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UFC 292 and PFL playoffs expert picks and best bets: Can O'Malley end Sterling's title run?
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALUFC men's bantamweight champion, Aljamain Sterling will go for a record-setting fourth 135-pound title defense when he takes on Sean O'Malley in the main event at UFC 292 in Boston on Saturday night (10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV).
Sterling, ESPN's No. 7 ranked pound-for-pound fighter, is riding a nine-fight win streak. Most recently he beat former division champ, Henry Cejudo by split decision at UFC 288 in May. O'Malley, ranked No. 4 in ESPN's divisional rankings, has won four of his last five bouts. He also won his last fight by split decision, beating Petr Yan at UFC 280 last October.
In the co-main event, women's strawweight champion Zhang Weili will fight Amanda Lemos. Zhang, sits atop ESPN's women's pound-for-pound rankings, she beat Cara Esparza to reclaim the title at UFC 281 in November 2022. Lemos, ranked No. 3 in ESPN's divisional rankings, has won back-to-back fights via stoppage.
Former UFC women's featherweight and current ESPN MMA analyst Megan Anderson gives her perspective on the main event. ESPN's betting experts Reed Kuhn and Ian Parker add their insights and analysis on the main event and other intriguing bets they like on the card.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Bantamweight title fight: Aljamain Sterling vs. Sean O'Malley
Megan Anderson, Former UFC women's featherweight and current ESPN MMA analyst
Tale Of The Tape
| STERLING | O'MALLEY | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 34.1 | 28.8 |
| Height | 67.0 | 71.0 |
| Reach | 71.0 | 72.0 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Last Fight | May 6, 2023 | Oct. 22, 2022 |
The way he uses his wrestling to create scrambles, and then get the takedown to get the opponent's back is so impressive. We saw him do it against top-level guys like Cejudo, Yan and Cory Sandhagen. None of them had an answer for it. Sometimes Sterling is able to get the submission from that position and other times he's just able to control from there. Although the success rate of landing those submissions has decreased as he moved up in competition, but even when he doesn't get them he uses the threat of submissions to dominate rounds. Sterling is going to have to use that ability against O'Malley. He can't allow O'Malley to find his range. Even though both fighters have a similar reach, O'Malley has so many more ways to put Sterling away on the feet.
How O'Malley wins: He's going to have to keep this fight on the feet. O'Malley's ability to find his opponent's chin is outstanding. He is a master of movement and range and with his head movement and the diversity in his strikes, it makes him a very tough matchup.
O'Malley stance switches a lot, which helps him maintain lateral movement. Plus, he is dangerous from both stances. His jabs and straight punches are fast and clean. When you get a guy like Sterling, who has okay striking -- but not at the level of O'Malley -- and has a tendency to keep his hands low, that's a recipe for trouble against O'Malley who is a sniper. At some point in the fight, O'Malley is going to find his opponent's chin.
As we saw in his fight against Yan, O'Malley was able to use his knees to disrupt Yan's wrestling and even cut him open. Those strikes slowed down the pressure of Yan. I could see him using a similar game plan against the heavy wrestling approach of Sterling.
X-factor: What does O'Malley look like in the championship rounds? We've seen him go the distance in a hard-fought split decision over Yan in his last fight, but that was a three-round fight. We've never seen O'Malley in a five-round fight. However, we know Sterling can go for 25 minutes. How is O'Malley's cardio? What does his strike output look like in the later rounds?
Prediction: If I have to pick, it's probably Sterling by decision.
Betting analysis
UFC 292: Sterling Vs. O'Malley
| Stand-up striking offense | Sterling | O'Malley |
| Total knockdown ratio (Knockdowns/times knocked down) | 0:4 | 5:0 |
| Distance knockdown rate | 0.0% | 1.8% |
| Head jab accuracy | 34% | 49% |
| Head power accuracy | 33% | 58% |
| Standup strike ratio (Attempted vs. opp. attempted) | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Wrestling and grappling | ||
| TD Attempts per Min Standing/Clinch | 0.80 | 0.08 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 25% | 43% |
| Advances per takedown/top control | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| Opponent takedown attempts | 42 | 26 |
| Takedown defense | 45% | 58% |
| Share of fight time in ground control | 65% | 12% |
| Submission Attempts per Trip to Ground | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| Table compiled by Reed Kuhn |
While O'Malley's striking statistics are among the best in the UFC, Sterling will offer five high-pressure rounds, with tricky long-range striking of his own to give O'Malley his toughest test yet. Add in Sterling's elite grappling, and this feels like a tall ask for O'Malley.
Women's strawweight title fight: Zhang Weili vs. Amanda Lemos
Tale Of The Tape
| ZHANG | LEMOS | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 34.0 | 36.2 |
| Height | 64.0 | 64.0 |
| Reach | 63.0 | 65.0 |
| Stance | Switch | Southpaw |
| Last Fight | Nov. 12, 2022 | Nov. 5, 2022 |
To be able to use those skills against Lemos, Zhang needs to be first. Set the pace, don't let Lemos build any momentum. Lemos may have a power advantage, but Zhang will be the quicker fighter with the faster hands. She needs to resist being a stationary target, be in and out with her movement to avoid Lemos' power.
How Lemos wins: Grab a hold of Zhang and bully her. Use her size and power to dictate the fight. She throws with power in each of her strikes, but she needs to manage her energy output. In previous fights, Lemos has shown that she starts to fade as fights go on. She'll need to try to end this fight early.
