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UFC Fight Night expert picks and best bets: Islam Makhachev vs. Bobby Green
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALA highly impactful contest between Islam Makhachev and Bobby Green will headline Saturday's UFC Fight Night at the Apex in Las Vegas (ESPN+, 7 p.m. ET; prelims at 4 p.m. ET).
The main event was originally supposed to feature Makhachev (21-1) against Beneil Dariush (21-4-1) in a likely No. 1 contender's bout for the next shot at the UFC lightweight championship, but Dariush was forced to withdraw last week because of a broken fibula. Green (29-12-1) agreed to step in on short notice in a 160-pound catchweight fight.
Makhachev, a teammate and protege of retired undefeated champion Khabib Nurmagomedov, is ESPN's No. 5-ranked lightweight. Green is not ranked but is coming off an impressive win against Nasrat Haqparast two weeks ago and would make a huge jump in the division with a victory over Makhachev.
Does Green have what it takes to pull off the upset? Or will Makhachev handle the late opponent change and continue his rise to the top of the division? Veteran MMA coaches John Wood of Syndicate MMA, Sayif Saud of Fortis MMA and Eric Nicksick of Xtreme Couture MMA break down the matchup for Brett Okamoto and Marc Raimondi from an inside-the-cage perspective, while experts Ian Parker and Reed Kuhn analyze the card from a betting viewpoint.
160-pound catchweight bout: Makhachev vs. Green
John Wood, Syndicate MMA
How Makhachev wins: He's one of the better grapplers in the sport right now, at any weight. And he's filling that void that Khabib left behind when he retired. His level of competition so far is actually higher than what Khabib fought at the same point of his career. Islam has been thrown into the fire pretty early, and he's made it look easy. His grappling is incredibly high level, and as far as his striking, the thing is, when you have such good grappling it can open up opportunities for your striking.
Tale Of The Tape
| MAKHACHEV | GREEN | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 30 | 35 |
| Height | 5-foot-10 | 5-foot-10 |
| Reach | 70.5" | 71.0" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Last fight | 10/30/2021 | 02/12/2022 |
We might see more of that from Islam as he grows, but I don't think this is the fight in which we do, because Bobby Green is not the guy you want to experiment with on the feet. Islam is an elite grappler, elite wrestler. We haven't seen anybody stop that, so until we see it, I think that will be his strategy.
How Green wins: Bobby has underrated wrestling defense. His path to victory is defending the takedown and applying the pressure that he typically has as a striker. If you are coming to get him, he's going to be throwing punches to take your head off -- and he has some of the better boxing skills that you'll see in this division.
It hasn't gone well for anyone whom Islam has put on their back, so Green needs to stay off the ground. If he does that, he has a good chance of landing strikes and possibly getting a finish on the feet.
X factor: Green being able to show his toughness, stop some takedowns, find his groove where he's showboating, trash-talking. If Bobby can do that and shake Makhachev a little, get him off his game and stop some of those takedowns, the mental game Green is able to bring to the fight could be the X factor.
Prediction: I'm a huge Bobby Green fan. I love his fighting style, but until someone can stop that elite level of wrestling, it's hard to bet against Islam. Makhachev by submission.
Sayif Saud, Fortis MMA head coach
How Makhachev wins: Obviously, he has the wrestling advantage and the submission advantage, but he also has solid striking and a very balanced game. He's shown he'll pressure people similar to how Khabib Nurmagomedov would with basic striking. Bobby Green is hitting a nice flow; it looks like he's having fun. Guys like that are dangerous. Islam has gotten caught before -- at the beginning of his UFC run. He needs to control the range and where the fight takes place. If and when he wants to take the fight to the ground, he should be able to do that. He just needs to stay out of that A-zone where Green can catch him.How Green wins: He's gonna have to hit Islam and make Islam respect him. Make Islam make a mistake coming in and catch him. Islam has serviceable striking, so he has to find that space and not fall prey to Islam hitting him. Space might be hard to come by since this will be in the smaller cage at the UFC Apex. That's a huge factor.
X factor: The smaller cage. Islam can control that space. He doesn't have to be as creative with his techniques with such little real estate. Meanwhile, Bobby has to be even more creative and aware, because he doesn't have as much space to navigate as far as staying away from Islam's wrestling. The small cage is definitely an advantage for Islam.
Prediction: Islam takes him down and controls the fight. Bobby has more decisions on his record than many other 155-pounders. The guy has so many decisions and so many against tough opponents. Bobby is so resilient; he's a hard guy to put away. If Islam does get him out of there, it'll be in the later rounds. If Islam can navigate that space and start wearing Bobby down, the finish might present itself.
Eric Nicksick, Xtreme Couture MMA coach
How Makhachev wins: However he wants. The path for Islam is obviously going to be the grappling. For Islam, it's going to be getting through the volume of striking and understanding how Bobby is not really a stance fighter -- he can go from both stances. Islam needs to get through the volume to Bobby's chest. That's where he should really attack with the Greco-Roman wrestling. He can take him down however he wants, but the clearest path is to get in on the chest and go for the trip. The route for Khabib and his guys is usually the same formula: takedown, get heavy, anchor a leg or wrist and then the ground-and-pound. Then what usually happens after that is the submission presents itself. It's very methodical and very effective.How Green wins: I think he has to mind his geography. I think he has to be mindful of where he's at in the cage. Because he's able to hit from both stances, he can go for juke steps. Islam is a southpaw. Bobby can start him off on the rear side, take two steps to the rear side, then juke-step left and land one of those crosses. He has to try and get Islam coming in on something. Bobby is not really a power puncher by any means. He did drop Al Iaquinta. But where he really gets going downhill is through his volume. He has to be mindful of the small cage at the UFC Apex. He needs to stay on his bike. He can really go with his cardio, too. The guy pushes a hell of a pace.
