Best MLB Bets Today
Looking for the best MLB bets today? Our expert team of analysts provides you with the most accurate and profitable moneyline, runline and total bets. We thoroughly research and analyze betting data and trends to provide you with the most informed advice to increase your edge.
- Louie Varland reliably gives up a lot of hits and home runs.
- Jose Altuve is having a tremendous season so far.
- Altuve matches up excellently against Varland.
Who Starts for Minnesota?
Louie Varland starts for the Twins tonight. Varland’s 4.24 ERA is bad, but this stat is actually flattering. It masks a 5.43 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding), which reveals just how poorly he is performing individually. One problem is that he is allowing home runs at a ridiculous rate.
In six starts, he has allowed a total of nine home runs. He has allowed at least one home run in every start so far but one, and he has allowed multiple home runs in three different starts, but even looking past his vulnerability to the long ball, he allows many hits in general.
Despite struggling to go deep into his starts, he has allowed five or more hits in all but one of them, and he has allowed at least six hits in all but two of them. One vulnerable element of his pitching arsenal is his fastball, which he throws almost half the time.
Its quality is rather mediocre – it places in the 40th percentile in velocity and in the 55th percentile in spin. Moreover, he frequently leaves this pitch in the more middle parts of the strike zone where batters tend to do greater damage.
Especially Jose Altuve is worth investing in. As evident in his .324 BA and .588 slugging rate, he is enjoying a tremendous season so far.
His outlook today is especially positive because he matches up well against Varland. Altuve is 7-for-13 with a 1.077 slugging rate against Varland’s pitches from righties.
Jose Altuve Over 1½ Total Bases (From Hits) (+120) at BetOnline
- Mitch Keller has added a sharp cutter to his arsenal, resulting in a huge leap in strikeout rate and leading to a 3.01 ERA and 3.06 xFIP.
- Alex Wood had a high 4.88 xFIP that belies his 3.51 ERA, with a walk rate more than doubled from last season.
- The Pirates are above average in wRC+ vs. left-handed pitchers at 104. compared to 94 vs. righties.
Mitch Keller of the Pirates may be putting himself in the Cy Young conversation, and he gets our call when visiting Alex Wood and the Giants.
Cuts Like a Knife
Keller has steadily improved his command since being a highly touted rookie in 2019, and now adding a sharp cutter to his arsenal has him in the midst of a break-out season at the prime age of 27.
That cutter has helped Mitch raise his strikeout rate from a modest 7.81 K/9 last season to a robust 11.14 this year, leading to a 6-1 record with a 3.01 ERA and 3.08 xFIP. He is coming off of his first bad start of the season after allowing six runs in six innings, but his command was still fine with eight strikeouts vs. two walks.
Wood has a deceptive 3.51 ERA, given that it is accompanied by an unflattering 4.88 xFIP. Alex relies on keeping batters off-balance as his mostly sinker/slider/change-up mix, so it is alarming that his soft-contact rate is at a career-low 10.7% after standing at 15.4% last year.
Also, his walk rate has more than doubled from 2.07 BB/9 last year to 4.56 this season, and he is facing a Pittsburgh offense that has been above average vs. southpaws like himself with a wRC+ of 104, compared to a below-average 94 vs. right-handers.
It seems like the one bad outing by Keller last time out is giving him better line value here, and we will gladly take the better pitcher as an underdog.
Predicted Score: Pirates 5 – Giants 2
Pirates +110 at Heritage Sports
- Braxton Garrett has a nice xFIP of 3.57, nearly a full run lower than his ERA.
- Blake Snell has been in decline since joining the Padres in 2021 and he has a ghastly walk rate of 5.58 BB/9.
- The Marlins have been much better offensively vs. left-handed pitching with a wRC+ of 122 compared to an 89 vs. right-handers.
We feel that the home underdog has the better starting pitcher in this spot, making Braxton Garrett and the Marlins basically auto-plays as they host Blake Snell and the Padres.