Lemos is used to being the hammer, dictating the action and pressing forward against opponents, but when she's the nail she tends to struggle. To give herself a chance later in the fight, Lemos news to use her powerful leg kicks. When you want to shut down an opponent's movement, you have to take their legs away from them. If Lemos can attack Zhang's legs early, it could pay off down the line.
X-factor: Cardio. As I mentioned above, Lemos slows as fights go on. When you look at her fights many of her wins tend to be quick finishes. Rarely do they go into the second or third round. In her longer fights, Lemos has shown she can use her size wear on opponents, but that's in a 15-minute fight. 25 minutes is a different beast.
Prediction: I have Zhang winning. I think if she gets a stoppage, likely be in the Round 4 or Round 5. I think she'll set a high pace early, stay clear of the power and wear Lemos down then put her away in the championship rounds.
Betting analysis
UFC 292: Zhang Vs. Lemos
| Stand-up striking offense | Zhang | Lemos |
| Total knockdown ratio (Knockdowns/times knocked down) | 2:1 | 5:0 |
| Distance knockdown rate | 1.3% | 4.8% |
| Head jab accuracy | 18% | 49% |
| Head power accuracy | 32% | 43% |
| Standup strike ratio (Attempted vs. opp. attempted) | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Wrestling and grappling | ||
| TD Attempts per Min Standing/Clinch | 0.50 | 0.17 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 34% | 56% |
| Advances per takedown/top control | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| Opponent takedown attempts | 9 | 11 |
| Takedown defense | 67% | 82% |
| Share of fight time in ground control | 59% | 76% |
| Submission Attempts per Trip to Ground | 0.19 | 0.43 |
| Table compiled by Reed Kuhn |
Or maybe Zhang will rely on her new and improved grappling. Her takedown success rate isn't great, but was more than effective when she submitted former champ Carla Esparza. However, with 82 percent takedown defense, Lemos has been hard to take down, and also to control on the mat. Overall, Lemos does have a path to victory via her striking, and the return is high enough to take a stab.
Parker: Zhang to win, inside the distance (-150). This fight has a similar vibe to when Zhang fought Jessica Andrade. Like Andrade, Lemos swings aggressively but also has a submission game if the opportunity presents itself. However, I think the difference here for Zhang will be her cardio and her wrestling. Look for Zhang to take Lemos down and tire her out with her top control and damage then eventually get a late finish.
Best bets on the rest of the card
Middleweight: Chris Weidman vs. Brad Tavares
Kuhn: Lean Weidman to win (+235). Here we have two veteran middleweights with nearly identical striking metrics. However, while Weidman is older, he's bigger and arguably less damaged. That is, except for his leg. He's making his return to the Octagon 847 days after a brutal leg injury.The matchup on the feet is somewhat of a wash. But if Weideman takes the fight to the ground -- as he has historically tried to do so early and often -- he will have a significant advantage with submissions and control. With such a juicy price, backing a former champion as an underdog with a clear path to victory seems to be the better value play.
Middleweight: Gregory Rodrigues vs. Denis Tiuliulin
Parker: Rodrigues to win, inside the distance. Prior to his loss to Bruno Ferreira, Rodrigues had won back-to-back fights by knockout. He is a well-rounded fighter and has a strong ground game, if the striking game isn't going his way. Tiuliulin is the perfect matchup stylistically for Rodrigues to get another finish and get back in the win column.Women's flyweight: Andrea Lee vs. Natalia Silva
Kuhn: Silva to win (-360). Lee certainly has the edge in credentials as a decorated striker, but, statistically, Silva shows up better in nearly every striking category. Though Silva will be at a slight range disadvantage, the southpaw will be more aggressive, more accurate and has been hitting harder than her opponent. Silva also has the added benefit of a significant youth advantage.The ground game may not come into play, but even there Silva has shown better position control. She's only been taken down once, while Lee has much worse takedown defense. Silva has a history of submissions, and though we haven't seen it yet in her young UFC career, it's safe to say she's comfortable on the ground.
Best bets for 2023 PFL playoffs: Heavyweights and Women's Featherweights
Heavyweight: Renan Ferreira vs. Maurice Greene
Parker: Ferreira to win by KO/TKO. After earning a playoff spot, due to a Marcos Nunes injury, Greene looks to make the most of this opportunity. But, unless Greene can take down Ferreira early and keep him there, he might be seeing an early exit. Ferreira is coming off a knockout win and will likely try to keep the fight standing. We have seen in the past that once the fight hits the floor and Ferreira gets put on his back, he tends to struggle and lose the fight. However, I believe he will be able to keep it standing and get an early knockout win over Greene.
Women's featherweight: Larissa Pacheco vs. Olena Kolesnyk
Parker: Pacheco to win by KO/TKO in Round 1. Pacheco enters the playoffs hoping to become the PFL's first-ever women's two-division champ. This will be the third time Pacheco and Kolesnyk will square off, and unfortunately for Kolesnyk, I don't see a different outcome taking place. Pacheco already has two knockout wins over Kolesynk, and though Kolesynk has looked better this season with her defense, Pacheco is one of the best in the world regardless of promotion. I expect a first-round finish from Pacheco.Heavyweight: Denis Goltsov vs. Jordan Heiderman
Parker: Goltsov to win, inside the distance. Since his loss to in 2021, Goltsov has gone on a four-fight win streak and looked flawless doing so. Meanwhile, his opponent Heiderman was a late notice fill-in for the PFL season. I believe Heiderman's undefeated streak will come to an end here, as Goltsov is the favorite to win the season and will have the advantage anywhere the fight goes. Unless Heidmeran gets a flash knockout, look for Goltsov to establish the jab and eventually take the fight to the floor where he will get the finish.
