Top NFL Pick: Jordan Love Over 224.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The NFL’s Week 14 schedule has a big game in the AFC between the Bills and Chiefs, which is one of the few instances where a quarterback (Josh Allen) can go into Arrowhead and outscore Patrick Mahomes. Jordan Love also notched a win over Mahomes last week and is looking to stay hot on Monday night against the Giants.
We have a handful of player props for Week 14, which you can always find at top-rated offshore sportsbooks. Feel free to play the picks as singles or parlay your favorites.
Houston Texans vs. New York Jets
Sunday, December 10, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at MetLife Stadium
C.J. Stroud (Houston Texans)
It feels a little weird that C.J. Stroud’s passing line is not even 30 yards ahead of Zach Wilson, who is reportedly coming back to the starting role for the Jets. But Stroud has been a yardage machine as a rookie, to the point where he leads the NFL in passing yards (3,540) going into Week 14. He is not doing it by excessive attempts either, as he ranks No. 3 in yards per pass attempt (8.5).
Stroud has passed for at least 242 yards in 10-of-12 games this season, a remarkable feat for a rookie when you consider how offenses are struggling in 2023. The only games where Stroud was under 200 were against the Saints and Panthers on days where he did not attempt more than 27 passes.
But this offense has been great at producing big plays on a weekly basis and from a variety of receivers. They did lose one of those top receivers this month in rookie Tank Dell, who is out for the season as the slot receiver. But they still have Nico Collins, Noah Brown, Robert Woods, John Metchie, and tight end Dalton Schultz expects to be back.
The Jets have certainly played solid pass defense this year, not allowing anyone to top 280 passing yards yet. But a total of 5 players, including Josh Allen twice, have surpassed 235 passing yards against this defense. The Texans rely on Stroud so much, and he gives his receivers shots for big plays every week, so this looks more than doable for him.
The Pick
Stroud may not pass for 300 yards in this one, but he only needs 218 to hit his over. With the way the Texans can scheme receivers open, this should be a solid choice. Even Mac Jones of the Patriots broke 200 yards on the Jets this year. We’re only asking a little more from the best rookie quarterback in NFL history. The Texans also really do not blow teams out, so Stroud should play the full game and throw passes in the 4th quarter too.
NFL Pick: C.J. Stroud Over 217.5 Passing Yards (-105) at Bovada
Indianapolis Colts vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, December 10, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at Paycor Stadium
Joe Mixon (Cincinnati Bengals)
Would not have said this a week ago, but this game has great shootout chances after the way the Bengals shocked the Jaguars on Monday night. Backup Jake Browning completed over 85% of his passes against a division leader on the road and led his team to 34 points. The list of quarterbacks to do that is tiny and free of any 1-game wonders or scrubs.
We know the Colts score 25 points per game and have hit 20 in every game but the trip to Germany to face New England. They force teams to get into offensive games with them this year, and the Bengals rank dead last in yards allowed, so the defense could make this a shootout too.
Joe Mixon scored 2 touchdowns in Jacksonville as he rushed for 68 yards. He has scored a touchdown in 5-of-6 games going into Sunday.
The Pick
The Colts have allowed 17 rushing touchdowns, the 3rd-most in the league this year. If the Bengals get close to the goal line, they look to give it to Mixon. Count on him to find the end zone here in what could be one of Sunday’s most entertaining games.
NFL Pick: Joe Mixon Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-112) at Bovada
Minnesota Vikings vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, December 10, 2023 – 04:05 PM EDT at Allegiant Stadium
Jordan Adddison (Minnesota Vikings)
While Justin Jefferson is returning from his hamstring injury this week, let’s not forget how good Jordan Addison has been as a rookie for the Vikings this year. He stepped up in Jefferson’s absence, especially when he had 123 yards and 2 touchdowns in that upset of the 49ers on a Monday night.
Over the last 4 games with Joshua Dobbs as his quarterback, Addison has still averaged 51.0 yards per game while sharing the ball with tight end T.J. Hockenson. One would figure that Jefferson resumes being the top receiver and Hockenson is also going to keep producing, so that would put Addison down to No. 3 on the targets chart, and this offense is not going to throw it as often with Dobbs instead of Kirk Cousins at quarterback.
That might explain why the line is low, but this is still a No. 2 wide receiver on a solid schematic offense taking on a fairly weak secondary with the Raiders.
The Pick
Let’s not forget that Addison was producing to start this season even with Jefferson and Hockenson sharing the targets. He had 61, 72, and 52 yards in the first 3 games this season, the first 3 games of his career for that matter.
Addison has gone over 32.5 yards in 10-of-12 games this year. He had some issues with Dobbs in the Chicago game, but the Vikings also barely had any passing production that night. We should trust him to have a solid game as Jefferson may not be ready to go 100% to his usual stat line this week.
NFL Pick: Jordan Addison Over 32.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada
Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, December 10, 2023 – 04:25 PM ET at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills)
Big games for the Bills usually mean Josh Allen throwing a lot of passes and running when he sees fit to carry his offense. It doesn’t often result in wins, and you don’t see him get the support on the ground from his running backs in games like this. But for betting his props, he is a reliable producer of volume in big games, and this is definitely a big one, with the 6-6 Bills likely needing to win out to make the playoffs.
Allen also has an interesting home-road split with his rushing this season:
- Allen has rushed for at least 17 yards in all 5 road games this year, including 4-of-5 games with over 35.5 yards.
- Allen has rushed for no more than 17 yards in all home games except for Tampa Bay when he had 41 yards.
Allen has rushed for over 33.5 yards in 5-of-12 games this year, but he has been much more likely to do it away from home.
The Pick
The reason to trust Allen here is the Kansas City matchup. In 5 meetings, he has rushed for 32, 42, 59, 68, and 88 yards against the Chiefs. The lowest total there, 32 yards, was the last meeting in Arrowhead last season. Allen would have finished that game with 40 rushing yards, but he lost 8 yards on a pair of extended kneel downs to run out the clock and end the game.
That would have been a bad beat for this line, but that means Allen has shown an ability to rush for 40 yards in all 5 games against the Chiefs in his career, as he tries to match scores with Patrick Mahomes. We’ll trust him to take over and do the same this time for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: Josh Allen Over 33.5 Rushing Yards (-105) at Bovada
Green Bay Packers vs. New York Giants
Monday, December 11, 2023 – 08:15 PM ET at MetLife Stadium
Jordan Love (Green Bay Packers)
Are the Packers really going to go back-to-back-to-back on franchise quarterbacks? It was Aaron Rodgers succeeding Brett Favre, but now Jordan Love looks like the real deal after a strong 3-game run of play in wins over the Chargers, Lions, and Chiefs.
He still has a long way to go to stack up to those multiple MVP winners and first-ballot Hall of Famers, but the last month has been very encouraging. Let’s not forget the Packers are extremely young at the skill players too, so they have been learning together with the quarterback.
Love has passed for over 224.5 yards in 9-of-12 games this year, so that’s a very nice hit rate for this line. There may be some apprehension with the MetLife field and a Monday night game, but this could be a good matchup if the Giants blitz often as Matt LaFleur usually has some good plays designed to beat that.
The Packers played the Giants in London last year and that was the game where Aaron Rodgers injured his thumb. He finished with 222 yards and probably would have had more without the injury.
The Pick
The Giants are blitzing 41% of the time this year but only getting pressure on 20.6% of plays (21st in the NFL). Love should have opportunities for big plays and we are counting on him to keep delivering for Green Bay, a franchise making others green with envy with the way they keep developing these quarterbacks who weren’t even top 20 draft picks.
NFL Pick: Jordan Love Over 224.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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