Today’s Best NBA Picks

Key Facts

• Aaron Gordon is a vital piece of the Denver Nuggets and the Nuggets will need him to play well in order to win.

• Gordon is averaging 2.5 assists per game this season this postseason.

• Gordon has gone Over this assist prop total in six of his last seven games.

Aaron Gordon is everything the Denver Nuggets need. He is a versatile, quick defender, yet he is awesome on offense with his ability to cut to the rim and receive the deft passes of Nikola Jokic. Gordon will once again display his skills during the NBA Finals.

Gordon Has Been Racking Up Assists Lately

Although Gordon only averages 2.5 assists per game this postseason, he was not getting very many assists in the series against Minnesota. In the final two games against the Suns and the series against the Lakers, he upped his assist output quite heavily. In his last six games, he’s averaged 4.5 assists per game.

Gordon Will Play a Lot of Minutes Tonight

Aaron Gordon has an opportunity to continue his effective play. With the Nuggets needing Gordon’s defensive versatility, Gordon will play as many minutes as possible. Gordon has been finding open teammates quite often. That trend will continue tonight in the NBA Finals. Aaron Gordon will go over his assist prop tomorrow night.

The Pick

Aaron Gordon Over 2½ Assists (-126) at BetOnline

Key Facts

• The Miami Heat and Denver Nuggets start the NBA Finals in Denver tonight.

• Caleb Martin saw a huge increase in minutes during the Boston Celtics series.

• Martin has soared Over this rebound prop total in his last two games.

Jimmy Butler continued to reaffirm his dominance during these playoffs, yet the emergence of Caleb Martin was an unexpected treasure for the Heat. Martin continued his ascension with a 26-point, 10-rebound performance in Game 7 against the Celtics. This came on the heels of a 15-rebound performance in Game 6.

Miami Needs Martin

Even if the Heat get good play from their two stars, Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, Caleb Martin will be key to the Miami Heat’s success. Martin’s emergence as a solid third offensive option while staying a great defender has been a difference-maker for the Heat this postseason. If the Heat are to get the win, Martin is going to have to continue his high level of play.

The Heat Know Rebounding Is a Team Effort

Bam Adebayo could be pulled out of the paint quite often with having to cover the range of Nikola Jokic. That means the Heat will be reliant on their forwards to grab rebounds. Martin will be up to the task and continue on the strong rebounding performances that he had in the final two games against Boston. Caleb Martin will go Over his rebounding prop tomorrow night.

The Pick

Caleb Martin Over 6½ Rebounds (-157) at BetOnline

Key Facts

• Miami’s backup centers, Zeller and Love, have defensive shortcomings.
• Nikola Jokic is averaging 29.9 points per game this postseason.
• Jokic has gone over this point prop total in seven of his last nine games.

The Denver Nuggets will face the underdog Miami Heat and the NBA Finals. Miami punched their ticket to the Finals with a huge win over the Boston Celtics on Monday night. However, the Denver Nuggets pose completely different challenges to the Heat than the Celtics did.

Miami Lacks Front Court Depth

Bam Adebayo is an All-Star level center and one of the best defensive players in the league. However, his backups, Cody Zeller and Kevin Love, both leave something to be desired on the defensive end.

The minutes in which Bam Adebayo is on the court are going to be tough for Miami due to the huge matchup advantage Jokic will have against either Zeller or Love.

Bam Adebayo Has Struggled Against Jokic

Over the last two years, in a four-game sample, Jokic is 68.4% from the field and 60% from 3-point range when defended by Bam Adebayo. Adebayo is the Heat’s best defender, yet he still will struggle against the two-time MVP.

This is the one matchup the Heat will need to solve if they are to have a chance against the Nuggets. Unfortunately for Miami, I don’t think a solution exists on this roster.

Jokic will put that on display when he goes over his point prop.