Has Pitched in Bad Luck
Garrett comes in 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA, but he has pitched in bad luck with his xFIP nearly a full run lower at a very good 3.57. He has always had a good strikeout rate since entering the Major Leagues in 2020 and that has continued this season with 8.81 K/9.
Braxton’s best pitch is a heavy 90 MPH sinker that has generated a 45.9% groundball rate to go along with the strikeouts. His ERA is bloated by a .348 BABIP allowed, and it should approach his xFIP as that BABIP normalizes.
Not Cy Young Any More
Snell won the Cy Young Award for the Rays in 2018, and much was expected of him when joining the Padres in 2021 with his home games in a pitchers’ ballpark. But alas, he has been a big disappointment and this season has been his worst one yet so far.
He enters with an unsightly 1-6 record, 5.04 ERA and 4.71 xFIP while struggling mightily with his command, owning a brutal walk rate of 5.58 BB/9.
Now he must contend with a Miami offense that has been much better vs. southpaws with a wRC+ of 122 compared to just 89 vs. righties.
We think that the wrong team is favored here, so back the home-standing Marlins as small underdogs Wednesday.
Predicted Score: Marlins 6 – Padres 4
Marlins +105 at BetOnline
- Mets are 14-6 when hosting Philadelphia.
- Phillies Taijuan Walker is 7-21 facing a team with a winning record the last two seasons. (Team’s Record)
- Mets are 52-22 as a home favorite of -125 to -175 since 2021.
Scuffling NL East Teams In Search of Hot Streak
The New York Mets tried to buy a division title and hopefully much more with their off-season spending spree. Philadelphia was confident that last year’s squad that went to the World Series could duplicate last year’s final five months and send them back to the Fall Classic.
However, spending money or thinking you can replicate past success is never a given. New York has hovered around .500 in the first third of the season, with Philadelphia on the wrong side of that number in the same span of time.
In the series final, each will look to get the upper hand before moving on to their next opponent.
Phillies Need Runs, Mets Have to Allow Fewer Free Passes
Philadelphia is 24th in runs allowed. That is a problem that needs solving, but the bigger surprise is the Phillies offense, which is 22nd in touching the home plate. Not having the Bryce Harper of a year ago along with Rhys Hoskins has made the Phils easier to pitch to. Philly needs players like Trea Turner and Nick Castellanos to do more offensively to get this group going.
New York is better offensively and in run prevention than their rivals, yet, they find ways to beat themselves. Specifically, the Metropolitans starting pitchers average 3.96 walks per nine innings; only Oakland is worse. Keep the bases clean and New York can win 8 of 10 to supercharge their season.
New York Has All the Value
In this matchup, you have to choose Max Scherzer (3-2, 3.54 ERA) over Taijuan Walker (4-2, 5.57). Scherzer has an ERA of 1.00 in his past three starts and is 16-5 lifetime vs. Philly. Walker has a 6.75 road ERA with opposing bats ringing up a .311 batting average.
Mets -165 at Bovada
- Jared Shuster is the weakest link in the Atlanta rotation with a 5.33 ERA and 5.95 xFIP, making him unworthy of this much favoritism.
- James Kaprielian would probably not be in any other Major League rotation, but his 5.87 xFIP is a tick better than Shuster’s.
- Surprisingly, the lowly Athletics have the better offensive wRC+ split in this game.
The team with the worst record in baseball actually appears to be offering value when James Kaprielian and the Athletics host Jared Shuster and the Braves Wednesday.
He is the Weakest Link
The rookie Shuster is the weakest line in the Atlanta rotation coming in at 1-2 with a 5.33 ERA and a terrible 5.93 xFIP. He has one of the worst command ratios in the league, with a K/BB ratio of 7.11/5.33 per 9 while allowing a ridiculously low 8.3% soft-contact rate.
