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Key Facts

• Louie Varland reliably gives up a lot of hits and home runs.
• Jose Altuve is having a tremendous season so far.
• Altuve matches up excellently against Varland.

Who Starts for Minnesota?

Louie Varland starts for the Twins tonight. Varland’s 4.24 ERA is bad, but this stat is actually flattering. It masks a 5.43 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding), which reveals just how poorly he is performing individually. One problem is that he is allowing home runs at a ridiculous rate.

In six starts, he has allowed a total of nine home runs. He has allowed at least one home run in every start so far but one, and he has allowed multiple home runs in three different starts, but even looking past his vulnerability to the long ball, he allows many hits in general.

Despite struggling to go deep into his starts, he has allowed five or more hits in all but one of them, and he has allowed at least six hits in all but two of them. One vulnerable element of his pitching arsenal is his fastball, which he throws almost half the time.

Its quality is rather mediocre – it places in the 40th percentile in velocity and in the 55th percentile in spin. Moreover, he frequently leaves this pitch in the more middle parts of the strike zone where batters tend to do greater damage.

Jose Altuve 

Especially Jose Altuve is worth investing in. As evident in his .324 BA and .588 slugging rate, he is enjoying a tremendous season so far.

His outlook today is especially positive because he matches up well against Varland. Altuve is 7-for-13 with a 1.077 slugging rate against Varland’s pitches from righties.

The Pick

Jose Altuve Over 1½ Total Bases (From Hits) (+120) at BetOnline

Key Facts

• Mitch Keller has added a sharp cutter to his arsenal, resulting in a huge leap in strikeout rate and leading to a 3.01 ERA and 3.06 xFIP.
• Alex Wood had a high 4.88 xFIP that belies his 3.51 ERA, with a walk rate more than doubled from last season.
• The Pirates are above average in wRC+ vs. left-handed pitchers at 104. compared to 94 vs. righties.

Mitch Keller of the Pirates may be putting himself in the Cy Young conversation, and he gets our call when visiting Alex Wood and the Giants.

Cuts Like a Knife

Keller has steadily improved his command since being a highly touted rookie in 2019, and now adding a sharp cutter to his arsenal has him in the midst of a break-out season at the prime age of 27.

That cutter has helped Mitch raise his strikeout rate from a modest 7.81 K/9 last season to a robust 11.14 this year, leading to a 6-1 record with a 3.01 ERA and 3.08 xFIP. He is coming off of his first bad start of the season after allowing six runs in six innings, but his command was still fine with eight strikeouts vs. two walks.

Deceptive ERA

Wood has a deceptive 3.51 ERA, given that it is accompanied by an unflattering 4.88 xFIP. Alex relies on keeping batters off-balance as his mostly sinker/slider/change-up mix, so it is alarming that his soft-contact rate is at a career-low 10.7% after standing at 15.4% last year.

Also, his walk rate has more than doubled from 2.07 BB/9 last year to 4.56 this season, and he is facing a Pittsburgh offense that has been above average vs. southpaws like himself with a wRC+ of 104, compared to a below-average 94 vs. right-handers.

It seems like the one bad outing by Keller last time out is giving him better line value here, and we will gladly take the better pitcher as an underdog.

Predicted Score: Pirates 5 – Giants 2

The Pick

Pirates +110 at Heritage Sports

Key Facts

• Braxton Garrett has a nice xFIP of 3.57, nearly a full run lower than his ERA.
• Blake Snell has been in decline since joining the Padres in 2021 and he has a ghastly walk rate of 5.58 BB/9.
• The Marlins have been much better offensively vs. left-handed pitching with a wRC+ of 122 compared to an 89 vs. right-handers.

We feel that the home underdog has the better starting pitcher in this spot, making Braxton Garrett and the Marlins basically auto-plays as they host Blake Snell and the Padres.

Has Pitched in Bad Luck

Garrett comes in 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA, but he has pitched in bad luck with his xFIP nearly a full run lower at a very good 3.57. He has always had a good strikeout rate since entering the Major Leagues in 2020 and that has continued this season with 8.81 K/9.

Braxton’s best pitch is a heavy 90 MPH sinker that has generated a 45.9% groundball rate to go along with the strikeouts. His ERA is bloated by a .348 BABIP allowed, and it should approach his xFIP as that BABIP normalizes.

Not Cy Young Any More

Snell won the Cy Young Award for the Rays in 2018, and much was expected of him when joining the Padres in 2021 with his home games in a pitchers’ ballpark. But alas, he has been a big disappointment and this season has been his worst one yet so far.

He enters with an unsightly 1-6 record, 5.04 ERA and 4.71 xFIP while struggling mightily with his command, owning a brutal walk rate of 5.58 BB/9.

Now he must contend with a Miami offense that has been much better vs. southpaws with a wRC+ of 122 compared to just 89 vs. righties.

We think that the wrong team is favored here, so back the home-standing Marlins as small underdogs Wednesday.

Predicted Score: Marlins 6 – Padres 4

The Pick

Marlins +105 at BetOnline

Key Facts

• Mets are 14-6 when hosting Philadelphia.
• Phillies Taijuan Walker is 7-21 facing a team with a winning record the last two seasons. (Team’s Record)
• Mets are 52-22 as a home favorite of -125 to -175 since 2021.

