UFC 275: Best Bets For Teixeira-Prochazka, Shevchenko-Santos & Weili-Jedrzejczyk 2 👊

[Wagerallsports]

UFC 275: Expert picks and best bets for Teixeira-Prochazka, Shevchenko-Santos and Weili-Jedrzejczyk 2​

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Two championship belts will be on the line during Saturday's UFC 275 (10 p.m. ET, ESPN+ PPV) at Singapore Indoor Stadium in Kallang, Singapore, in one of the most action-packed PPV cards of the year.

The main event features Glover Teixeira facing Jiri Prochazka for the Teixeira's UFC light heavyweight title. Teixeira enters Saturday night's bout on a six-fight winning streak and making his first title defense since defeating Jan Blachowicz at UFC 267. Prochazka, the former Rizin light heavyweight champion, carries an 11-fight winning streak and a 2-0 record thus far in the UFC.

The co-main event pits defending UFC flyweight Valentina Shevchenko against Taila Santos. Shevchenko hasn't lost a fight in over four years and will defend the 125-pound title against Santos, who is riding a four-fight winning streak. In Santos' last match, she won 'Performance of the Night' for her first-round submission victory over Joanne Wood.

The third fight is a rematch of arguably the greatest fight in MMA women's history between Zhang Weili and Joanna Jedrzejczyk. Jędrzejczyk hasn't fought since their faceoff in 2020, while Weili is 0-2 with consecutive losses to Rose Namajunas since their fight at UFC 248.

Where is the betting value? Will the favorites prevail? Veteran MMA coach Sayif Saud of Fortis MMA breaks down the two title fights for Brett Okamoto from an inside-the-Octagon perspective, while experts Ian Parker and Reed Kuhn analyze the card from a betting viewpoint.

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UFC light heavyweight championship: Glover Teixeira vs. Jiri Prochazka​

Sayif Saud, Fortis MMA​

Tale Of The Tape: Teixeira Vs. Prochazka​

	TEIXEIRA	PROCHAZKA
Age	42.6	29.7
Height	6-2	6-3
Reach	76.0	80.0
Stance	Orthodox	Orthodox
Last fight	Oct. 30, 2021	May 1, 2021

How Teixeira wins: Distance is the enemy here for Teixeira. There's room for Jiri to create that variability in his strikes when there is distance. Glover has a good boxing game, and we've seen him land good strikes his entire career. When he was younger, he had a run where his hands were very sharp. You can't count out his ability to hurt Jiri on the feet, but he has to be in close range with the hands. Then he can grab him, clinch, get wrist control -- he doesn't even need to take him down, just use his strength to chip away slowly. Glover is a proven product later in fights, and he knows how to break guys down.

How Prochazka wins: Can Jiri catch him in the early rounds? That's the question for me. The longer it goes, the more it favors Glover. We haven't seen Jiri handle physical, grappling exchanges yet. He doesn't have a lot of fights in the UFC, but we know that he throws from every angle on his feet. He's so long. He throws elbows, a lot of jump knees and spinning elbows. He switches stances. He'll box low and high. He comes from everywhere. He's the kind of guy, I don't even think he knows what he's going to do every time. And those are the hardest guys to prepare for, man. Coaches are looking to identify patterns and exploit them. Jiri doesn't engage in patterns. He's downloading and reacting. If he can put together a combination and stun him early, that's how he gets him.

Potential X-Factor: The physical strength of Prochazka. If a grappler gets a hold of you and realizes he's stronger, you're in for a long night. You can prepare for many things, but if a guy gets a hold of you and can't get away, that's an X-factor. Jiri is tall and wiry, but sometimes those guys aren't super strong. He looks strong. But physical strength could mean a lot.

Prediction: I'm going with Teixeira. He's a proven product. Glover gets it done somehow, and then I know many of us hope he rides off into the sunset.

Betting analysis​

UFC Fight Night: Teixeira Vs. Prochazka​

Stand-up striking offense	Teixeira	Prochazka
Total knockdown ratio (Knockdowns/times knocked down)	5:5	2:0
Distance knockdown rate	2.4%	2.9%
Head jab accuracy	41%	38%
Head power accuracy	32%	52%
Standup strike ratio (Attempted vs. opp. attempted)	0.7	1.0
Wrestling and grappling
TD Attempts per Min Standing/Clinch	0.5	0.1
Takedown Accuracy	40%	100%
Advances per takedown/top control	2.0	1.0
Opponent takedown attempts	68	2
Takedown defense	60%	50%
Share of fight time in ground control	28%	11%
Submission Attempts per Trip to Ground	0.3	0.0
Table compiled by Reed Kuhn

Kuhn: Under 3.5 rounds (-275). Prochazka has just 15 minutes of Octagon time entering this title shot, thus preventing quantitative predictions. But the limited data we have confirmed that he is a big threat as long as this fight is standing. Champion Glover Teixeira is generally vulnerable to quick strikers, even more so now at 42. But he's rallied from dangerous spots before, relying on his grappling to save him in fights where he's been hurt.

The question surrounding Teixeira's ability to get the fight to the ground makes it hard to back either side. However, Teixeira's submission game combined with Prochazka's striking ability on the feet provides a high chance of finishing potential -- regardless of the winner.

