College football went about as planned over the weekend, with a minimum of upsets and most of the top teams doing what was expected.
In the NFL, well you know, if you were expecting it to follow what is supposed to happen, you had a losing week.
We dive in and cover both sports from the weekend. This and thoughts about the MLB Postseason along with very early NBA surprises.
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About Last Weekend…
Tampa Bay and Green Bay were both upset Sunday, giving them losing records at 3-4. We are familiar that both teams are getting poor offensive line play, the skill position players are either not very good or underperforming and each defense was supposed to be a strength and they are average at best to this point.
Nevertheless, Rodgers and Brady are part of the problem. Both look disengaged, frustrated by the lack of ability around them, yet also are missing wide-open receivers and throwing check-downs and enough off-target to matter. Brady’s in the better position because the NFC South doesn’t have a winning team. Still shocking to witness.
Seattle was believed to be the worst team in the NFL with Geno Smith under center. Instead, Smith is having a fantastic season, his team is 4-3 and he’s having a better year than TB12 and A-Rod. We know the Chargers’ roster is depleted, but Pete Carroll had Seattle dramatically better prepared than his younger counterpart Brandon Staley Sunday in the Seahawks decisive upset.
Everyone applauded San Francisco for going ‘all-in’ on Christian McCaffrey. But unless the 49ers’ offensive line improves and the secondary does the same, San Francisco will have an expensive toy with no draft picks after they were routed by Kansas City.
No sirens went off in college football this past weekend. Still, there were things to learn for football bettors. If UCLA cannot put up a big number, their defense is not good enough to make them a Top 8 team as we saw at Oregon. Pretty much the same thing is true of Ole Miss, who did not hold up at an improving LSU.
Clemson remains undefeated, just not sure if they are the 5th-best team in college football, lacking enough playmakers outside to create big plays against the elite teams.
TCU was down 28-10 to Kansas State and roared back to win at home to stay undefeated. A lot of bettors were not pleased to throw away those +3.5 point tickets on K-State.
Finally, let’s put Texas to bed with a third loss, and let’s realize this is a Top 20 club by talent and nothing more.
With the Phillies and Astros wrapping up their series on Sunday, the Fall Classic is set for Friday.
Betonline has Houston at -190 to win the series and Philadelphia at +165. A little surprising off the top is Over 5.5 for series length at -200.
- Chicago is 10-2 Under in October games the last three seasons. (Monday)
- Tampa Bay is 2-10 ATS when playing on a Thursday.
- Carolina is 0-9 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record.
- Cleveland is 0-8 ATS after playing their last game on the road.
- Houston is 2-14 ATS in home games after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half.
- Minnesota is 12-2 ATS in home games after a win by 10 points or more.
- Chicago is 23-10 Under versus teams who make 14 or more 3-point shots a game.
- Washington has won 10 of 11 over New Jersey.
- Vancouver is 15-2 at home vs. Carolina.
- New Jersey is 9-0 Over after a win by one goal in their previous game.
- Utah is 9-1 ATS after two straight games where 70 total points or more were scored. (Thursday)
- East Carolina is 2-10 ATS after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better. (Friday)
- Rice is 22-4 ATS at home after gaining 6.25 or more yards a play in their previous game.
- Tulsa is 9-0 ATS as an underdog since 2020.
BMR’s Betting Pulse
We conclude Week 7 with the Bears against Patriots and a complete breakdown for you. Then we move ahead to Thursday with the Ravens at the slumping Buccaneers and offer up our Early Line Value plays.
We have college football on Thursday and Friday for your viewing pleasure. Besides our Early Value Plays, on Tuesday we start looking at the Week 9s top battles that feature Ohio State at Penn State, Kentucky at Tennessee and Georgia vs. Florida.
For Monday and Tuesday we are releasing our ATS, Money Line and Total picks, along with Tuesday’s Warriors at Suns showdown.
Make certain to examine our daily picks on games and props.
MLB – Is it a Time For Change in the Yankees Front Office?
With the New York Yankees one-trick offense a non-factor in being swept by Houston, Yankees fans are calling for change by the ownership. If getting to the World Series is the gold standard for the Pinstripes, this might answer the question.
NFL – Doug Pederson
Though the public was more than happy to take the New York Giants with the points, sharp bettors had Jacksonville as did a lot of contestants in high-priced football contests.
Coach Doug Pederson was praised for the Jaguars’ 2-1 start but since, Jacksonville has lost four in a row and Sunday again showed his ineptness and needless risk-taking. Jacksonville was ill-prepared for Daniel Jones to run with the ball (why?) and his 107 rushing yards kept scoring chances alive.
With the Jags ahead 17-13 and on the Giants’ 20-yard line, on 4th and 1, Pederson passed on a chance to put his team up 20-13 with a field goal and didn’t get the first down.
New York takes the ball, marches down the field for the TD and makes the lead hold up. Nobody knows what might have happened had Jacksonville made the field goal, however, everyone understands it would have taken two Giants scores to win.
NFL – Aaron Rodgers in New Role?
It is early in the week, but it’s hard to see this changing much. Green Bay is currently a 10.5-point road underdog at Buffalo for next Sunday night and that would be the first time Rodgers has been a double-digit underdog.
NFL – Betting
With Tampa Bay losing outright, that set off a chain reaction of parlays getting buried and sportsbooks cleaned up. Most of the books won because of the Bucs’ failures, with the public doing well with the Raiders, Jets and Giants to prevent another public bloodbath.
NFL – The Streak Ends
The Atlanta Falcons were blitzed by Joe Burrow and Cincinnati’s passing offense and were never a threat to cover the +6.5 points, which ended their perfect 6-0 ATS start.
NCAAF – Say What?
David Pollack of ESPN over the weekend said “We better get used to Alabama losing one game or maybe more during the regular season.” We get his point that the Crimson Tide might not be the dominant force as in other championship years.
What was dumbfounding about him saying that, including this season, Alabama has lost a regular season contest in eight of the past 11 years.
Out The Door
MLB Playoffs – Baseball Oddity: What’s in a Name?
Today Ranger Suárez picked up the save after Robert Suárez had a blown save the previous inning.— OptaSTATS (@OptaSTATS) October 23, 2022
It's the first time since saves became an official stat in 1969 that two pitchers with the same last name and first initial had a save and blown save in the same game (reg or post).
NBA – What The Heck?
The Philadelphia 76ers changed their roster to add more defense and were supposed to be improved. The Sixers are 0-3 SU and ATS.
Utah traded away star players and were thought to be arguably the worst team in the Western Conference.
The Jazz is 3-0 SU and ATS with three outright upsets. Say What!
Who is Right?
Tonight on the ice, St. Louis visits Winnipeg. The Blues are 3-0 and the Jets are 2-3, having lost their last two and are at 4.0 goals a game surrendered in their past four starts.
St. Louis has only permitted 5 goals thus far and the total on this conflict has risen from 6 to 6.5. What doesn’t make sense is that 90% of the money and 80% of the bets are on the Under. What is your call?
Let’s get some winners! See you back here Wednesday!