Expert Sports Picks for Today

Key Facts

• St. Louis is 12-20 playing against a team with a winning record.
• The Cardinals are 12-23 when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season.
• The Rangers’ run differential is the best in baseball by +28 runs.

The St. Louis Cardinals started horribly at 10-24, found a little to begin turning around their season when reaching 22-28, but things have gone south again for the Redbirds. St. Louis has lost eight of 11 since, and they have fallen back into the basement of the feeble NL Central.

Texas was supposed to be improved with a better roster and coaxing Bruce Bochy out of retirement as manager, and has that ever worked. The Rangers’ 39-20 record is second only to Tampa Bay, and they have far and away the top run differential in MLB with an electric lineup.

Not Sure How Redbirds Slow Rangers Offense

St. Louis is scheduled to use port-sider Matthew Liberatore (1-1, 4.91 ERA), who has nine starts between this year and last. His ERA is almost 6.00 and he’s facing the most dangerous lineup in the sport that scores 6.4 RPG and against left-handers that jumps to 7.2 RPG.

Liberatore only has a 1.5 K-to-W ratio, so if he is giving this Texas lineup more baserunners, his night could be very short.

With the absence of Jacob deGrom, Dane Dunning has filled in splendidly at 2-1, with a 2.28 ERA. He’s a tweener as a No. 5 starter and long reliever. His WHIP of 1.19 shows he gives out few free passes (six in 27 2/3 innings) and he’s keeping the ball in the yard with no long balls surrendered and just a .270 slugging percentage permitted.

With Texas 20-8 at Globe Life Field, the money line is reasonable to back the home team to win again.

The Pick

Rangers -146 at Heritage Sports

Key Facts

• The A’s are 5-26 on the road losing by 3.8 RPG.
• Mitch Keller is 10-2 against the run line this season.
• Okland is 7-20 against the run line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season.

At this point, Oakland is on pace to be one of the all-time worst teams in baseball history. At 12-50, and being outscored by 3.4 runs a game. There is even speculation on social media that if the A’s had to go through the process of playing in men’s tournament to reach the College World Series, they would be eliminated before getting to Omaha.

Not sure if that would be true, but every victory at this point by them feels like a stunner.

Pittsburgh Should Stripe Oakland

The Pirates started fast at 20-8, then went through a long decline that saw them tumble below .500 (26-27) but have started hitting again and is 6-0. This is the perfect situation for Pittsburgh to keep rolling, and they just passed Milwaukee for the NL Central lead.

Tonight, they will utilize ace Mitch Keller (7-1, 3.25 ERA), who at 27 seems to have “found it”. The command of all his pitches has led to more strikeouts and fewer hits allowed, and at the moment, he is one of the best hurlers in the National League.

As long as Keller is focused, he should handle an Oakland lineup that is last in runs scored at 3.4 per contest.

Oakland will send out James Kaprielian (0-6. 8.12 ERA) who is part of the problem, not the solution, and the Bucs bats should have a bunch of good swings.

The Athletics are 23-39 on the run line and 6-17 against the RL vs. a starting pitcher who strikes out five or more batters per start this season. Make it Pittsburgh, big!

The Pick

Pirates -1½ -123 at Heritage Sports

Key Facts

• Golden Knights are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings with the Panthers.
• Golden Knights are 7-2 in their last 9 road games.
• Golden Knights are 6-1 in their last 7 games following a win.

The Knights proved that Game 1 was no fluke and failed to come unglued despite the Panthers turning nasty after falling behind. The result was a 7-2 Vegas victory and the Knights will now skate into Sunrise, Florida with a 2-0 series lead.

Florida racked up 46 penalty minutes in the opening game and tacked on 84 on Monday night for a whopping 130 combined minutes of sitting in the sin bin, allowing the Knights to skate early and often with a man advantage.

In Game 2, those penalties resulted in two power-play goals by Vegas, but it also put plenty of wear and tear on the Panthers, who constantly had to chase the Knights and ultimately empty their gas tanks.

As I stated before the series began, the downtime for Florida did them no favors after they repeatedly slayed the dragons of the Eastern Conference with stunning wins over the Bruins, Maple Leafs, and Hurricanes. There was a definite malaise in Game 1, but that turned to frustration in Game 2 as Vegas goalie Adin Hill has been a steel curtain in the net, while the Vegas offense continues to bedevil Sergei Bobrovsky and the Florida defense.

The venue may have shifted, but the results will be the same.

