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UFC 299: Expert picks and best bets for O'Malley vs. Vera 2
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALUFC men's bantamweight champion Sean O'Malley looks to avenge his only professional loss and earn his first title defense when he takes on Marlon "Chito" Vera in the main event of UFC 299 on Saturday at the Kaseya Center in Miami (10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV, with prelims at 8 p.m. on ESPNews/ESPN+ and early prelims at 6 p.m. on ESPN+).
O'Malley (17-1, 1 NC) has bounced back well since losing to Vera in 2020. The champ has beaten all but two of his six opponents during that time by knockout, including a second-round TKO win over Aljamain Sterling in August to claim the title. O'Malley is No. 10 in ESPN's pound-for-pound rankings.
Vera (23-8-1) has won five of his past six bouts. His only loss during that stretch was a split decision to Cory Sandhagen in March 2023. Vera is ranked No. 8 in ESPN's bantamweight rankings.
In the co-main event, two-time lightweight title challenger Dustin Poirier takes on rising contender Benoit Saint Denis. Poirier, ranked No. 5 in ESPN's lightweight rankings, enters the fight following a second-round knockout loss to Justin Gaethje last July. Saint Denis, unranked by ESPN, has won his past five fights via finish (3 knockouts, 2 submissions).
Marc Raimondi spoke to Fight Ready MMA coach Santino DeFranco to get his perspective on the UFC main event. ESPN's betting experts Reed Kuhn and Ian Parker add their insights and analysis on the main event and other intriguing bets they like on the card.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
Men's bantamweight title fight: Sean O'Malley vs. Marlon Vera
Santino DeFranco, Fight Ready MMA coach
Tale Of The Tape
| O'MALLEY | VERA | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 29.4 | 31.3 |
| Height | 71.0 | 68.0 |
| Reach | 72.0 | 70.5 |
| Stance | Switch | Switch |
| Last Fight | Aug. 19, 2023 | Aug. 19, 2023 |
The thing with O'Malley is going to be, can he knock "Chito" out early because he is just so durable. That's the big question. If he cannot knock him out early, does he have the cardio to push in the later rounds and not get steamrolled as he gets tired?
How Vera wins: "Chito" has to withstand Round 1. He has to not get hurt in the first two rounds, but not just sit back and calculate where he gives up those rounds for nothing. If he's going to be there and not put the pace on, he's got to do enough to get O'Malley tired. Otherwise, O'Malley can win Rounds 1 and 2 before "Chito" gets going. And then O'Malley needs to win one more round out of the last three. And if he wins one more round out of the last three, it doesn't matter if he loses the last two rounds as long as he doesn't get finished.
Vera pushes the pace, but he doesn't really push the pace in terms of volume. He pushes the pace in terms of range. People want to fight at their range, where they're comfortable, and Vera is OK smothering that range a little bit, and he suffocates people. They're uncomfortable when people are in a more traditional boxing than a kickboxing range, and they punch when they don't want to. They shoot when they don't want to, forcing them to make bigger movements than they want, getting their heart rate up more and breathing heavier. It's that range. That's the real pressure of "Chito."
X factor: Does Vera's chin hold up longer than O'Malley's body and cardio? And we've seen O'Malley get pushed around, we've seen him get rocked. We've seen him get his ankle hurt. We've seen these middle kicks and body shots slow him down a bit, and then we've seen him tire. We've seen him throw so many punches at Kris Moutinho and not put him away that he was almost like in the Homer Simpson situation where he punched himself out, and Moutinho was still standing. So, the durability factor of both fighters and the cardio factor of both fighters is the key to this entire fight. Can O'Malley put "Chito" away? And if the answer is yes, then I think he wins. If he cannot put him away, I believe that Vera's pressure will break O'Malley, and I think Vera will walk away with the decision to win.
Prediction: I think O'Malley is the better fighter everywhere, and I could see a place where "Chito" is just durable and won't die, and nobody's giving him a chance to win, and he just somehow toughs it out and finds his way to a victory in the last rounds by just pushing out a little bit more volume and cardio. If it goes to a decision, it's Vera. If it's a finish, it's O'Malley in Rounds 1 or 2. I lean Vera 51% to 49% on the narrowest margins. I hate to flip-flop on it, but I can see O'Malley just starching him and looking amazing. But that pressure and cardio of Vera and his calmness and durability -- if the fight goes later -- makes me lean on that.