The Pick

Nikola Jokic Over 27½ Points -114 at BetOnline

Key Facts

• Including playoffs, Denver has gone Over 113.5 points in 59-of-97 games (60.8%) this season.
• In the playoffs, Denver has the highest Offensive Rating (119.7) of any team in the last two seasons.
• Miami lost 124-119 in its only trip to Denver this season back on December 30.

Locked and Loaded Nuggets

Denver may have the best player in the NBA right now in Nikola Jokic. After scoring 13 points in his first playoff game, he has gone Over 20 points in 14 straight games and already has 8 triple-doubles this postseason.

Jamal Murray just averaged 32.5 points per game against the Lakers, and the role players are excellent with Michael Porter Jr., Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Aaron Gordon able to go off on any given night.

With Jokic’s consistency, the Nuggets are a tougher challenge for the Heat than the Bucks, Knicks, and Celtics were.

Denver Excels at Home

Not only have the Nuggets gone Over 113.5 points in 60.8% of all games this year but they also do it more often at home (71.4% of the time). The last time the Heat traveled to Denver in December, the Nuggets rallied with 39 fourth-quarter points on the way to a 124-119 win. Jokic had 19 points, 12 rebounds, and 12 assists as the Nuggets had eight different players score in double digits.

The Pick

Nuggets Team Total Over 113½ (-112) at BetOnline

Key Facts

• The Denver Nuggets will have a home-court advantage in the NBA finals.

• The Nuggets have been an excellent team all year and did not just up raise their level of play for the playoffs.

• The Denver Nuggets will have the best player on the court in Nikola Jokic in a potential matchup with the Miami Heat.

The Denver Nuggets came into this postseason unheralded because of the hot play of the Los Angeles Lakers and the enticing potential of the Phoenix Suns. Even though they had the best record in the NBA, not many NBA observers picked the Nuggets to make the NBA Finals.

The Nuggets Are Juggernauts at Home

The Denver Nuggets have yet to lose a home game in this playoffs. The Nuggets also have the best home record in the NBA during the regular season. This makes home-court advantage crucial for the Nuggets.

The home court should be a bigger edge than usual because of Denver’s altitude and opposing teams’ problems making the acclimation to the conditions.

Miami Has Had a Much Easier Road to the Finals

Much has been made of the Miami Heat Cinderella run to the Finals yet the Heat have had plenty of breaks. In the first round, a back injury to Giannis Antetokounmpo limited his effectiveness and allowed the Heat to easily defeat the Milwaukee Bucks.

In the second round, they played a New York Knicks team with plenty of flaws. This current version of the Boston Celtics is not coached very well and did not play up to their potential.

So, while Heat fans should be excited that they have experienced success, it is nothing like the Nuggets defeating the Lakers and Suns, who feature all-time greats, LeBron James and Kevin Durant.

Even though the Nuggets are the favorites in this scenario, there is still value in Denver to win the NBA Finals.

The Pick

Denver Nuggets To Win NBA Title -200 at BetOnline

Key Facts

• The Heat will need Jimmy Butler’s size and tenacity to compete with the Nuggets.

• Butler is averaging 7 rebounds per game during this postseason.

• Butler has gone Over this rebounding prop total in five of his last eight games.

Much is made of Jimmy Butler’s dominance on the offensive end, but he has also been a solid rebounder for the team. Butler is averaging seven rebounds per game during the postseason but he has been rebounding at a higher rate than he did earlier in the postseason. Butler had an impressive 11 rebounds in Game 6 against Boston and the Heat will need him on the glass again tonight.

Rebounding Is Critical to the Heat’s Success

In the games in which Miami has not looked good, it’s because they failed to rebound. The Atlanta Hawks took advantage of this in the first Play-In game, but the Heat quickly recognized and made a greater effort on the glass, especially the defensive end. With Bam Adebayo being drawn out of the paint often to cover Nikola Jokic, Butler will have plenty of opportunities for rebounds.

Butler Will Play Plenty of Minutes

There is no reason to run a heavy rotation in the NBA Finals. Jimmy Butler played 47 minutes in Game 6 and followed that with 43 minutes in Game 7. In the NBA Finals, there are multiple days off between games, which will work in Butler’s favor. Jimmy Butler will rack up the minutes and rebounds to go Over his rebounding prop.