The Pick

Vegas +111 at BetOnline

Key Facts

• Astros are 62-31 under vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB’s a start).
• Houston is 27-12 under against AL East opponents since last season.
• Blue Jays are 13-6 under vs RH starters.

How Low Can You Go?

It is Game 2 between Houston and Toronto. The Astros have heated up in taking eight of 11 contests, while the Blue Jays have left the AL East basement in winning seven of 11 games.

Hunter Brown is expected to toe the slab for Houston and he is 5-2 with a 3.61 ERA. Brown averages 1.18 K’s an inning. The right-hander is 4-0 on the road with Houston 5-1 in six starts and has a .235 batting average allowed, which is 25 points lower than at home.

The Blue Jays are a home favorite with Kevin Gausman on the hill. Though he’s only 4-3, Gausman has a 2.76 ERA with a WHIP of 1.12, and his strikeout numbers are even better than Brown’s, at 1.33 per inning. And he doesn’t beat himself with better than a 5-to-1 K/W ratio, with a .206 BA allowed.

Brown has allowed three or fewer runs in five of his last seven starts and Gausman has done the same in six of his last seven trips to the mound. This total opened at Under 8.5 (-120) and quickly fell to 8. Let’s trust both starters to do their job along with bullpens.

Going to side with the under with Houston 40-22 under vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.20 or lower, and most importantly, the average score of those 62 games is 7.0 total runs.

Score Prediction: Blue Jays 4 – Astros 3

The Pick

Under 8 -113 at Heritage Sports

Key Facts

• Denver has been held under 110 points in consecutive games for the first time this postseason.
• Denver has scored at least 113 points in 6-of-7 road playoff games.
• Denver scored 112 points in its only trip to Miami this February in a game without Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon.

Denver’s Offense Will Travel

The Nuggets have shot over 50% from the field in both games despite only scoring 108 and 104 points, two of their three lowest-scoring games this postseason. Denver still shot 49.4% from the field in road games this season, ranked as the 3rd-highest rate in the NBA. Denver is at 50.3% in road playoff games, which is the best in the playoffs. Denver’s 117.6 points per game in the playoffs on the road is the second-best average this postseason.

The 3-Point Shooters Must Step Up

Denver’s offense is struggling from the 3-point line in this series after failing to crack 30% in Game 1 and 40% in Game 2. Michael Porter Jr., Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Jamal Murray have all been pretty cold so far from 3. If Denver can get bounce-back games from a couple of those players, they should be able to score their most points yet in this series.

The Pick

Denver Nuggets Team Total Over 109 Points -110 at BetOnline

Key Facts

• In the playoffs, 9-of-17 Denver games have gone over 110.5 first-half points, including 6-of-7 road games.
• Game 1 and Game 2 both featured 49 total points in the first quarter before the teams shot better later in the game.
• The over hits in 60% of Miami playoff games and in 60% of games where Miami is the underdog.

Both Teams Need to Raise Intensity

Neither game in this series has gone over 110.5 points by halftime, but they were at 108 in Game 2. A slow start by each team in the first quarter has been the main culprit here as Miami was poor to start Game 1 and Denver was poor to start Game 2.

In this game, both teams should now understand the right amount of intensity needed to start the game with the series tied 1-1. Denver is looking for better 3-point shooting while the Heat could be trying to get Tyler Herro back on track if he gets his first action since Game 1 of the first round.

Change of Venue Is No Problem

In four of the last six Game 3s in the NBA Finals, the first-half total has gone over 110.5 points. The Nuggets will look for more scorers to complement Nikola Jokic, who is now 0-3 this postseason when he scores over 40 points. The Heat are also looking for the first signature Jimmy Butler game of this series.

The Pick

First Half Over 110½ -110 at Bovada

Key Facts

• Under is 8-3 in Panthers’ last 11 overall.
• Under is 8-3 in Panthers’ last 11 vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
• Under is 5-2 in Panthers’ last 6 games playing on 1 day’s rest.

These teams have combined for 16 goals over the first two games, therefore, it’s certainly not surprising that we have seen the total climb half a click from 5½ to 6 for Thursday night’s game. The public will be burying over the posted total because that’s how they’re naturally inclined, but they also know that this series has been a goal-scoring bonanza for the over bettors.

However, have you noticed that only one team has been doing most of the scoring? That’s right, the Knights have averaged six goals per game, while the Panthers have scored two goals in each of the first two contests.