Scuffling NL East Teams In Search of Hot Streak

The New York Mets tried to buy a division title and hopefully much more with their off-season spending spree. Philadelphia was confident that last year’s squad that went to the World Series could duplicate last year’s final five months and send them back to the Fall Classic.

However, spending money or thinking you can replicate past success is never a given. New York has hovered around .500 in the first third of the season, with Philadelphia on the wrong side of that number in the same span of time.

In the series final, each will look to get the upper hand before moving on to their next opponent.

Phillies Need Runs, Mets Have to Allow Fewer Free Passes

Philadelphia is 24th in runs allowed. That is a problem that needs solving, but the bigger surprise is the Phillies offense, which is 22nd in touching the home plate. Not having the Bryce Harper of a year ago along with Rhys Hoskins has made the Phils easier to pitch to. Philly needs players like Trea Turner and Nick Castellanos to do more offensively to get this group going.

New York is better offensively and in run prevention than their rivals, yet, they find ways to beat themselves. Specifically, the Metropolitans starting pitchers average 3.96 walks per nine innings; only Oakland is worse. Keep the bases clean and New York can win 8 of 10 to supercharge their season.

New York Has All the Value

In this matchup, you have to choose Max Scherzer (3-2, 3.54 ERA) over Taijuan Walker (4-2, 5.57). Scherzer has an ERA of 1.00 in his past three starts and is 16-5 lifetime vs. Philly. Walker has a 6.75 road ERA with opposing bats ringing up a .311 batting average.

The Pick

Mets -165 at Bovada

Key Facts

• Jared Shuster is the weakest link in the Atlanta rotation with a 5.33 ERA and 5.95 xFIP, making him unworthy of this much favoritism.
• James Kaprielian would probably not be in any other Major League rotation, but his 5.87 xFIP is a tick better than Shuster’s.
• Surprisingly, the lowly Athletics have the better offensive wRC+ split in this game.

The team with the worst record in baseball actually appears to be offering value when James Kaprielian and the Athletics host Jared Shuster and the Braves Wednesday.

He is the Weakest Link

The rookie Shuster is the weakest line in the Atlanta rotation coming in at 1-2 with a 5.33 ERA and a terrible 5.93 xFIP. He has one of the worst command ratios in the league, with a K/BB ratio of 7.11/5.33 per 9 while allowing a ridiculously low 8.3% soft-contact rate.

Jared clearly does not appear ready for the Major League level with his presence due mainly to an injury-depleted pitching staff, and he is simply not worth this prohibitive price. He is facing an Oakland offense ranked 12th in the majors in wRC+ vs. left-handers at a respectable 108.

Better xFIP at Big Price

Now granted, Kaprielian would probably not be part of any other big-league rotation with his 8.45 ERA, but his xFIP stands at 5.87, which while still terrible, is still slightly better than Shuster’s. That is a nice trait for a bigger than +200 underdog.

Also, the Braves have surprisingly been slightly below average offensively vs. right-handed pitching this year, ranking 14th in that category in wRC+ at 97, and they have struggled mightily in this series overall, scoring a total of three runs in two games.

So with the lowly A’s having the better offensive split and the starter with the better xFIP in this game, we see no reason not to jump on Oakland as a prohibitive underdog.

Predicted Score: Athletics 5 – Braves 4

The Pick

Athletics +207 at Bookmaker

Key Facts

• Underdogs have won 3 of the last 4 meetings in Toronto between the Brewers and Blue Jays.
• Cincinnati is 4-0 O/U on its current road trip.
• Veteran Alan Porter (7-2-1 O/U/P) calls balls & strikes at Fenway Park tonight.

Talk about a couple of careers at opposite junctures. Julio Teheran (0-1, 1.80) is all but playing with house money for the Brewers right now while Alek Manoah (1-5, 5.53) is under a lot of pressure with the Blue Jays, and has so far shown he can’t stand up to the pressure.

Hitters Batting .323 vs. Manoah at Rogers Centre

After knocking around in the Mexican League and Atlantic League a year ago, Teheran returned to a major league mound for the first time in more than two years with 5 innings of 1-run baseball against the Giants last week. San Francisco pulled off a bullpen shutout in that game, and this will be his first look at the Blue Jays since 2018 when Teheran was employed by the Braves.

Manoah had a couple of flashes of brilliance in April but has been nothing short of a huge bust in 2023. Only Kansas City’s Brad Keller has walked more batters than the beefy Manoah, and he has been especially vulnerable at home (7.23 ERA, 21 BB, 6 HR, 23.3 IP).

The 2nd Leg of the Parlay

Cincinnati sends Luke Weaver (1-2, 5.45) to the bump in Boston against James Paxton (1-1, 5.14) when the Reds and Red Sox continue their series on Wednesday, and with the wind blowing out towards the Green Monster, it should be another slugfest between the clubs.

‘Over’ Cashes 10 of Last 11 Red Sox Home Games

Cincinnati has won just 2 of Weaver’s 7 starts, and that was mostly due to Reds hitters providing enough punch to get the dubyas. Weaver is coming off his best effort of the season with 6+ innings of goose eggs last week against his former Cardinals mates, but Cincinnati is winless in his three road starts.

Paxton will be facing his third NL club since making his season debut earlier this month following a hamstring injury during spring training and a lengthy rehab assignment that was none too impressive. The Angels took him deep twice in his short 3-inning stint last Wednesday in Anaheim.

The Picks

• Brewers (+168)
• Over 10 (-113)

2-Team Parlay (+405) at BetOnline