The Pick

Jimmy Butler Over 7½ Rebounds (+106) at BetOnline

Key Facts

• Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has NBA Finals experience against the Miami Heat from 2020.
• Caldwell-Pope is averaging 11.7 points per game this season this postseason.
• Caldwell-Pope has gone over this point prop total in four of his last five games.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope was on the Los Angeles Lakers team that defeated the Miami Heat in the bubble in 2020. He can draw on that experience as a champion when he faces the same rival tonight. Caldwell’s playoff experience and leadership have been key for the Nuggets ‌this postseason.

Butler Should Be Occupied with Murray

The Heat have one of the best defenders in the NBA in Jimmy Butler. Butler will be focusing his efforts on Denver Nuggets sharpshooter Jamal Murray. Murray has been key for the Nuggets this postseason, and his action with Nikola Jokic in the pick-and-roll will be the main focus of the Heat defense.

This will create plenty of opportunities for role players such as Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.

Caldwell-Pope Shines in Postseason Shooting

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is shooting 48.1% from the field this postseason, being above 40% from three in four of his last five games.

This type of marksmanship will be on display tonight when Caldwell-Pope has plenty of opportunities due to the Heat’s attention on the Nuggets’ bigger stars. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope will go over on his point prop tonight.

The Pick

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Over 10½ Points -107 at BetOnline

Key Facts

• The Nuggets have an excellent +11.8 Net Rating in the first quarter this postseason.
• Miami has a +0.6 Net Rating in the first quarter of the playoffs and has needed six double-digit comeback wins to reach the Finals.
• In the regular season, Denver was No. 4 in the first quarter Net Rating (+8.0) and Miami was No. 21 (-2.3).

Home Sweet Home

In the regular season in home games, Denver was 23-18 (56.1%) at covering a 2.5-point spread in the first quarter, a better record than on the road (16-25, 39.0%). The Heat have trailed by more than 2 points in 18-of-41 road games (43.9%) this season.

Flipping the First Quarter Script for Both Teams

For as good as Denver (12-3) has been this postseason, you may be surprised to learn the Nuggets have only led by 3-plus points in 6-of-15 playoff games. Not everything has been as smooth as Nikola Jokic’s epic first quarter against the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals when he had 8 points, 12 rebounds, 5 assists, and 2 blocks as Denver led 37-25.

Meanwhile, the Heat has only trailed by more than 2 points after a quarter in 6-of-18 playoff games, so we are going against the grain with this prop. But it is counting on Denver to show its dominance early as the more rested team, the better offense, and the homecourt advantage with the altitude.

The Pick

Nuggets 1st Quarter -2½ (-110) at Bovada

Key Facts

• Aaron Gordon will be needed to play plenty of minutes against the Heat.
• Gordon is averaging 5.5 rebounds per game during this postseason.
• Gordon had 6 rebounds in Game 4 against the Lakers.

After playing the Los Angeles Lakers, the Nuggets will face a much smaller team in the Miami Heat tonight. The Lakers had plenty of size to counteract the Nuggets with, whereas in this matchup the Nuggets definitely have the size advantage. Aaron Gordon will be one of the players to use the Nugget size advantage to his benefit tonight.

Gordon will be much taller than whoever he is matched up against

After facing players like LeBron James, who is 6’8, 260 lbs, the Heat plays much smaller lineups. At times, Jimmy Butler, who is only 6 ft 6, will play power forward. Aaron Gordon will have a huge size advantage over him. Gordon is 6’8, 235 lbs and that will play in his favor when he is attempting to get rebounds

Gordon Should See Plenty of Time

There is no reason to run a heavy rotation in the NBA Finals. There are plenty of days off between games, many of the starters will get more minutes, and the bench players will get less.

Take that into consideration when making NBA player props during the NBA Finals. We will target starters who have been efficient this postseason. Aaron Gordon meets those criteria. He will have a big night and go over his rebounding prop.