Betting analysis
UFC 299: O'Malley Vs. Vera 2
| Standup striking offense | O'Malley | Vera |
| Total knockdown ratio (knockdowns/times knocked down) | 6:0 | 12:0 |
| Distance knockdown rate | 2.1% | 3.4% |
| Head jab accuracy | 49% | 41% |
| Head power accuracy | 58% | 32% |
| Standup strike ratio (attempted vs. opp. attempted) | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| Wrestling and grappling | ||
| TD attempts per minutes standing/clinch | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| Takedown accuracy | 43% | 39% |
| Advances per takedown/top control | 0.3 | 1.7 |
| Opponent takedown attempts | 28 | 74 |
| Takedown defense | 61% | 70% |
| Share of fight time in ground control | 15% | 30% |
| Submission attempts per trip to ground | 0.21 | 0.55 |
| Table compiled by Reed Kuhn |
Vera is a rare high-level fighter whose opponents collectively have greater accuracy than he does. That loose defense could be costly given O'Malley's strengths. Meaning, O'Malley is more likely to win rounds -- unless Vera can land a big shot. But Vera certainly has a puncher's chance. With 12 knockdowns scored, his knockdown rate is much higher than O'Malley's, though the champ is hard to hit and has never been knocked down.
Vera's leg kicks, which set up his finish over O'Malley in the first fight, are a wild card here. If O'Malley gets too much hype as the betting favorite, there could be some value in Vera's violence as a prop. Otherwise, I agree with the market that O'Malley should fight smarter than he did last time, and use his range to force Vera to fight uphill.
Parker: Over 4.5 rounds. In their first meeting, Vera won by TKO after O'Malley suffered an injury from a leg kick early in the fight. Vera has the style to give O'Malley issues, and as the fight goes on, Vera gets better and stronger. People are writing Vera off after seeing what O'Malley did to former champ Aljamain Sterling, but I wouldn't be so quick to do that. Vera is extremely durable and won't need to speed up his offensive pressure, as O'Malley is a counter striker and isn't the fastest starter either. We will see an underwhelming five-round fight, so give me over 4.5 rounds and I'll pay a little extra to not wait the additional 2.5 minutes.
Best bets on the rest of the card
Lightweight: Dustin Poirier vs. Benoit Saint Denis
Parker: Poirier to win (+180); Over 1.5 rounds. In what promises to deliver, Poirier vs. BSD will be an action-packed fight. The question is, can Poirier withstand the early pressure and onslaught from BSD? My answer is yes. I find it rather bizarre that Poirier is the betting underdog here just because he got caught by Gaethje in what was possibly a No. 1 contender fight for the title shot. Until he got caught with the headkick, Poirier was looking great. The BSD hype can be real; however, he has lost before and hasn't fought anyone in the top 10 or been in a five-round fight in the UFC. I expect Poirier to strike from the outside and not brawl. If he can get this fight past the first round, he will tire out BSD and pull off the upset.Heavyweight: Curtis Blaydes vs. Jailton Almeida
Kuhn: Almeida to win (-110). This card is so loaded that it has two heavyweights who consistently hold main event status fighting on the prelims. It's also odd to have two heavyweights primarily known for their wrestling. Both Almeida and Blaydes have perfect ground control metrics. If not for Almeida, Blaydes would have the highest share of total fight time in ground control at 42%. But Almeida has spent 87% of his fight time in ground control, the highest I've seen by an established fighter.Who gets top control first? With the market torn, the numbers lean toward Almeida. He's quicker to attempt takedowns and holds the position for longer. And surprisingly, Blaydes has been taken down four times, even if briefly. With coin flip pricing, I'll side with Almeida, who should be less fazed by the risk of Blaydes' stand-up than against prior opponents.
Lightweight: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Rafael Dos Anjos
Parker: Gamrot to win by decision. Coming off a TKO win over Rafael Fiziev, Gamrot will be looking to add another top name in the division with a win over RDA. Gamrot is an above-average striker with exceptional cardio and chain wrestling, which we have seen is a path of least resistance when fighting Dos Anjos. Look for Gamrot to pressure early with his wrestling and take control for the majority of the fight. I expect this to look like RDA's last fight against Vicente Luque, which became a wrestling match that went the distance.Middleweight: Michel Pereira vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk
Parker: Pereira to win (-150). Oleksiejczuk relies on his durability as his defense and his power to get the KO/TKO finish. However, off his back, he offers no threat of submission, so there is a clear path to victory for Pereira if he chooses to take the fight there. If Pereira plans on keeping the fight standing, I still like his chances as I believe he is the faster and better striker. He will have no issue getting the win here as long as he doesn't get caught.
Men's bantamweight: Pedro Munhoz vs. Kyler Phillips
Kuhn: Phillips to win (-225). I have backed Munhoz during a great stretch, but lately, he has been unable to keep up with top talent. Phillips hasn't fully proven himself just yet, but taking on a 37-year-old ranked opponent is a great opportunity to leap into the rankings.In addition to being much younger, Phillips will be the larger fighter on Saturday night. Combine the physical advantages with his more efficient striking, and he should be scoring more often, and possibly doing more damage. As Munhoz approaches 40, his below-average head strike defense is an increasing liability.
