'Sharp' Bets To Consider This Weekend

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Weekend best bets: Experts make college, NFL picks​

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Tua Tagovailoa replaced Jalen Hurts at halftime of the 2018 College Football Playoff title game and sparked Alabama to a 26-23 comeback win over Georgia in overtime.

Five years later, Eagles quarterback Hurts and Dolphins quarterback Tagovailoa are two of the top four favorites to win the NFL MVP award, and their teams are two of the top four favorites to win the Super Bowl.

The former Crimson Tide teammates will square off in this weekend’s marquee matchup on “Sunday Night Football.”

Injury-riddled Philadelphia is a consensus 2½-point favorite over Miami, and the total is the highest on the board at 51½.

Professional sports bettor Jeff Whitelaw and Westgate SuperBook oddsmaker Ed Salmons like the Eagles with the caveat that some of their starters dealing with injuries, including tackle Lane Johnson, will play.

“If Lane Johnson is playing, I’m on the Eagles,” Salmons said. “It figures to be a good spot for the Eagles off that ridiculous loss (at the Jets).”

Johnson and defensive tackle Jalen Carter were limited participants in Thursday’s practice, while cornerback Darius Slay was a full participant.

“There are so many guys on the Eagles that are injured,” Whitelaw said. “If they all play, I love the Eagles. If some of them play, I like the Eagles. If none of them play, I don’t like the Eagles, period.”

I asked pro bettors, oddsmakers and handicappers for their weekend best bets and sharp plays.

RAVENS (-3) over Lions

In another matchup of Super Bowl contenders, Whitelaw and Salmons like Baltimore to cover as a small home favorite over Detroit.

“Detroit’s good but they’re stepping up a little bit, and it’s their second consecutive road game,” Whitelaw said. “I believe Baltimore is the better team in this spot.”


Said Salmons: “That game feels so much like the Eagles-Dolphins game. Detroit’s way ahead of where they thought they’d be now. … Baltimore’s offense is much better than what we’ve seen so far.”

VIKINGS (+7) over 49ers

Pro handicapper Lou Finocchiaro, who is 18-11-1 ATS (62 percent) in the Review-Journal NFL Challenge, likes the Vikings to cover as 7-point home underdogs to the Niners on “Monday Night Football.”

San Francisco standouts Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams are each day to day with injuries.

“The Vikings need to find success running the ball against a Niners defense that was carved up on the ground by the Browns,” said Finocchiaro (@GambLou). “In their second road game in a row, the 49ers barely escape town with a victory. If at all.”

Sharp NFL sides

Salmons said there was sharp money on the Steelers +3½ and +3 at the Rams. Pittsburgh is coming off its bye week, and Los Angeles has had a rash of injuries at running back.

Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said he’s seen sharp play on the Patriots over the Bills, which has driven the number down from 9½ to as low as 8 at Circa Sports.

“That might be a product of how beat-up the Bills are on defense,” he said. “They may be without four starters this week.”

Sharp college sides

Salmons said the Westgate took sharp bets on several college games:

* Pittsburgh (+2) over Wake Forest (line now pick)

* Minnesota (+5) over Iowa (now 3½)

* Southern California (-6½) over Utah (now 7)

* Alabama-Tennessee Over 47½ (now 48½)

* Missouri (-6½) over South Carolina (now 7½)

Alabama (-8½) over Tennessee

Pro bettor Paul Stone believes Alabama will extract some measure of revenge against Tennessee after losing to the Vols 52-49 last season on a game-ending field goal.

“Tennessee is just not the same team offensively,” said Stone (@PaulStoneSports). “(Quarterback) Joe Milton is not Hendon Hooker, and the Volunteers’ vertical passing attack lacks playmakers like Jalin Hyatt.”

Tennessee is averaging more than 100 fewer passing yards per game this year compared to last, Stone added. The Volunteers are relying more heavily on the ground game, running the ball on 56 percent of their offensive plays.

“Alabama allows only 3 yards per carry and hasn’t allowed a running back to rush for 70 yards this season,” Stone said. “I made the number 10, and I look for Alabama to win by double digits.”

 

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Weekend best bets: Pro picks 9-2 last week, 29-13 on season​

10/27/23

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Love was in the air in Green Bay at the start of the season, as the Packers won two of their first three games while going 3-0 against the spread.