So, what changes in Game 3 you might ask? Well, for starters the venue is different and the Panthers have gone from road dogs to home chalk. Therefore, if the conventional wisdom is that they will win the game, wouldn’t it be fair to believe that the total will likely go low, considering the under has cashed in six of Florida’s last seven victories?

But even if they don’t win, I am certain we will see a more disciplined effort from the Panthers and much less time in the penalty box which will result in a lower-scoring game. Either way, go low.

The Pick

Under 6 -110 at Bookmaker

Key Facts

• Denver is 19-13 ATS (59.4%) after a loss, the 2nd-best record in the NBA this season.
• Miami is 21-33-3 ATS (38.9%) after a win, the 4th-worst record in the NBA this season.
• Denver has had 13-of-17 playoff games go over 215.5 points.

Denver Is Still Trustworthy on the Road

While the Nuggets are only 4-3 on the road in the playoffs, their 120.3 Offensive Rating and +3.9 Net Rating in road games are still the best marks this postseason. Denver is also 12-8 ATS as a road underdog this season, but Denver is actually still favored in this matchup. 

Miami is 6-2 at home in the playoffs but lost its last two home games to Boston.

3-Point Shooting Regression

Boston fans won’t like the sound of this, but 3-point shooting regression should catch up with Miami at some point here. The Heat were ranked 27th in the regular season, making 34.4% of their 3-point shots. But they shot it so well against Boston in the Eastern Conference Finals, and they have outdone Denver, which ranked No. 4 in the regular season (37.9%) in the first two games of the Finals. The Heat generated 18 more points from 3 than Denver did in Game 2, and that ultimately proved to be the difference.

Jamal Murray misfired on his game-tying 3-point attempt, but Michael Porter Jr. is slumping really badly right now with a 1-for-6 night in Game 2 after going 2-for-11 in Game 1. Gabe Vincent has made 9 3s in this series so far for Miami after shooting 6-for-13 in his last three games against Boston. He should cool down here.

Highest Scoring Game Yet?

The Nuggets outshot Miami by 3.3 percentage points in Game 2 but still blew a 15-point lead and lost after Miami shot lights out in the fourth quarter. Denver was 43-1 this season when outshooting the opponent by at least 3 percentage points, but that is what losing the 3-point battle can do.

Denver should cut into that margin after the Heat shot 48.6% from 3 in Game 2. The potential return of Tyler Herro is unlikely to be a huge tip in Miami’s favor so soon. Trust the Nuggets to win a high-scoring game and regain control of this series.

The Picks

• Nuggets -2.5 -110
• Over 215.5 -110

2 Team Parlay +264 at Bovada

Key Facts

• The Orioles are the only AL team with 20 road wins.
• Monday’s win was the Rangers’ 9th in their last 10 matchups against the Cardinals.
• Texas is 4-0 on the current homestand.

A couple of starting pitchers who generally stick around long enough to factor in the decision – one way or the other – tangle Tuesday night in Milwaukee, and the right play is on the visitors when the Orioles and Brewers begin an interleague series.

O’s Have Won Last 3 Road Series

Kyle Gibson (7-3, 3.89) is coming off a so-so performance against Cleveland, allowing 3 runs while working into the sixth for his third consecutive win. He was outstanding in a couple of road assignments before that, going 7 in each outing at the Blue Jays and in New York against the Yankees, giving up just 1 run combined to those potent lineups.

Freddy Peralta (5-5, 4.62) is coming off a loss at Toronto, allowing 3 runs in 6 frames while the Brewers didn’t back him up with much offense in a 3-1 defeat last Thursday. Prior to that, the Giants tagged Peralta for 10 runs (4 earned) before he could get through the third inning of a lopsided home loss.

The 2nd Leg of the Parlay

A chance to become the second team in the majors to reach the 40-win plateau awaits the Texas Rangers on Tuesday night when they send Dane Dunning (4-1, 2.06) to the mound in Arlington against Matthew Liberatore (1-1, 4.91) in the second game of their series with the Cardinals.

Rangers’ Semien Ups Hit Streak to 24 Games

Liberatore made a splash in his season debut nearly three weeks ago by tossing 5 shutout innings against the Brewers to lead St. Louis to a 3-0 win. His first road start of the season did not go nearly as well with a 5-IP, 4-ER linescore at Cleveland on May 26th. The former 1st-round pick (2018) hasn’t pitched since and Liberatore owns a lifetime 7.90 ERA in road games.

Dunning is making just his second home start since moving into the Rangers’ rotation in early May, and the former Florida Gator shut down a stout Atlanta lineup in his lone assignment at Globe Life Field. Including April relief work, Dunning sports a 1.47 ERA in 18.1 home innings.