X factor: Prep time. Kudos to Bobby for taking this fight on short notice. Nobody wants this fight. This guy is a gamer among gamers. I've been following his career since Strikeforce and he never backs down from a challenge. But coming in on less than two weeks' notice, how does the weight cut work for him? On the other hand, this is a no-lose situation for Bobby. He can shock the world by knocking out Islam and it could catapult him into stardom.
Prediction: Islam by submission -- I'll say in Round 2. As much as I'd like to say it'll go a little deeper, I think once Islam scores one of those takedowns -- maybe one at the end of Round 1 -- he'll continue investing in that and his grappling. It could be a tough night for Bobby.
Betting analysis
| STAND-UP STRIKING OFFENSE | MAKHACHEV | GREEN |
|---|---|---|
| Total knockdown ratio | 2:1 | 4:3 |
| Distance knockdown rate | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| Head power accuracy | 41% | 40% |
| Total standup strike ratio | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Wrestling and grappling | ||
| TD Attempts per Min Standing/Clinch | 0.69 | 0.27 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 67% | 39% |
| Advances per takedown/top control | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Opponent takedown attempts | 17 | 68 |
| Takedown defense | 88% | 72% |
| Share of total ground time in control | 91% | 64% |
| Submission Attempts per Trip to Ground | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| Table compiled by Reed Kuhn |
Kuhn: Makhachev, as part of parlays. The buzz will be all about Green stepping up for his first main event on two weeks' notice. It makes for a great story, but it doesn't change the fact that it's a steep uphill battle for Green against Makhachev, regardless of preparation time.
This looks like Makhachev's fight to lose. He has an accurate left hand and is much better at avoiding strikes than Green. So even if this fight stays standing, Green's going to take some shots. More importantly, we should expect Makhachev to change levels, and that's where the fight is more of a mismatch.
Makhachev has above-average takedown attempt pace and success rates, and once he gets a fight to the ground, he's dominant with his control. He spends nearly half of all his Octagon time in control on the ground, a position in which his opponents can't do much but try to survive to the end of the round. There's certainly potential for submissions from Makhachev, and he'll also be winning rounds thanks to his wrestling. Unfortunately, the market says there's very little betting value in this fight on its own.
Best bets for the rest of the card
Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Rong Zhu
Parker: Bahamondes to win (-230); by decision (+150). After delivering one of the best knockouts of 2021, Bahamondes will look to start a winning streak. Rong is a striker in his own right and tends to start slowly. He doesn't produce a ton of volume, but when he hits, he makes it count. However, I believe the output and precision of Bahamondes' striking is what gets it done here. Look for Bahamondes to avoid the power of Rong and use his combinations to outpoint him en route to victory.Arman Tsarukyan vs. Joel Alvarez
Kuhn: Tsarukyan to win (-220); by decision (+210). In a true lightweight bout, we'll see arguably the second-best wrestler on the card. Tsarukyan's only UFC loss was a decision to Makhachev, the headliner. Since that defeat, Tsarukyan has looked similar to Makhachev on paper, with aggressive takedown attempts, dominant mat control and the ability to stay out of danger on the feet.Alvarez has made a career of submission victories, despite lacking a lot of offensive wrestling. He works almost entirely from his back, ignoring takedown defense altogether, scoring two submission victories in the UFC without a single successful takedown of his own. That means we're likely to see a lot of mat work, probably with Tsarukyan in top control.
Assuming Tsarukyan's submission defense holds, we should see him simply wrestle his way to victory. It definitely won't be the Fight of the Night, but the price for the strong wrestler here is good.
Fares Ziam vs. Terrance McKinney
Parker: McKinney to win (+110). Both Ziam and McKinney will look to keep a two-fight winning streak alive in a battle of prospects. Ziam has displayed a very well-rounded skill set in his past two fights. Look for Ziam to try to take away the power of McKinney by putting him on his back and controlling him for all three rounds. However, I think people are underestimating McKinney's wrestling. McKinney's takedown defense will be able to keep the fight standing, where he will have the edge.
Jonathan Martinez vs. Alejandro Perez
Parker: Martinez to win (-230). Coming off of his best performance to date, Martinez will look to continue his winning ways against Perez. Martinez is the better striker, and he can rely on his wrestling if he finds himself in trouble on the feet. As long as he doesn't brawl and stays away from the power shots of Perez, this is Martinez's fight to lose.Kuhn: Martinez to win (-230). In a fight that should spend a lot of time on the feet, we have two bantamweights who like to stand and bang. What is notable here is that one of these men has put up much stronger numbers on the feet, both offensively and defensively; Martinez scores advantages in power, accuracy and defense over Perez. If this fight does go long stretches on the feet, Martinez should get the better of the exchanges because of his effectiveness at long range and a better chin.