Quarterback Jordan Love threw for seven touchdowns and only one interception as the franchise made a seemingly smooth transition from the Aaron Rodgers era.

Love has regressed during a three-game losing streak (0-3 ATS) in which he’s thrown for only three TDs and six picks. But professional sports bettor Jeff Whitelaw and Westgate SuperBook oddsmaker Ed Salmons expect the Pack to bounce back Sunday at Lambeau Field against the Vikings, who are 1½-point favorites.

“It’s a classic scenario. The public’s going to bet on Minnesota because they just saw them beat the 49ers,” Whitelaw said. “I’m expecting them to have a little bit of a letdown off their big win, and that short week is important.

“These teams are familiar with one another. I think it’s a close game, and Green Bay comes home and they win this game.”

The Packers are 2-4, but three of their losses have been by one, two and four points. Whitelaw also noted that the line has shifted by four points. Green Bay was -2½ before Minnesota’s win and is now +1½.

“That game really seems like it sets up perfectly,” Salmons said. “Minnesota beating the Niners on ‘Monday Night Football’ and Green Bay losing (three) games in a row and now it’s a pick’em. I think you’ll get Green Bay’s best shot here.”

I asked pro bettors and handicappers for their weekend best bets and bookmakers for their sharp plays.

The picks in this column went 9-2 ATS last week and are 29-13 (69 percent) this season.

Sharp plays

The SuperBook and Caesars took sharp money on the Seahawks -3 over the Browns, who are without quarterback Deshaun Watson. The line is now -4.

Caesars and Station Casinos took sharp action on the Saints +1 (now pick) over the Colts and the Broncos +8½ (now 7) over the Chiefs.

Kansas City has defeated Denver 16 straight times, most recently 19-8 in Week 6. But the previous three meetings were decided by an average of 4.3 points.

“Getting more than a touchdown is something to look at,” Caesars assistant director of trading Adam Pullen said. “Laying big numbers on the road in the NFL, do so at your own peril.”

Caesars took a $100,000 sharp bet on the Panthers +3 (still 3) over the Texans.

The SuperBook and Stations took sharp bets on the Patriots +10 (now 9½) against the Dolphins.

New England, which upset Buffalo last week, lost 24-17 to Miami at home in Week 2.

“Miami is a little banged-up defensively,” Salmons said. “If the Patriots play the right way and don’t turn the ball over, it’s hard to win by a huge margin. (New England coach Bill) Belichick knows how to take away your best player and make them move the ball.”

Jaguars-STEELERS Under 41

Handicapper Lou Finocchiaro, tied for second in the Review-Journal NFL Challenge at 19-15-1 ATS, expects the Steelers and Jaguars to stay under the total, which has dipped to 41.

“Two stout defensive clubs compete in Pittsburgh, where there will be a 65 percent chance of rain coupled with winds up to 15 mph,” said Finocchiaro (@GambLou). “The Steelers’ defense has been standing up, while their 24th-ranked offense (by the DVOA metric) is struggling.

“The Jags come in with 10 days rest and more team balance and keep this game very close and low-scoring.”

UTAH (+6½) over Oregon

Utah is coming off an emotionally charged 34-32 victory at Southern California and now hosts eighth-ranked Oregon, with the victor remaining in the thick of the Pac-12 race.

With ESPN’s “College GameDay” on hand in Salt Lake City, Texas-based handicapper Paul Stone believes the Utes can keep it close against the high-flying Ducks, who are favored by 6½ points.

“Injuries have perhaps taken a heavier toll on Utah this season than any team in America,” said Stone (@PaulStoneSports). “But I’m not sure there’s a tougher and grittier team in college football than the Utes. (Utah coach) Kyle Whittingham and his staff have done a masterful job of mixing and matching personnel and keeping this team in the sport’s upper echelon.”

Since the start of the 2013 season, Utah is 19-11 ATS as an underdog.

 

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Weekend best bets: Pro picks 34-16 ATS this football season​

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For two decades, bettors padded their bankrolls by backing the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick Patriots to bounce back after a loss.

In recent years, the Patrick Mahomes-Andy Reid Chiefs have been money on the rebound. Since 2018, Kansas City leads the league with a 16-3 record after a loss. It’s 13-2 in that role since 2019 and 10-1 since 2020.