Jared clearly does not appear ready for the Major League level with his presence due mainly to an injury-depleted pitching staff, and he is simply not worth this prohibitive price. He is facing an Oakland offense ranked 12th in the majors in wRC+ vs. left-handers at a respectable 108.
Better xFIP at Big Price
Now granted, Kaprielian would probably not be part of any other big-league rotation with his 8.45 ERA, but his xFIP stands at 5.87, which while still terrible, is still slightly better than Shuster’s. That is a nice trait for a bigger than +200 underdog.
Also, the Braves have surprisingly been slightly below average offensively vs. right-handed pitching this year, ranking 14th in that category in wRC+ at 97, and they have struggled mightily in this series overall, scoring a total of three runs in two games.
So with the lowly A’s having the better offensive split and the starter with the better xFIP in this game, we see no reason not to jump on Oakland as a prohibitive underdog.
Predicted Score: Athletics 5 – Braves 4
Athletics +207 at Bookmaker
- Underdogs have won 3 of the last 4 meetings in Toronto between the Brewers and Blue Jays.
- Cincinnati is 4-0 O/U on its current road trip.
- Veteran Alan Porter (7-2-1 O/U/P) calls balls & strikes at Fenway Park tonight.
Talk about a couple of careers at opposite junctures. Julio Teheran (0-1, 1.80) is all but playing with house money for the Brewers right now while Alek Manoah (1-5, 5.53) is under a lot of pressure with the Blue Jays, and has so far shown he can’t stand up to the pressure.
Hitters Batting .323 vs. Manoah at Rogers Centre
After knocking around in the Mexican League and Atlantic League a year ago, Teheran returned to a major league mound for the first time in more than two years with 5 innings of 1-run baseball against the Giants last week. San Francisco pulled off a bullpen shutout in that game, and this will be his first look at the Blue Jays since 2018 when Teheran was employed by the Braves.
Manoah had a couple of flashes of brilliance in April but has been nothing short of a huge bust in 2023. Only Kansas City’s Brad Keller has walked more batters than the beefy Manoah, and he has been especially vulnerable at home (7.23 ERA, 21 BB, 6 HR, 23.3 IP).
The 2nd Leg of the Parlay
Cincinnati sends Luke Weaver (1-2, 5.45) to the bump in Boston against James Paxton (1-1, 5.14) when the Reds and Red Sox continue their series on Wednesday, and with the wind blowing out towards the Green Monster, it should be another slugfest between the clubs.
‘Over’ Cashes 10 of Last 11 Red Sox Home Games
Cincinnati has won just 2 of Weaver’s 7 starts, and that was mostly due to Reds hitters providing enough punch to get the dubyas. Weaver is coming off his best effort of the season with 6+ innings of goose eggs last week against his former Cardinals mates, but Cincinnati is winless in his three road starts.
Paxton will be facing his third NL club since making his season debut earlier this month following a hamstring injury during spring training and a lengthy rehab assignment that was none too impressive. The Angels took him deep twice in his short 3-inning stint last Wednesday in Anaheim.
- Brewers (+168)
- Over 10 (-113)
2-Team Parlay (+405) at BetOnline
Guide to Placing the Best MLB Bets
If you’re a baseball fan, you probably already know that there’s nothing quite like watching your favorite team hit a home run. But did you know that you can also make money off of those homers? That’s where MLB best bets come in. We will cover everything that you need to know about betting on America’s favorite national pastime.
MLB best bets are the wagers that sports bettors place on the most likely outcomes of Major League Baseball games. This can include bets on individual players, like which pitcher will get the most strikeouts or which batter will hit the most home runs, as well as bets on which team will win a particular game.
To make the most out of MLB best bets, it’s important to do your research. Look at past performances, current standings and the latest injury reports to help you make informed decisions when enjoying some baseball betting. For example, if the New York Yankees are playing the Boston Red Sox and the Yankees’ ace pitcher is injured, that could impact the outcome of the game and make it more likely that the Red Sox will win.