The Picks

• Orioles (+110)
• Rangers (-146)

2-Team Parlay (+254) at BetOnline

Key Facts

• The last 4 meetings between the Dodgers & Reds in Cincinnati went ‘Over’ the totals.
• The Dodgers finished 8-2 O/U on their last road trip.
• The Braves have won 9 of their last 12 at home against the Mets.

Even with some superb numbers on the road for Los Angeles starting pitcher Tony Gonsolin (3-1, 1.77), the ‘Over’ is the play Tuesday evening when the Dodgers begin a series in Cincinnati against Lucas Weaver (1-2, 5.36) and the Reds.

Last 12 Reds Series Openers: 10-2 O/U

All three of the Dodgers’ losses with Gonsolin on the mound this season came on the road. However, that has been a product more of Los Angeles bats stagnating in those games than Gonsolin’s pitching, as evidenced by his 1.35 ERA in four road assignments. His last two starts in Cincinnati have resulted in splits for the Dodgers while Gonsolin allowed 5 runs in 7+ innings.

Cincinnati somehow managed to split Weaver’s four starts at Great American Ball Park despite the righthander owning a 5.64 ERA in those 21.1 frames. It hasn’t mattered where Weaver faces the Dodgers in the past (7.57 ERA, 27.1 IP), with Max Muncy a particularly tough batter to get past (4-13, HR, 4 BB).

The 2nd Leg of the Parlay

It is almost impossible to come up with a reason to bet the Mets in Tuesday’s series opener against the Braves, making Atlanta an easy call with Bryce Elder (3-0, 1.92) on the mound opposite Carlos Carrasco (2-2, 5.74) and New York.

Met’s Reach Atlanta on 3-Game Slide

Carrasco’s first start back from the injured list a little more than two weeks ago didn’t go so well, but he has since responded with a couple of stellar outings that resulted in wins at the Cubs and home against the Phillies. The Venezuelan worked at least 6 innings in both games, with the only runs allowed coming on solo homers.

The Braves should be ashamed of themselves for losing 2 of Elder’s 6 starts in May while he pitched to a 1.72 ERA (36.2 IP). One factor in his success is just 4 HR allowed in 10 assignments, and 3 of those came in one game against the Marlins.

The Picks

• Over 10 (-114)
• Braves (-161)

2-Team Parlay (+204) at BetOnline

Key Facts

• Golden Knights are 6-1 in their last 7 games following a win.
• Golden Knights are 7-2 in their last 9 road games.
• Under is 8-3 in the Panthers’ last 11 overall.

1st Leg of the Parlay

The Knights have taken control of this series with a 7-2 win on Monday night and now travel to Florida with a 2-0 series lead and an opportunity to win their first Stanely Cup in this, their third championship series in the franchise’s brief six-year history.

Penalties have been a big part of this series, and it’s been the Panthers who have taken the lion’s share, with a combined 130 penalty minutes in the first two games. They are clearly coming undone and becoming frustrated when they fall behind. Too many cheap shots have resulted in too many man-advantage opportunities for the Knights, which is a big reason why the Cats are down.

The location will shift from Vegas to Sunrise, Florida but the results will be the same because Sergei Bobrovsky has lost whatever mojo he has had since being tapped as the starting goalie in Game 4 against Boston. Conversely, Knights’ goalie Adin Hill has been spectacular and will continue to be so on Thursday night. Bet the Knights.

2nd Leg of the Parlay

These teams have combined for 16 goals over the first two games, with the Knights doing most of the scoring. And because of these high-scoring affairs, the oddsmakers have bumped the total from 5 ½ to 6 on Thursday night. Yet, I am quite sure the public will still be betting over like they’re reading tomorrow’s newspapers.

However, I’m thinking quite the opposite will happen. Penalties have been a big concern for the Panthers as they have been in the sin for 130 minutes, allowing three power-play goals over the first two contests. There is no way they can continue to be whistled for cheap shots and sloppy penalties if they are to have any chance of clawing their way back into this series.

I see a low-scoring affair in Game 3 simply because the Panthers understand they must change tactics. There will be a greater focus on sound defense, while the Knights will be content to continue to play their game and beat the Panthers in the transition game culminating in scoring opportunities. Let’s also consider the stellar play of Vegas goalie Adin Hill and how he has frustrated Florida in the first two contests. Go low here.

The Picks

• Golden Knights +111
• Under 6 -115

2 Team Parlay +294 at BetOnline