Professional sports bettor Jeff Whitelaw and Westgate SuperBook oddsmaker Ed Salmons like the Chiefs to extend that trend Sunday against the high-flying Dolphins in their 6:30 a.m. Pacific time showdown in Frankfurt, Germany.

Kansas City, coming off a stunning 24-9 defeat at Denver, is a consensus 2-point favorite.

“The Dolphins have played two good teams — the Eagles and the Bills — and they got blown out in both games,” Whitelaw said. “Kansas City is coming off a loss, and I just think Kansas City is better than the Dolphins.

“I’m throwing out last week because Mahomes had the flu and didn’t have a very good game.”

Said Salmons: “Miami is down three offensive linemen and Andy Reid’s record after they lose is really good, so I think Kansas City is going to find a way to win that game.”

I asked pro bettors and handicappers for their weekend best bets and bookmakers for their sharp plays.

The picks in this column went 5-3 ATS last week and are 34-16 (68 percent) this season.

Sharp plays

South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews took sharp plays on a plethora of NFL sides, including the Ravens -5½ (now -6), Packers -3 (still -3), Saints -7½ (now -8½), Panthers +3 (now +2½) and Bills +3 (now +2).

Whitelaw likes Green Bay to cover at home over the Rams after losing to the Vikings last week at Lambeau Field.

“I like playing a team off a loss at home,” he said. “I like some of these teams bouncing back and coming off a loss.”

He also took the Texans (-2½) to rebound from last week’s loss at Carolina against the Buccaneers, who have lost three straight.

“I don’t think Tampa’s that good,” he said. “I like the Texans laying less than a field goal at home.”

The SuperBook took college football bets from a sharp group on Temple +7 (still +7), Northwestern +6 (now +5), Illinois +3 (now +1½), Arizona +3 (now +2½), San Diego State +3 (now +2½) and Boise State +3½ (now +2½).

Salmons likes Arizona over UCLA. The Wildcats have won back-to-back games against Oregon State and Washington State and have covered four straight.

“Arizona’s kind of an under-the-radar team. They’ve dramatically improved,” he said. “And UCLA on the road against good teams has always been a little iffy.”

Salmons also bet on Georgia Tech (+2) over Virginia.

“There’s no way Virginia should be favored in that game,” he said.

Oklahoma State (+6)

After a shaky September, Oklahoma State won and covered all four of its games in October.

Texas-based handicapper Paul Stone likes the Cowboys to cover as 6-point home underdogs to Oklahoma in what figures to be the final edition of The Bedlam Series, at least for the foreseeable future.

“Boone Pickens Stadium is no picnic for any visitor, and I expect it will be even more raucous on Saturday considering the opponent and circumstances,” Stone said. “Love him or loathe him, (Oklahoma State coach) Mike Gundy gets the most out of his roster. The Cowboys seem to be gaining momentum and confidence each and every week.”

Oklahoma State is riding a 9-4 run against the spread as a home underdog.

Georgia Tech-Virginia Over 57

Pritchardspicks.com handicapper Scott Pritchard has two entries tied for seventh place (33-22-1 ATS) in the Golden Nugget’s Ultimate Football Challenge. He likes the Yellow Jackets and Cavaliers to fly over the total.

“Georgia Tech quarterback Haynes King is in a zone,” Pritchard said. “He accounted for four TDs and almost 400 yards passing and running in last week’s 46-42 win over North Carolina. Points will be cheap.”

Jets (+3½)

Two-time Westgate SuperContest winner Steve Fezzik is tied for fifth in a field of 5,273 in the Circa Sports Million contest with a 28-10-2 ATS record. He likes the Jets to cover as Monday night home underdogs to the Chargers.

“Who are the Chargers to be laying 3½ on the road traveling all the way across the country?” said Fezzik (@FezzikSports). “I only have the Chargers’ power-rated three points better. And so many Chargers games are very close games.”

 

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49ers and 15 other bets to make this weekend (44-23 for season)​

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The hottest team in the NFL isn’t the Bengals or Ravens, who have each won four straight.

It’s the Jaguars, who will try to extend their five-game winning streak Sunday at home against the 49ers in a matchup of top-10 Super Bowl favorites following their bye weeks.


San Francisco, which has lost and failed to cover three straight, is a 3-point favorite. Westgate SuperBook vice president Jay Kornegay, who is 8-2 against the spread the last two weeks and leads the Review-Journal NFL Challenge with a 28-15-2 record (65.1 percent), made the 49ers his best bet.