The Pick

Aaron Gordon Over 5½ Rebounds -112 at BetOnline

Key Facts

• Denver is well rested and is a league-best 14-7-1 ATS (66.7%) with a rest advantage this season.
• Miami is 6-10-1 ATS (37.5%) with a rest disadvantage this season.
• The Over is 23-15 (60.5%) in games where Miami is an underdog, the 2nd-best record in the NBA, and 18-11 (62.1%) when Miami is a road underdog.

Will Denver Be Rested or Rusty?

Much will be made of Game 1 being Denver’s first game in 10 days after sweeping the Lakers while the Heat had to grind out a Game 7 win in Boston on Monday night. Denver was only 2-2 ATS with 4-plus days off this season, but overall, with a rest advantage, no team was better than Denver (14-7-1 ATS). Denver won both regular-season matchups as well.

Game 1 Homecourt Advantage

The Heat is an incredible 9-2 SU in Game 1s in the Jimmy Butler era, but this may be the toughest test yet in Denver’s altitude against such a great offense with this rest gap. There is also the seeding gap with Miami a No. 8 and Denver the No. 1 seed in the West.

Since 1996, the home team is 23-4 SU in the NBA Finals, including a Game 1 win in the bubble by the 2020 Lakers against the Heat. Two-thirds of these games saw the home team win by more than 8.5 points, so most Game 1s have not been close.

Denver’s Elite Playoff Offense

In the playoffs, the Nuggets are on fire with the highest Offensive Rating (119.7), assist-to-turnover ratio (2.27), rebound rate (53.4%), true shooting rate (59.5%), and lowest turnover rate (11.7%). Much of this is due to Nikola Jokic’s all-around talents. Miami’s offense also has been much better than expected after a regular season where the Heat scored a league-low 109.5 points per game.

But the Over is 11-7 (61.1%) in the playoffs for Miami. For Denver, 12-of-15 playoff games have gone Over 219 points, and none of its three series have had more than one game go Under 219 points.

The Picks

• Nuggets -8½ (-115)
• Over 219 (-110)

2-Team Parlay (+257) at Bovada

Key Facts

• The possibility of a Nuggets vs. Heat matchup in the NBA Finals presents a good scenario for Denver, as they would have home-court advantage and the benefit of playing at high altitude.
• Denver’s size advantage with players like Aaron Gordon, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Bruce Brown presents a challenge for Miami’s star player Jimmy Butler, while the Heat lack significant size behind Bam Adebayo to handle Nikola Jokic effectively.
• Denver swept the regular-season series. 

Worst Ever?

Are we in the midst of the worst conference finals round in NBA history? If they both end in sweeps, the answer might be yes. No matter how early they do end, the NBA Finals will not start until June 1. No NBA team has ever rallied from a 3-0 series hole to win, which is a surprise. 

In that scenario, a guy could get hot and carry a team to four straight wins, but it hasn’t happened. In MLB and the NHL, it has. 

Possible Matchup

Denver beating Miami is -175 on the exact NBA Finals outcome at BetOnline, and that’s one of our picks for our futures. The Nuggets would have a home-court advantage and a big one playing at the altitude. 

The Heat don’t have much size behind Bam Adebayo to deal with Nikola Jokic in a possible Finals matchup.  

The Flip Side

On the flip side, Denver can throw big bodies like Aaron Gordon, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Bruce Brown at Heat star Jimmy Butler. The Nuggets won the regular-season series 2-0 with Jokic averaging 23.0 points, 12.0 rebounds and 10.0 assists.  

Miami’s chances of upsetting Denver would improve if 20-point scorer Tyler Herro can return from an injury suffered in Game 1 of Round 1 vs. Milwaukee, but the 2022 NBA Sixth Man of the Year reportedly isn’t close yet.  

If we expect Denver to beat Miami at -175, let’s also grab the Nuggets to win outright.

The Pick

Nuggets to Win NBA Championship -200 at Bovada