🎲Betting Public In Love With Washington In National Championship Game

[Wagerallsports]

Bettors ‘in love’ with Washington; books need Michigan ‘pretty big’​

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The betting public is all-in on Washington over Michigan in Monday’s College Football Playoff national championship game.

“They love Washington,” Westgate SuperBook vice president of risk Ed Salmons said. “The public, at certain times, falls in love with a team when it gets rewarded week after week. Washington is definitely their team now.”

The Wolverines are consensus 4½-point favorites over the Huskies, who have the nation’s longest winning streak at 21 games and are coming off back-to-back upsets of Texas in the College Football Playoff semifinals and Oregon in the Pac-12 title game.

“Washington is going to be a trendy ’dog in this game,” SuperBook director John Murray said. “Everybody bet Washington against Texas. We couldn’t write a bet on Texas. We’re going to need Michigan pretty big in this game.”

It’s the same situation at Station Casinos and BetMGM, where the ticket counts are in favor of Washington by a 2-1 margin. The Huskies are even more popular on the money line, where they pay +165 to win the game outright (Michigan is -185).

“Always in these big games, we root for the middle — for the favorite to win but not cover,” Caesars Sportsbook assistant director of trading Adam Pullen said. “Bettors will usually flock to the underdog in a big game and take that money line.”

Caesars took a $50,000 wager on Michigan -4, but more money has been bet on Washington.

The Wolverines covered their last three games against Alabama in the CFP semifinal, Iowa in the Big Ten championship game and Ohio State.

“We definitely had more Alabama money than Michigan money,” Salmons said. “The public doesn’t really think a lot about Michigan, for whatever reason.”

Sportsbooks also need Michigan to win to avoid a seven-figure loss in futures bets on Washington, which opened at 100-1 last year at the SuperBook to win it all.

The book is on the hook for six figures on the Huskies, Station also has some liability on them, and BetMGM has a high six-figure liability on Washington.

“With Washington coming in at a higher price at the beginning of the year, a lot of people jumped in early on them,” MGM Resorts director of trading Lamarr Mitchell said. “We definitely need Michigan to win this game.”

BetMGM also took a substantial five-figure bet on Washington +4½.

The SuperBook took some sharp money on Michigan when it intentionally opened the line on the lower side at 3½ to draw some Washington action. It climbed as high as 5½ before dropping to 4 and settling at 4½. The line was still at 4 at Circa Sports on Saturday afternoon.

The total is 56½.

Both teams went over in the CFP semifinals. Michigan is on an 8-2 over run despite leading the nation in scoring defense, allowing 10.2 points per game. Washington is on a 3-1 under run despite being ninth in the nation in scoring with 37.6 ppg.

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Texas-based handicapper Paul Stone likes Monday’s game to stay under the total.

“One would expect Michigan to churn clock with its running game to keep the ball away from (Washington QB Michael) Penix and the Huskies,” said Stone (@PaulStoneSports). “Plus the Wolverines’ defense will be the toughest faced by Washington all season.”

Michigan only allows an average of 5.8 yards per pass attempt to rank fifth nationally.

Stone also likes Washington tight end Jack Westover to go over 24½ receiving yards.

While the Huskies’ wide receiving trio of Rome Odunze, Ja’Lynn Polk and Jalen McMillan garners most of the attention, Stone believes Westover (six catches for 59 yards against Texas) will get some opportunities.

“I think Michigan is going to take away some of Washington’s downfield, vertical passing game,” Stone said, “and Westover will be the beneficiary on some of the underneath routes.”

Salmons likes Michigan.

“The line is definitely lighter than what the power ratings come to,” he said. “I’m looking to play Michigan at some point. I’m just waiting to see how low it goes.”

 

[BMR Genie]

Computer Picks say otherwise and are in line with the books.

 

[jjgold]

Michigan line keeps going up now -5

 

[JDS]

I can’t find one computer model to support Washington lol might be a good sign who knows. The simulations are so one sided.

 

[BMR Genie]

I can’t find one computer model to support Washington lol might be a good sign who knows. The simulations are so one sided.

Very interesting final game!

 

[carolinakid]

Time of Play	Game-time	#	Play on	vs	Line	Grade
01/08/24 09:28:54am	01/08/24 07:30pm	287	Washington	Michigan	+5