Tom Brady’s offense is bombing after mustering only a field goal in last week’s stunning loss to the Carolina Panthers. Let’s see if the Bucs can get back on track this week as we peruse the NFL odds, analyze this matchup with the visiting Ravens, and try to keep cashing our NFL picks!
Baltimore Ravens vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Thursday, October 27, 2022 – 08:15 PM EDT at Raymond James Stadium
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Carolina Panthers welcomed the Bucs to Charlotte on Sunday and it wasn’t a matter of if they’d lose but by how much. The best sportsbooks had installed the Bucs as 13-point road favorites and many believed the Bucs would blow that number away, considering they were coming off an embarrassing 20-18 loss in Pittsburgh the week before as 10-point road chalk.
But Sunday’s 21-3 setback to Carolina proved to be worse than the one before and it was the 2nd shocking loss in a row for the Bucs. There are now serious concerns about the direction of the team as Tom Brady has seemingly lost control of the offense he once commanded with an iron fist.
Brady’s very public marriage strife coupled with his time away from the team and public meltdowns excoriating his offensive linemen have obviously taken its collective toll.
Fortunately, the Bucs reside in the NFC South, home of the Panthers, Saints, and Falcons, collectively the worst division in the league. And because of that, Tampa’s 3-4 record is good for a tie for 1st place with the lowly Falcons.
As the Bucs prepare to welcome the Ravens, Brady’s passing offense is still ranked No. 6 in the league, averaging 266.1 yards per game, but Tampa’s rushing attack resembles more of a mild affront, ranked 32nd and averaging a paltry 64.4 yards per contest.
Unlike their opponents on Thursday night, the Ravens were able to shake off the funk of an upset loss to a seemingly inferior opponent the previous week and notch a victory last week. The Ravens dropped a 24-20 decision to the Giants in Week 6 before rebounding with a narrow 23-20 win over the Browns last Sunday.
Unfortunately for Baltimore’s backers, they may have won the game but failed to cover the 6.5-point impost. Lamar Jackson was held to just 120 passing yards and was kept off of the scorer’s sheet.
Jackson was very much in the MVP conversation after the first 3 weeks of the season, but his name is rapidly fading from that discussion after his last 4 games in which his 210 passing yards against the Giants is the highest total during that span.
We should also note that Jackson has just 3 touchdowns to 4 interceptions and no rushing touchdowns over the last 4 weeks. And it’s not surprising that the Ravens are now 0-3-1 ATS over those 4 games and will enter this matchup against the Bucs with a 4-3 straight-up record and a 2-4-1 ATS mark this season.
Pick and Prediction
This will be an interesting matchup because neither team is playing up to its expectations. That’s an understatement, to say the least, but the public will be anti-Tampa in this game because they have cost the chalk-eaters a bundle over the last few weeks.
We also shouldn’t discount the schadenfreude effect, people reveling in Tom Brady’s misery. That alone will attract wagers against him, believe it or not.
However, if we bet against the Bucs, it means we are betting on the Ravens, and how good have they been lately? Well, not very, and Lamar Jackson, once a dual threat, has been exposed as a mere mortal over the last several weeks.
Granted, Jackson has had protection issues due to a banged-up offensive line, but he normally has the wheels to camouflage his line’s faults by turning on the jets and making the defense pay with his feet. But that hasn’t been the case this season as the defensive coordinators have game tape on Jackson and they have been adjusting accordingly.
Go for the Bucs
This is a great spot to bet on the Bucs, believe it or not. We are actually getting Tom Brady as a home underdog and we haven’t seen that in a good long time. Then again, it’s been 20 years since Brady was under .500 seven weeks into the season so there are a lot of moving parts in this one.
There are 2 primary statistical reasons why I like the Bucs this Thursday. The Ravens do not defend the pass well, ranked 26th against aerial attacks, allowing 261.3 yards per game. Meanwhile, the Bucs are still ranked No. 6 in passing yards, averaging over 266 yards per game.
Even in defeat, Brady had 290 yards on Sunday and dropped a dime into the hands of a streaking Mike Evans who had nothing but green grass in front of him but uncharacteristically bobbled the ball and watched it drop helplessly to the turf.
Don’t expect a repeat of the last 2 weeks and even though it might be fun watching Tom Terrific be as miserable as the rest of us, don’t let your schadenfreude cost you money.
Score Prediction: Buccaneers 26 – Ravens 20
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.