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UFC women's flyweight championship: Valentina Shevchenko vs. Taila Santos​

Sayif Saud, Fortis MMA​

Tale Of The Tape: Shevchenko Vs. Santos​

	SHEVCHENKO	SANTOS
Age	34.3	29.0
Height	5-5	5-6
Reach	66.5	68.0
Stance	Southpaw	Orthodox
Last fight	Sep. 25, 2021	Nov. 20, 2021

How Shevchenko wins: Valentina controls pace so well. Changes tempo. She'll take people down, and you'll go, 'Wow, I wasn't expecting that. She was winning the standup.' And then she'll control the tempo for the entire round on the ground. I think she's the best in the UFC at tempo changes right now, and that comes from mixing and matching better than anyone in the world. She is so efficient with her grappling. Have you seen her side control? The way she sits down and settles into positions. She just systematically breaks people down. Ground pressure, timing on her takedowns, variety of attacks on the feet. She is the complete package, and she can do all of this for 25 minutes and still dance for 10 minutes after she wins.

How Santos wins: She's tough and unheralded, but nobody is looking at the runner-up when you have a dominant champion like Shevchenko. There is a feeling that no one in this division can beat her. But Santos is very tough, and I think she's tougher than some of Valentina's other challenges. The only way I believe Santos can win this fight is if she can bring a pace to Valentina. Hurt her on the feet, grapple, scramble. Create situations where she can steal rounds.

X-Factor: Santos's cardio. Can she set a high pace, mix and match for 25 minutes? If you can make the fight chaotic, then anything can happen. Does she have the gas tank to do that for five rounds?

Prediction: Valentina by decision. Maybe late finish. I don't think Valentina will destroy her, and she'll have to work if she wants a finish. Santos belongs in this spot.

Betting analysis​

UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko Vs. Santos​

Stand-up striking offense	Shevchenko	Santos
Total knockdown ratio (Knockdowns/times knocked down)	1:0	3:0
Distance knockdown rate	0.6%	6.7%
Head jab accuracy	25%	32%
Head power accuracy	35%	29%
Standup strike ratio (Attempted vs. opp. attempted)	1.0	1.0
Wrestling and grappling
TD Attempts per Min Standing/Clinch	0.4	0.4
Takedown Accuracy	64%	86%
Advances per takedown/top control	0.8	1.3
Opponent takedown attempts	31	15
Takedown defense	77%	87%
Share of fight time in ground control	25%	43%
Submission Attempts per Trip to Ground	0.11	0.43
Table compiled by Reed Kuhn

Parker: Shevchenko to win, put her in your parlay. After securing her first finish in the UFC, Santos will now attempt to match Amanda Nunes as the only fighter to get a victory over Shevchenko. Santos possesses good striking and a solid ground game, but is it enough?

My answer is no. Shevchenko continues to get better and evolve. Unless Santos catches the champion with a big shot, Shevchenko will control this fight and allow it where she wants it to go. I expect another dominant performance from Bullet.

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Best bets on the rest of the card​

Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs. Zhang Weili​

Parker: Weili to win. After a two-year hiatus, Jedrzejczyk returns for a rematch with fellow former champion Weili. For this fight, I am leaning toward Weili. She has been the more active fighter and lost by split decision in her last outing against Rose Namajunas. In the fight against Namajunas, she did a great job mixing up her striking with her wrestling, which I expect her to do against Jedrzejczyk. I expect this fight to go the distance again, but Weili's wrestling gets it done in the rematch.

Kuhn: Fight goes the distance, small lean on Jedrzejczyk to win. The same ingredients are in play between Zhang Weili vs. Joanna Jedrzejczyk 2. It should be a striker's duel, with both fighters using a blistering pace of output. Their first fight was all over the place on scorecards, but Jedrzejczyk was ahead on two judge's cards heading into the championship rounds. This fight will be only three rounds, and her aggressive pace early will be critical if she's going to outpoint Zhang. Yes, the fighters will exchange damaging strikes, but the knockout risk is low. While Zhang occasionally attempts takedowns, Jedrzejczyk has a stout takedown defense. Expect this to go the distance in a close decision.

Steve Garcia vs. Maheshate Maheshate​

Parker: Garcia to win. Coming off a TKO win against Charlie Ontiveros, Garcia will look to keep that momentum against Contender Series alumn Maheshate. I am quite surprised we are getting such a good number on Garcia, considering he has fought better competition, has more experience and is the better overall fighter. As long as Garcia doesn't get reckless and allow himself to brawl, he should be able to control the fight and get another victory.

Kyung Ho Kang vs. Batgerel Danaa​

Kuhn: Kang (+130), small play on fight not going the distance. For an upset, consider seasoned grappler Kyung Ho Kang. He has a long career of submissions but can also use ground control to stifle Batgerel, who prefers to stay on his feet. Unfortunately for Batgerel, his takedown defense is just average and unlikely to stand up to a sustained attempt to drag the fight down. Strong grapplers can trump dangerous strikers, and this matchup appears favorable for an upset.

Between Kang's submissions and Batgerel's striking, we again have finishing potential on both sides.

 

[lemartinsports]

thanks for sharing!

 

[BobbyFK]

Thank you! Good luck if you bet anything Wager. What stands out to you?