The crypto-based prediction market platform, Polymarket, has been eyeing a return to the US market, and it has been reported that it was No. 1 on Monday among free sports apps on Apple’s App Store. The anticipation for its return is beginning to soar, even if the legality of prediction markets trading sports event contracts is still unsettled.
Prepared to Launch
Polymarket has been poised to return to the US market after settling a dispute with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in 2022. The agreed-upon settlement obligated them to pay a $1.4 million civil monetary penalty and shut down their operations to all consumers within the United States.
A New Environment
However, much has changed between then and now, with the present administration, a fan of crypto markets and prediction platforms, muscling in on the sports betting market through contracts and not wagers. It is a fine line between the two.
Although prediction markets continue to operate unfettered in all 50 states, including those that have not legalized sports betting, the legal trajectory will likely land in the hands of the Supreme Court, as state and federal courts have issued contradictory rulings.
Nevertheless, prediction platforms like Kalshi have won early legal victories despite the objections of state gaming agencies, whose authority the platforms do not recognize, citing the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as their federal overlord. Many federal courts have agreed, and so the momentum for trading platforms has begun to build steam.
Polymarket’s Strategic Shifts
Polymarket has been acutely aware of the change in temperature under the Trump administration. So much so, in fact, that it not only acquired QCX, a Florida-based CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange, for $112 million but also hired Donald Trump Jr. as a strategic advisor.
Last Sunday, a 60 Minutes profile piece on Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan sparked an onslaught of Polymarket app downloads on Apple’s App Store. Coplan has been outspoken in his criticism of mobile sportsbooks, calling them a “scam” and endorsing contract trading in the sports realm versus bookmaking.
“This [administration] is very pro-innovation, and pro-crypto, and pro-Polymarket, which is amazing,” Coplan told 60 Minutes, adding, “I need help navigating that, right? I’m a young entrepreneur.”
Next Steps
The U.S. Department of Justice dropped its investigation into Polymarket this past summer, shortly before the company acquired QCX. A fundraising round netted $200 million this summer, before Intercontinental Exchange (ICE on the NYSE) invested $2 billion in Polymarket on a valuation of $8 billion.
“Our investment blends ICE, the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, which was founded in 1792, with a forward-thinking, revolutionary company pioneering change within the Decentralized Finance space,” said Jeffrey C. Sprecher, ICE Chair & Chief Executive Officer.
“Shayne Coplan has assembled a team at Polymarket to create a user-driven company relentlessly focused on product, building usage, and distribution. There are opportunities across markets which ICE, together with Polymarket, can uniquely serve, and we are excited about where this investment can take us,” Sprecher added.
Polymarket hasn’t said when it will return to the US, but reports say it will be soon.