“The Niners are coming off a much-needed reset,” Kornegay said. “On the other side, the Jaguars own one of the worst pass-blocking lines in the league. With the addition of (Chase) Young, the 49ers just got stronger in that area. That is not a good matchup for the Jaguars.

“Despite the three losses, I still consider the Niners to be one of the top three or four teams in the league. I love their coaching staff. I think they’re going to make some adjustments.”

I asked pro bettors and handicappers for their football best bets and bookmakers for their sharp plays.

The picks in this column went 10-7 ATS last week and are 44-23 (65.7 percent) this season.

Sharp plays

South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews said he took sharp bets on the Ravens -6 (now -6½), Texans +7 (now +6½), Saints -2½ (now -3) and Lions -2½ (now -3).

SuperBook vice president of risk Ed Salmons said the Westgate also took sharp wagers on the Lions, as well as the Steelers -3 (still -3) and Cardinals +2½ (now +1½).

The SuperBook also took sharp college football bets on North Carolina -11 to -13½ (now -14½), Temple +7½ (now +7), Illinois -6 (now -6½) and Pittsburgh -2 (now -3).

NFL best bet


Pro handicapper Kelly Stewart is 14-5-1 ATS the last three weeks in the RJ NFL Challenge and tied for second at 25-19-1. Her best bet is the Broncos (+7½) over the Bills on “Monday Night Football.”

“This is a perfect game to try and middle on Monday night. Tie the Bills -1½ into teasers and come back with the Broncos getting over a touchdown,” said Stewart (@kellyinvegas). “Prior to their bye, the Broncos quietly upset the Chiefs and squeaked out a win over the Packers. Has this team turned a corner? Maybe. But this isn’t a bet on them. This is a bet against the broken and battered Bills.

“This team tends to win games after a loss. But by slim margins, and against teams like Denver and the Bucs and Giants. With Buffalo’s defense decimated, look for Russell Wilson to dink and dunk his way to an ATS victory.”

College best bets

Pro handicapper Dana Lane leads the RJ College Challenge with a 27-21-2 ATS mark. He likes Kentucky (+11) over Alabama.

“This number feels like a trap. I anticipated that Alabama would be in the two-touchdown range,” said Lane (@DanaLaneSports). “I think we’re going to see the Wildcats run the ball, which they do effectively even though they’re a little heavier with the pass. If (running back) Ray Davis is a factor, the Cats will cover this number.”

Texas-based pro bettor Paul Stone likes Colorado to cover against Arizona as a 10½-point home underdog.

Arizona, led by redshirt freshman quarterback Noah Fifita, has won three consecutive games as the betting underdog — all over ranked opponents.

The Wildcats now travel to Boulder as double-digit road favorites to face coach Deion Sanders and the reeling Buffaloes, who have lost five of six.

“Arizona is red hot, but now changes roles and bears the burden of being a double-digit favorite on the road,” said Stone (@PaulStoneSports). “Colorado has certainly cooled, but it’s gotten backdoor covers with late touchdowns in its last two games. This game would have been around pick just three weeks ago, so the points are simply too attractive in my opinion.”

Salmons bet on Appalachian State +3 (now +2) over Georgia State.

“Appalachian State is a team I liked to start the year, but they just seemed to underachieve,” he said. “They finally put together a good game last week. Georgia State seems like its going in the opposite direction. It’s a series App State has been favored in every time in forever. Getting points, I thought that was a decent bet.”

Salmons also played Navy +4 (now +2½) over Alabama-Birmingham.

“If you lined this game two weeks ago, it probably would’ve been Navy -1 or -2,” he said. “UAB never played Navy before. All the other teams in the conference are used to Navy.”

 

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Weekend best bets: Experts bid for sixth straight winning week​

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Washington, fifth in the College Football Playoff rankings, is only three wins away from a 13-0 record and probable invitation to the sport’s version of the Final Four.

But Texas-based handicapper Paul Stone believes Oregon State is primed to deliver the Huskies an unwelcome parting gift as the longtime Pac-12 rivals go their separate ways after this season.

Washington moves to the Big Ten, while the Beavers were left out of college football’s latest wave of realignment and will reportedly form an alliance with the Mountain West to help fill their schedule next season.

