Mixed Martial Arts has become one of the worlds most popular combat sports of the modern generation. The sport itself is mainly driven by the powerhouse that is ‘The Ultimate Fighter Championship, better known as the UFC. And much like its sporting competitors, the UFC has invaded the world of sports betting. This is no surprise. The sports betting market was inevitably going to receive significant action from martial arts, particularly the UFC, when its home base for pay-per-view events took place in Las Vegas for over a decade.
However, it isn’t just American fans who give praise to martial arts, as Russian, Brazilian and many other countries are highlighted through the endless amount of talent they provide inside an MMA cage.
If you’re struggling with coming to terms with how UFC picks can assist your bankroll, continue reading as we’ll aid you with all the MMA picks, UFC fight night predictions and anything in between that is needed to grow your UFC predictions knowledge. It doesn’t matter if your brand new to the sport or if you’re a long-time fan looking to make a quick buck, our Bookmakers Review (BMR) UFC expert picks guidelines will have you cashing tickets in no time, turning your MMA picks from fun into profit.
UFC Picks & the Odds Involved
How do you Read Odds Without Complications?
One of the most common issues that sports bettors stumble upon is reading the odds and understanding what is at risk in their UFC picks.
The European betting market steer towards a decimal or fractional standpoint when dealing with UFC odds format, but here in America, our traditional method (American odds) is the most simplistic way to garner how your hard-earnt money is being spent.
Bet type one, the underdog; $100 stake on Jorge Masvidal to win at odds of +100 will return $100 profit (or loss) along with your original stake ($200 total).
Bet type two, the favourite; Kamaru Usman’s available odds are -300, and a $300 stake will return a $100 profit along with your original stake ($400 total).
Bet type one is known as even odds or plus-money bets once the price drifts into +120, +130 or beyond. These investments in UFC picks are crucial if you want to profit long term. Bet type two is the opposite and are known as buying the ‘juice’, and although your probability of winning becomes higher, losses can be detrimental as one single losing bet can cost you dearly.
To understand the dangers of UFC fight night picks and betting on the favorites, put this into perspective – Khabib Nurmagomedov, Jon Jones and Karamu Usman have been the only undefeated fighters for the UFC in its twenty-seven-year history and thousands of signed athletes. So, when odds such as -600 are presented, sure, you can make small profits in the short run, but this can eventually catch up and leave your heavily staked bets ($600 for this example) in jeopardy.
Understanding UFC Probability & Line Value
UFC expert picks are often drawn up through a chess game between the bettor (you) and available UFC odds that the bookmaker has provided. The goal of the bettor is to find value in odds that line makers may have overlooked. This can sometimes be accomplished by understanding the probability of the bet you’re making. UFC picks, in general, often favors the house (the bookmaker or casino); they account for losses through utilizing the vig (the vigorish). Your UFC picks placed across multiple sports betting markets often take their profits from losing favorable bets to cover the losses they take in plus money wagers.
Probability calculators can be found on the internet, and once you enter the available UFC odds, a percentage in the likelihood of your bet winning is returned. For example, odds of -400 equal to a probability of 80%; in other words, the bookmaker anticipates the fight in question would be successful for the favourite (-400) eight times out of ten.
Example: If Conor McGregor UFC pick odds are revealing a price of +150, his implied probability of winning becomes 40%. If his opponent Dustin Poirier were priced as the -200 favourite, his implied probability of winning would be 67%.
With this factual information, please bear in mind, odds/line value is human-made, so your probability and chances of winning are not entirely accurate and do not always guarantee a winning UFC bet. It would be best if you first accomplished your due diligence & fighter research.
Understanding the sport and comparing these factors against the odds can sometimes give you an edge over the bookmakers who sometimes discredit fighters more than they deserve. Your job is to hunt out the value you feel the sportsbooks have undervalued. Finding the perfect underdog (plus money bet) for each UFC pick you to make can often become more lucrative than supporting the assumingly favorable fighters drafted up by the sportsbook.
Shopping for Your UFC Odds
Where Should I Bet on the UFC?
The task of deciding on which bookmaker to utilize for your UFC picks can often be a daunting task for beginners. Still, here at Bookmaker Review, we have made your UFC fight night predictions the priority by handling the other work for you.