But even with all the research in the world, there’s still an element of chance involved in sports betting. That’s why it’s important to only bet what you can afford to lose and to never let your emotions get the best of you. After all, even the best teams can have an off day and there’s always the possibility of an upset.
What MLB Best Bets Are
When it comes to MLB best bets, it’s important to understand what you’re betting on and how to maximize your chances of winning.
MLB best bets are wagers placed on the most likely outcomes of Major League Baseball games. For example, you might place a bet on the New York Yankees to win a game against the Boston Red Sox or you might bet on a specific player to hit a home run or get the most strikeouts in a game.
To make informed MLB best bets, it’s important to consider a variety of factors, such as past performance, team chemistry and current injuries. For example, if the Yankees’ star player is nursing an injury, that could impact their ability to perform and potentially affect the outcome of the game.
How Our Experts Choose the MLB Best Bets
Choosing the best MLB bets requires a combination of knowledge, expertise and research. Our expert handicappers take a variety of factors into consideration when making their picks and baseball predictions, including past performance, current team dynamics and potential injuries.
To start, our experts closely follow the latest gambling news, player and team news and rumors surrounding each team and player. They analyze each team’s strengths and weaknesses and consider how those factors could impact the outcome of a game.
Additionally, our experts take a data-driven approach to analyzing player and team performance. They look at a wide range of statistics, such as batting average, on-base percentage and earned run average, to gain insights into each player’s potential performance in a given game.
Our expert handicappers also consider factors such as home-field advantage and weather conditions when making their picks. For example, if a team is playing in a notoriously difficult ballpark or if there’s a high chance of rain, that could impact the outcome of the game and affect our experts’ predictions.
Ultimately, our baseball experts use a combination of their knowledge, experience and data analysis to make informed and strategic MLB best bets. While there’s no guarantee of success, our experts’ careful analysis and research can increase your chances of making winning bets.
To make the most of our experts’ MLB best bets, it’s important to stay up to date on the latest gambling news, updates and analysis, as well as to carefully manage your bankroll and bet responsibly. By following these tips and making informed bets, you can enjoy the excitement of Major League Baseball while potentially winning big.
Understanding MLB Betting Odds
To be a successful MLB bettor, it’s essential to understand betting odds. Betting odds reflect the probability of a particular outcome in a game and they help bettors determine how much they stand to win on a given bet.
MLB betting odds are typically presented in three formats: American odds, decimal odds and fractional odds. American odds are the most common odds format used in the United States of America. They are expressed with a plus or minus sign and show how much money you need to bet to win $100 or how much you could win with a $100 bet.
For example, if the New York Yankees are listed at -150, you would need to bet $150 to win $100. On the other hand, if the Yankees are listed at +150, a $100 bet would net you a $150 profit.
Decimal odds are the most popular odds format in Europe and Australia. They show the total amount a bettor would receive for a winning bet, including their original stake. For example, if the Los Angeles Dodgers are listed at 1.75, a $100 bet would pay out $175, including your original stake.
Fractional odds are less common than the other two formats but are still used in some parts of the world, particularly in the UK. They show the ratio of the potential profit to the original stake. For example, if the Boston Red Sox are listed at 5/1, a $100 bet would net you a $500 profit.
Understanding MLB betting odds is crucial for bettors to make informed decisions and maximize their profits. It’s also essential to shop around and compare odds from different online sportsbooks to find the best value bets. The best online sportsbooks will offer very competitive betting lines, but they won’t always offer the same lines, which is why shopping around and comparing the odds from multiple betting sites is so important for baseball bettors.
As a bettor, you should also be aware of the different types of bets available, including moneyline bets, run line bets and over/under bets. We will cover the most popular baseball bet options below. By understanding MLB betting odds and the different types of bets available, you can develop a winning betting strategy and increase your chances of success.
