NFL Week 7 Monday Night Football Betting Picks and Prediction: Bears vs. Patriots

profile image of Matthew.Jordan
Bailey Zappe #4 of the New England Patriots warms up prior to a game against the Cleveland Browns. Nick Cammett/Getty Images/AFP.

Don’t expect many points from at least one of the two teams on Monday night to close Week 7 as the Chicago Bears visit the New England Patriots.

Which way to lean at BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks

PLAY NOW: $25,000 Free-To-Play NFL Contest: BMR’s 2022 Pick’Em Pool Opens for Registration

Chicago Bears vs. New England Patriots 

Monday, October 24, 2022 – 08:15 PM EDT at Gillette Stadium 

When the NFL schedule first was released, the projected story line here was the first meeting between two quarterbacks chosen in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft: Justin Fields by Chicago and Mac Jones by New England.

The Patriots might have taken Fields if he were still there at No. 15 overall, but the Bears traded up to No. 11 to get him, that decision is not looking great so far. Alas, it doesn’t look as if Jones will start Monday due to injury. 

New England has won five straight games in the series, but they haven’t played since Oct. 21, 2018 in Chicago when Tom Brady was still the Patriots’ quarterback and Mitchell Trubisky was for the Bears, who are 2-3 ATS on the NFL odds during the five-game series skid. 

Fields Continues To Struggle 

There’s really no way to sugarcoat how bad the Bears are from a passing perspective. 

Justin Fields has a brutal rating of 72.7, near the bottom of the league. Chicago is averaging just 122.8 yards per game through the air, several teams average more on the ground, with four TDs and five picks.  

At least Fields has thrown for at least 174 yards in three straight games, but the Bears have lost them all and are only averaging 13.67 points during the skid.

In last Thursday’s 12-7 home loss to Washington, the Bears somehow failed to produce any points on three possessions that reached the Commanders’ 5-yard line. How is that possible? 

Offensive Issues

It's hard to blame Fields because his offensive line isn’t good, his receiving group is terrible and the first-year coaching staff just doesn’t trust him.

The running game is decent with Fields and tailbacks David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert, the Trade Deadline is right around the corner, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Montgomery is dealt because he’s set for free agency.

The Bears rushed for 238 yards on 37 carries vs. Washington and fell to 66-7 all-time when running for at least 238 yards. 

Coach Matt Eberflus, a defensive guy, said he planned to evaluate the entire team during the mini-bye between the Thursday in Week 6 and the Monday in Week 7. There’s not much Eberflus can do as this roster was stripped down by first-year GM Ryan Poles. 

Tough Defense

Chicago’s defense has been very competitive for the most part and against the Commanders allowed only 214 total yards and 14 first downs, 2-of-11 third-down conversions and gave up just one touchdown, on a drive that started on the Bears' 6 after a turnover. 

The Bears are 2-5 against the spread on the NFL picks in their past seven road games. 

Zappe Fever In New England 

Three rookie quarterbacks have started so far in the NFL this year and no question the best one has been Patriots fourth-rounder Bailey Zappe, who did put up historic numbers last season at Western Kentucky.

He took over for an injured Mac Jones in Week 4 and nearly led an upset of Green Bay but has since won back-to-back blowouts of Detroit and Cleveland.  

Zappe is the only QB in the league with a rating of at least 100 in the past three games and is the first Patriots rookie QB to win his first two starts.

Patriot's Roaster

Zappe would lead the NFL with a rating of 111.4 if he qualified. Yes, the team is using a pretty conservative game plan, but Coach Bill Belichick has not committed to starting Jones when he’s back from his high ankle sprain and that’s not likely to be Monday.

Jones was a first-round pick just 18 months ago, so it would seem a little rash for New England not to put him back in there. 

It's not clear if No. 1 running back Damien Harris will play after missing Sunday’s win at the Browns, but New England has a good 1B in Rhamondre Stevenson. He had 19 carries for 76 yards and two scores.  

Interesting Facts for Monday

Rather ironic that New England is in Chicago on Monday because Belichick tied legendary Bears coach with 324 career wins in Week 6 including playoffs, only Don Shula has more.

The Patriots actually made a trade with the Bears in July, sending former first-round receiver N’Keal Harry to the Windy City in exchange for a 2024 seventh-round selection. Harry hasn’t debuted with the Bears yet due to injury, but probably will Monday.

I don’t know how Chicago will score considering the Pats are allowing only 18.8 points per game. New England is 5-2 ATS in its past seven at home, but I prefer the total.  

Score Prediction: Patriots 20, Bears 13 

NFL Pick: Under 40 Points (-113) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

BetOnline logo
Under 40 Points (-113)
Visit Site

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.