Our job is to find the best bookmakers, the best available UFC odds and supply them to the general public all under one roof. You can compare us to a supermarket comparison site in the sense that we’ll provide you with the best value odds for the MMA expert picks you’re looking to wager on.
Line shopping manually will drive you insane and become considerably time-consuming, so be sure to review our favorite trusted bookmakers to receive the best odds and promotional offers all on one page without the need to search yourself.
How Should I Bet on the UFC?
Turning your MMA picks for UFC fight night into a real wager/bet is as simplistic as you could imagine. Choose your favorite fighter, decide on the amount you want to stake and search for the best available odds to receive the best return possible.
Once you have found value in a fighter you like, add him to your betting slip via any of our favorite bookmakers. You must then decide how much of your bankroll you want to invest, which is often reflected on the odds you choose to back for your UFC pick.
Professional bettors often stake between 2-5% of their current bankroll for UFC predictions, and this choice of betting is crucial for gamblers who want to profit long term by allowing leeway for losing bets.
Your stake amount for every UFC pick made will vary depending on which betting method you chose to approach. But no matter which way you decide, maintaining a healthy bankroll is imperative for UFC prediction investors to see a return on their money.
Suppose you decide to approach a flat stake betting method. In that case, a return on investment (ROI%) could take a significant amount of time before you gain reasonable profits, which can therefore give bettors the impression of failure. However, it’s essential to choose patience over quick profits because unwise decisions will be made through quick-fire gambling on UFC picks.
The Theory of Compound Interest Betting
This betting method is the most successful but also requires dedication and hard work when making your UFC picks. Well, known businesses and even banking firms outside of the gambling realm have utilized this approach for centuries.
The basics involve staking 1% of your starting bankroll and then adjusting your stake size to the profits you’ve made accordingly. For this example, we will use a starting bankroll of $1000, meaning 1% will equate to $10 per bet.
Example: If the bettor (you) stakes $10 per bet across fifteen fights on your first set of MMA predictions tonight and the profits return $100, your bankroll has adjusted to $1100. The following weeks unit size will then be adjusted to $11 per UFC pick because of our initial 1% staking rule (1% of $1100 equals $11). Of course, we must make room for losses at certain times, which also makes this method a smart choice because of the staking practice involved. Should you lose $100 on the first night, your staking amount will be reduced to $9 per the bankroll of $900 available.
MMA expert picks are often made with hesitancy and complete dedication to understanding odds; obviously, the profits shown above will not create a millionaire overnight. But long-term bettors have witnessed some incredible returns on their investment with this strategy. Once your bankroll surpasses the five-figure stage, your stakes dramatically increase, giving you a more significant return in profits – slow and steady wins the race.
Flat Stake Betting
This betting method is like our previous choice, but the main difference is your stake size does not alter between events; with a profit or loss made, your wager size remains the same. Flat stake betting is the least favored of the two amongst high profile bettors because it can require double the amount of time to return the profits of compound interest betting.
With that said, you’ll find punters making profits on their UFC bets with win percentages as low as 50%, giving the less experienced martial arts bettors a wider margin for losses.
UFC Favorites versus Underdog Wagers
When deciding on the correct UFC predictions, a true defining answer is never guaranteed. This is why backing moderate to slight underdogs for MMA picks is vital over a long period. Not only are these MMA predictions creating more value on the underdog due to odds on favorites being publicly backed more often, but given the current statistics, you could blindly bet all slight to fairly significant underdogs (+100 to +120) and gain a profit.
With this information as your base logic and you as a beginner to MMA betting, this theoretic can be a great place to understand line value and odds.
UFC Picks, UFC Predictions Conclusion
The most critical aspect of UFC predictions and the wagering involved is understanding value and understanding the sport itself. The value created is ultimately artificial, and yes, mathematics has played a considerable part in the bookmaker’s success as their built-in margins and methods protect them from huge losses. Still, ultimately, the lines are created by another person like you or me.
Finding the value is critical; controlling your bankroll is secondary, and remaining a disciplined bettor will reward you in the long run when making predictions for UFC fight night.