Popular MLB Betting Types
MLB offers a variety of betting options that attract fans from all walks of life. Here are some of the most popular MLB bet options:
- Moneyline Bets: This is the most common type of MLB bet. Moneyline bets involve betting on which team will win a game outright. For example, if the New York Yankees are playing the Boston Red Sox, you might bet $100 on the Yankees to win at -125 odds. If they win, you would win $80.
- Run Line Bets: Similar to a point spread in football, run line bets offer bettors the chance to bet on a team to win by a certain margin. For example, a run line bet may have the Atlanta Braves favored by 1.5 runs over the White Sox, with odds of +150. If the Atlanta Braves win by two or more runs, you would win your bet.
- Over/Under Bets: Over/Under bets involve betting on the total number of runs that will be scored in a game. For example, if the Over/Under for a game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants is 8.5, you might bet the Over, meaning you believe the teams will combine to score 9 or more runs. If they do, you would win your bet.
- Futures Bets: Futures bets allow bettors to wager on events that will happen later in the baseball season, such as which team will win the World Series or who will win the American League MVP award. Futures bets can offer some of the biggest payouts, but they are also the riskiest.
- Prop Bets: Prop bets involve betting on specific outcomes or events within a game. For example, you might place a player prop bet on if the San Diego Padres will be the first to score in a game or how many strikeouts Shohei Ohtani will record.
In conclusion, there are many MLB bet options available and each has its own unique risks and rewards. When placing a bet, it’s important to do your research and understand the odds before making a decision. Remember to bet responsibly and never bet more than you can afford to lose.
How to Use Our MLB Best Bets
If you’re new to MLB betting, using our best bets can be a great way to get started. Here are some tips to help you make the most out of our MLB best bets:
First, it’s important to understand the betting lines. Our best bets will typically include information about the odds for each game. For example, a team might be listed as a -150 favorite, meaning you would need to bet $150 to win $100. Alternatively, a team might be listed as a +120 underdog, meaning a $100 bet would win you $120 if that team wins. Understanding these odds can help you make informed decisions about which bets to place.
Second, it’s important to consider the context of the game. Our best bets will often include information about key injury alerts, recent performance and other factors that can impact the outcome of the game. Paying attention to this information can help you make more accurate predictions.
Third, don’t be afraid to look beyond the moneyline. While betting on the winner of the game is the most common type of bet, there are many other options to consider. For example, you can bet on the run line, which is similar to a point spread or the total runs scored in the game. Our best bets will often include information about these alternative bets.
Finally, it’s important to practice responsible gambling. Don’t bet more than you can afford to lose and always set a budget for your betting activity. Remember, while our best bets can help you make informed decisions, there is always an element of uncertainty in sports betting.
FAQs – MLB Best Bets
What are MLB best bets?
MLB best bets refer to the most promising or profitable betting opportunities in Major League Baseball, based on a variety of factors such as team performance, player statistics and betting odds. These bets cover both regular season games and the biggest games of the season.
What factors should I consider when using MLB best bets?
When using MLB best bets, consider factors such as team performance, player injuries and statistics, previous head-to-head matchups reports, current betting odds and overall trends in the league.
Can I use historical data to improve my MLB betting?
Yes, historical data can be used to improve MLB betting by providing insights into team and player performance, game and betting trends in the league and past outcomes of similar matchups. Analyzing past data can help game bettors make more informed decisions and increase their chances of success.
Should I rely solely on MLB best bets for my betting strategy?
No, it is not recommended to rely solely on MLB best bets for a betting strategy. It is important to consider multiple factors and do your own research to make informed decisions. Best bets can be a helpful tool, but should be used in conjunction with other strategies.
How can I measure my success when using MLB best bets?
To measure success when using MLB best bets, keep track of your wins and losses and calculate your overall return on investment (ROI). It’s also important to assess your betting strategy and make adjustments based on your results.