Oregon State, which will earn a berth in the Pac-12 championship game Dec. 1 at Allegiant Stadium with wins over Washington and Oregon the next two weeks, is Stone’s best bet this weekend as a 1-point home favorite.

The Westgate SuperBook also took sharp money on the Beavers at pick’em.

“Oregon State undoubtedly feels jilted, and I believe Washington is walking into a hornet’s nest Saturday night in Corvallis,” said Stone (@PaulStoneSports), who is 5-2 against the spread the last seven weeks in this column. “The Beavers are 17-1 at Reser Stadium since the start of the 2021 season, plus Damien Martinez is one of the best running backs in America.”

I asked pro bettors and handicappers for their football best bets and bookmakers for their sharp plays.

The picks in this column went 10-6 ATS last week and are 54-29 (65 percent) this season.

Sharp plays

The SuperBook took sharp money on the Packers +3½ (now +3) over the Chargers, and on the Broncos -1½ (now -2½) over the Vikings.

The Westgate also took sharp money on Kansas State -7 (now -9½) over Kansas, Southern California -5½ (now -6½) over UCLA, and on UNLV +4 and +3½ (now +3) over Air Force.

The Rebels have the best spread record in the country at 9-1 ATS.

Cardinals (+5) over Texans

SuperBook vice president Jay Kornegay went 5-0 ATS last week and is 13-2 the last three weeks in the Review-Journal NFL Challenge, which he leads with a 33-15-2 record (68.7 percent).

His best bet this week is the Cardinals (+5) over the Texans, who upset the Bengals last week.

“It’s more of a situation play because the Texans are coming off a huge win, and it’s a really difficult spot for a young team to play back-to-back great games,” Kornegay said. “If Kyler Murray and James Conner can run the ball consistently, the Cardinals should be able to keep that game close.

“A lot of people are praising the Texans, but it was only three weeks ago when they lost to the Panthers. I like the Cardinals now because they’re such a different team with Conner and Murray on the field. You just can’t look at the Cardinals’ record. This is a different team.”

Browns (-1) over Steelers

The Browns dropped from 4-point home favorites to -1 over the Steelers after quarterback Deshaun Watson was ruled out for the rest of the season after having shoulder surgery.

But professional sports bettor Cris Zeniuk still likes Cleveland to win and cover behind backup quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson, a Bishop Gorman product.

“This is a situation where we often times see a team rally behind the backup and play their best game,” said Zeniuk (@lasvegascris). “The Steelers have been winning via smoke and mirrors, along with the (coach Mike) Tomlin voodoo. Statistically, Pittsburgh is not good on either side of the ball, while the Browns have the No. 1 defense.The Browns’ defense is going to be smothering vs. the young Pittsburgh QB (Kenny Pickett), and I believe the Steelers will be unable to score much at all. Pittsburgh’s defense is not what it used to be, and I think the Browns will be able to get in the end zone a few times.”

Rams (+1) over Seahawks

Wagertalk.com handicapper Teddy Sevransky (@teddy_covers) likes the Rams to cover as 1-point home underdogs to the Seahawks.

“Matthew Stafford is healthy again, while Seattle continues to struggle to stop the run,” he said.

Tennessee (+10) over Georgia

VegasInsider.com handicapper Chip Chirimbes went 4-1 ATS last week in the RJ College Challenge and is in second place with a 30-24-1 record after taking second in last year’s contest with a 39-26 mark.

He likes Tennessee to cover as a 10-point home underdog to Georgia after they were whipped 36-7 last week at Missouri.

“The Vols got ambushed at Missouri as they were looking ahead to this matchup with No. 1 Georgia,” Chirimbes said. “The Bulldogs’ defense is not of the same caliber as their past championship teams.”

 

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Weekend best bets: Why are Eagles underdogs to 49ers this weekend?​

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The Eagles own the NFL’s best record at 10-1 and are 5-0 at home, where they whipped the 49ers 31-7 in last season’s NFC title game.

So why is Philadelphia a consensus 2½-point home underdog to the 49ers — who saw quarterback Brock Purdy get injured last meeting — in Sunday’s rematch?

Sharp bettors backed the 49ers at the Westgate SuperBook when the line opened at pick’em after the Eagles escaped with a 37-34 overtime win over the Bills on Sunday. Philadelphia trailed 17-7 at halftime for the second straight week.


