Some bettors are disappointed when they see a small card, but I have no idea why.
Small cards mean that we have more time to break down games more deeply and thus to perceive betting opportunities that we might not have otherwise perceived. There are two fantastic wagers to place tonight.
My top NCAAB picks today will focus on Saint Joseph’s vs. Syracuse and Iowa vs. Iowa State. For both games, I will be looking to take advantage of extensive win streaks.
Win Streaks Continue Tonight
Saint Joseph’s, as a 13-point underdog, travels to Syracuse with a four-game win streak that includes a victory over Temple at a neutral site. The Hawks are playing their best defense of the season, as evident in the low point totals that they are allowing.
Syracuse, to be fair, is coming off a win that was huge. The Orange just upset Tennessee at home. This victory creates the potential for an emotional let-down because, after beating such a high-profile opponent, it will be hard for them to take the Hawks seriously.
However, they’ll need to take Saint Joseph’s seriously.
This is a Syracuse team that, before catching Tennessee in the midst of a three-game losing streak, had lost three in a row after only beating Monmouth at home by five.
As for Iowa State, the Cyclones are undefeated this year. They are coming off a 23-point win over Purdue. Iowa has yet to face such a difficult opponent matchup-wise, and yet there are even historical reasons that indicate why we should wager on the Cyclones as 11.5-point favorites.
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Iowa State Cyclones (Iowa State -11.5)
Before you invest in a double-digit favorite, you’ll want to be confident in that team’s ability to score a lot of points.
Iowa State has won each of its last four games by 18 or more points because, with the sixth-most efficient offense, it can score a lot. The Cyclones in their last four games scored:
- 78 points against Creighton
- 95 against Syracuse
- 132 against Alcorn State
- 81 against Purdue
I like them tonight because their head coach knows how to prepare them for success against their in-state rivals. In their last home game against Iowa in 2024, Iowa State won 90-65.
Match-up-wise, the Cyclones have so many ways to attain a high-scoring output.
They can bully an Iowa team inside that lacks size and strength to contain even their lesser offensive players like Blake Buchanan and Dominykas Pleta. For example, the Cyclones scored 78 points against Creighton while only making five threes.
Keep in mind that the Cyclones rank third in three-point efficiency, so they can also thrive from deep just like they did against perimeter defenses that rank higher than Iowa’s.
Iowa’s offense relies super heavily on Bennett Stirtz. He averages 18.8 points per game, whereas all of his teammates average fewer than nine points per game. Stirtz is a point guard, which is bad news because he’s about to get the Braden Smith treatment.
In Purdue’s blowout loss against Iowa State, Smith’s offensive rating was 86, which is 35 points below his season average. Iowa State point guard Killyan Toure is a stifling on-ball defender who, along with fellow guard Tamin Lipsey, ranks top-45 in steal rate.
Expert Pick: Iowa State -11.5 (-110) at BetOnline
Saint Joseph’s Hawks vs. Syracuse Orange (Syracuse -13)
Syracuse will not come close to approaching the point total that it’ll need in order to cover the spread tonight.
The Orange have not shown any signs of becoming hot from behind the arc, where they rank 308th in three-point percentage. To have a strong offensive outlook, they’ll want to face a team that lacks strong rim protection because they’ll want to be able to rely on scoring inside.
Saint Joseph’s, though, has Justice Ajogbor, who ranks 27th in block rate. When Syracuse was held to 60 points in its big loss to Kansas, the Orange similarly faced and struggled with top-caliber shot-blocking. Syracuse’s loss to Kansas illustrates the significance of its opponent’s shot-blocking quality to its ATS outcomes.
On defense, the Orange can be weak inside.
Their defense’s two-point percentage still looks attractive because they faced teams like Drexel that can’t score inside. They are vulnerable inside, though, in tougher matchups, like when the Cyclones converted 65.9 percent of their two-point attempts against them.
Iowa State leveraged the threat that it poses behind the arc to use bullying tactics, finesse moves, and clever passing to thrive at the basket. The Cyclones leaned especially on taller versatile athletes who like to shoot threes but also drive to the basket.
The Hawks have a strong outlook on offense because their scoring revolves around versatile athletes like 6-6 Jaiden Glover-Toscano, a former four-star recruit who has taken a big step forward offensively, and 6-8 slasher Dasear Haskins. While the Hawks will primarily thrive inside tonight, they are also coming off a game in which they made 14 threes.
Expert Pick: Saint Joseph’s +13 (-112) BetOnline
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
