties at 115 despite the strikeouts. Their offense should play better than that with fewer strikeouts vs. Houser.
Getting Dinged Up
Now, we are big fans of Glasnow and his K/BB ratio of 10.55/2.79 per nine innings while posting a 3.72 ERA and better 3.11 xFIP. However, one kink in the armor has been a decrease in his groundball rate from 51.2% last year with the Rays down to 40.8% this first season with the Dodgers. And quite a few of the added balls hit in the year have resulted in dingers, with his home run rate allowed standing at 1.24/9.
That is not ideal vs. this hot Mets offense. New York stands with a wRC+ of 105 against right-handers overall, which is already 5% above average.
MLB Best Bet
However, that figure has ballooned to 122 since the 0-5 start, during which time the Mets offense has the third-lowest strikeout rate and highest walk rate in baseball.
So, with the Mets capable of staying hot offensively even against Glasnow and Houser being the weakest link for New York, bet the Over.
Predicted Score: Dodgers 7 – Mets 5
MLB Best Bet: Over 9 (-115) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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