“It’s more of a play against the Eagles,” SuperBook vice president of risk Ed Salmons said. “They keep winning when they get down 10 points every game. At some point, that will end.”

Philadelphia, +3 at Circa Sports, is in the fourth game of a brutal five-game stretch in which it held off the Cowboys 28-23 before rallying to beat the Chiefs 21-17 and the Bills. The Eagles will be at Dallas next week.

“The Eagles keep winning somehow. Despite their best record in the league, I can see why they’re underdogs to the 49ers,” SuperBook vice president Jay Kornegay said. “The power ranking for the Niners is through the roof. They’re the most complete team in the league.”

Kornegay said the SuperBook also took sharp money on the 49ers-Eagles over 46½ (now 47½), Jaguars-Bengals under 40½ (now 38), Falcons-Jets under 35 (now 33½) and the Patriots +6 (now +5½).

In college football, the SuperBook took sharp bets on UNLV +3 (now +2½) and Louisville +3 (now +2½).

The sharp plays and best bets in this column are 59-38-2 ATS this season (60.8 percent).

TEXANS (-3½) over Broncos

Kornegay leads the Review-Journal NFL Challenge with a 38-18-4 record (67.9 percent).

The Denver native’s best bet this week is the Texans -3½ over the Broncos.


“The Broncos are my team ,but they’ve had a lot of fortunate things happen to enjoy this five-game winning streak,” he said. “This is going to be a tough spot for them because the Texans are probably a little underrated.

“Everybody’s talking about (quarterback) C.J. Stroud, but the offensive line, receivers and (running back) Devin Singletary are a big part of their success.”

TEXANS-Broncos Over 47½

SixthSenseSports.com handicapper Scott Kellen is in second place in the RJ Challenge at 34-23-3.

His best bet is on the Texans-Broncos over 47½.

“I played this at 45 on Sunday. It has been bet up to 47½ but I still show some value to the over,” said Kellen (@SixthSenseNFL). “We have two bottom-10 pass defenses facing each other. Houston has the most explosive pass plays in the NFL this year.

“Both defenses rank in the bottom 10 in the league in sack percentage.”

STEELERS-Cardinals Under 41

GambLou.com handicapper Lou Finocchiaro is 4-1 ATS in his picks in this column. His best bet is on the Steelers-Cardinals under 41.

“It won’t be overly cold but there will be rain and some wind when the Cardinals travel east for an early kickoff,” said Finocchiaro (@GambLou). “The Steelers defense, ranked seventh in DVOA, may feast on (quarterback) Kyler Murray, who leads an offense that is ranked 30th in DVOA and has had little time to jell.

“The Steelers will use their run game to control the clock in this one.”

Oregon (-9½) over Washington

Texas-based handicapper Paul Stone likes one-loss Oregon to cover as a 9½-point favorite over undefeated Washington in Friday’s Pac-12 title game at Allegiant Stadium.

The Huskies won the first meeting 36-33 in Seattle. The winner of the rematch likely earns a spot in college football’s four-team playoff.

“Since losing to Washington, Oregon has won its past six games by an average of 26 points and none have really been competitive,” said Stone (@PaulStoneSports). “Meanwhile, Washington has struggled for the most part and is not the same football team it was in September and the first part of October.”

Oklahoma State (+16) over Texas

PickDawgz.com handicapper Dana Lane won the RJ College Challenge with a 37-26-2 ATS mark. His best bet is Oklahoma State (+16) over Texas in the Big 12 title game.

“There was so much emotion last week when the Longhorns took down Texas Tech (57-7),” said Lane (@DanaLaneSports). “It’s going to be hard to duplicate that for a day game against the Cowboys, who looked like they were preparing for this game rather than focusing on BYU (in a 40-34 overtime win).”

Alabama (+5½) over Georgia

VegasInsider.com handicapper Chip Chirimbes took second in the RJ College Challenge for the second straight year, going a combined 73-56-1 ATS. He likes Alabama to cover against Georgia in the SEC championship.

“They’ve come a long way since losing to Texas,” he said. “Karma has them here.”

 

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Weekend best bets: SuperBook VP looks to extend 45-20-5 mark​

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The long-suffering Lions turned into a cash machine last season after burning bettors’ money for years.

Detroit won 15 of 19 games while going 16-3 against the spread during a sizzling stretch that started Week 9 last year. It continued through the Lions’ 41-38 road win against the Chargers in Week 10 this season.

That hot streak has suddenly turned cold. The Lions are 1-3 ATS the last four weeks. Westgate SuperBook vice president Jay Kornegay still expects Detroit to bounce back at home against Denver on Saturday.

Kornegay is on a phenomenal run in the Review-Journal NFL Challenge, going 45-20-5 ATS (69.2 percent). That record would be good for second place in the Westgate SuperContest and 12th in the Circa Sports Million.

“It’s the third straight road game for the Broncos. Historically, that’s a very tough spot for the visiting team,” said Kornegay, a Denver native and lifelong Broncos fan. “I remember when the schedule came out, I thought this game is going to be a good spot for the Lions.”

Detroit lost 28-13 at Chicago last week. The Lions remain in first place in the NFC North at 9-4.

“I would expect them to be very focused for this game after falling to the Bears, not to mention they’re back indoors,” Kornegay said.

The picks in this column are 65-44-3 ATS (59.6 percent) this season.

Sharp plays

Kornegay said the SuperBook took sharp action on three of the biggest NFL underdogs on the board in the Patriots +9½, +9 and +8½ (now +7½), Jets +9½ and +9 (now +8½) and Cardinals +13½ and +12½ (now +12½).

He also reported sharp interest in the Steelers +2½ and +1½ (now +1½).

Jacksonville State/Louisiana under 58½, New Orleans Bowl


With bowl season kicking off Saturday, we asked Review-Journal College Challenge champion Dana Lane (37-26-2 ATS) and others for their best bets.

“There may be some nerves for Jacksonville State, which is playing in its first FBS bowl game,” said Lane (@DanaLaneSports). “But more concerning is Louisiana being down to its third-string QB.

“I don’t think we’ll see consistent cohesion on offense from either team.”

Miami (Ohio)/Appalachian State over 42½, Cure Bowl

“We’re getting a good number after opening at 47½,” Lane said. “Both running games will make a big enough impact to push this game over.

“App State has shown that they may not need much from Miami to push this over.”

New Mexico State (-3½), New Mexico Bowl

Texas-based handicapper Paul Stone likes quarterback Diego Pavia to lead New Mexico State over Fresno State in Saturday’s game in Albuquerque, N.M.

“New Mexico State would appear to have the motivation advantage and is playing in its home state,” said Stone (@PaulStoneSports). “Diego Pavia is a gamer, and I look for him to come up big.”

Washington (+4), Sugar Bowl

Looking ahead to the College Football Playoff semifinals, Stone likes undefeated Washington to upset Texas on New Year’s Day.

“Texas doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses, but it’s somewhat vulnerable in the back of its defense,” Stone said. “That obviously plays to Washington’s primary strength, which is its passing game.”

Boise State (+4½), LA Bowl

Former RJ Bowl Challenge champ Doug Fitz likes Boise State to cover against UCLA in Saturday’s game at SoFi Stadium.

“Boise State is 13-7 straight up in bowl games since 1999. They just took the interim tag off of coach Spencer Danielson, which indicates the confidence they show in him,” said Fitz (Systemplays.com). “The players seemingly like their new coach, so they’ll play hard for him. UCLA has nothing to play for and I think they couldn’t care less about this minor bowl game.”


Northwestern (+6½), Las Vegas Bowl

Fitz also likes Northwestern to cover against Utah in their Dec. 23 game at Allegiant Stadium.

“Northwestern had an amazing turnaround from last season and I believe this game is much more meaningful for them than it is for Utah, which had much higher expectations,” he said.

Fitz noted Northwestern is 8-4 ATS and fits a system in which bowl-game underdogs that improved by six wins or more over the prior season are on a 17-7 ATS run.

Mississippi (+3½), Peach Bowl

Former RJ Bowl Challenge champ Frank Carulli’s best bet is Mississippi over Penn State in their Dec. 30 game in Atlanta.

“Ole Miss arrives with all hands on deck, trying to snap a two-game bowl losing streak, one of the few flaws during Lane Kiffin’s four years as coach,” said Carulli (Xpressbet.com). “Penn State arrives without defensive coordinator Manny Diaz (now Duke’s coach), defensive standout Chop Robinson and, possibly, two other key defectors. Grab the 3½ points now.”

 

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Fresno State destryoed NMSU