Joe Biden’s Rocky May Fuels Donald Trump’s Lead Surge

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US President Joe Biden speaks about the PACT Act, which expands coverage for veterans exposed to toxic substances, at a YMCA in Nashua, New Hampshire, on May 21, 2024.

The 2024 U.S. presidential election is just over 5 months away, and it appears that the presumptive Republican nominee, Donald Trump has regained his lead over incumbent Joe Biden. This is despite Trump continuing to attend the 1st ever-criminal trial for a former U.S. president in his hush money case in New York. 

While the presidential election odds at the top-rated sportsbooks have largely been tied for several weeks, we now see Trump back on top with -150 odds at BetOnline, a stark change from a few weeks ago when Trump and Biden were both at -105 odds. 

What is fueling the latest Trump push? We check in with the latest update to the 2024 election odds. 

The Latest Election Odds 

At BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review), Trump has -150 odds to win the election while Biden is +130. This is a curious change as BetOnline has been bullish on this being about as close of a tie as it can be, at least since March or so.

Meanwhile, Bovada (visit our Bovada Review) has been leaning towards Trump for months, but even that sportsbook has Trump with just -120 odds compared to +130 for Biden. As a matter of fact, Trump was +115 just a few weeks ago at Bovada.  

BetOnline has also moved the Republican party to -140 odds as the winning party in November’s election. The Democrats moved to +120 after that was a virtual tie for weeks. 

Biden’s Rocky May 

The month of May has not been a great one for the Biden presidency. Protests have taken place at many colleges around the country in support of Palestine in the conflict with Israel. This is in opposition to the government’s allyship with Israel.  

Despite Biden’s threat to stop sending weapons to Israel, it has not cooled down his bad reputation with the youth for his support of Israel as it continues to stage its response to the October 7th attacks from Hamas.  

Biden needs that youth vote to turn out in huge numbers as an edge in November, but instead, he is being labeled “Genocide Joe” on TikTok, an app the U.S. government is threatening to ban if the China-based owners do not sell soon. 

Commencement Chaos

College protests have been a featured part of commencement ceremonies this month, and this came to a head over the weekend when Biden was the commencement speaker at Morehouse College in Atlanta. 

Biden did not shy away from acknowledging the pro-Palestine protestors at the college as he gave his speech. 

“I support peaceful nonviolent protest,” Biden said to students during his speech. “Your voices should be heard, and I promise you I hear them.”

President Joe Biden May 2024 Commencement Address Morehouse College
U.S. President Joe Biden speaks at the Morehouse College Commencement as a faculty member stands and faces away from the stage in protest of the Israel-Hamas war on May 19, 2024, in Atlanta, Georgia. Elijah Nouvelage/Getty Images/AFP

Turning Backs

However, some students turned their back to Biden while he spoke, and some flat out left, creating a divided student body. It’s clear that the president doesn’t have the full support he’ll need, from this demographic, in November. 

A recent poll from the New York Times pointed out that Biden and Trump are currently tied among 18 to 29-year-olds, a demographic that gave Biden a support of over 60% in the last elections.

Another telling factor is that Trump has secured 20% of support from black voters, which is the highest level of support from this demographic for any Republican presidential candidate since 1964 when the Civil Rights Act was enacted.

Not That Bad

Still, some thought Biden fared well enough at the college, all things considered. Had there been any major gaffe or shouting match with a heckler moment, that would have likely led all major news networks for days. That did not happen, but Biden also did not hit a home run like he did in February when he delivered a confident State of the Union address

Biden could survive the Israel-Palestine conflict if the economy was in better shape. But too many Americans are still feeling the pain of inflation, outrageously-priced groceries, gas and higher interest rates. 

The president takes the blame for such things even if they are not directly in control of them. Meanwhile, the challenger, despite his past tenure in office, does not have to worry about the backlash of a struggling economy or current foreign policy. 

Trump Has It on Easy Street Again 

In fact, when it comes to Donald Trump, nothing seems to slow him down.

Even in his hush money trial, Trump is making the best of things. Out of the 4 cases brought against him, this one was always the least significant and perhaps the most flimsy from the point of proving a felony occurred.  

It’s the only trial in progress and is likely the only one Trump is going to face before November’s election. The public is not going to see what happens in the cases involving January 6th or the alleged election interference in Georgia.

Former President Donald Trump's Hush Money Trial Continues In New York
Former U.S. President Donald Trump returns to the courtroom after a lunch break during his hush money trial at Manhattan Criminal Court on May 14, 2024, in New York City. Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images/AFP

Star Witnesses?

Even better for Trump, Stormy Daniels and Michael Cohen, Trump’s former fixer and lawyer, have not been the greatest witnesses for the prosecution. Clearly, both hold a grudge against Trump, and they have not always given the most concise or honest answers on the stand. 

On Monday, the defense even got Cohen to admit he stole $30,000 from Trump’s company.

If Trump gets out of this case without any guilty charges, it could make the public doubt the veracity of the other cases. 

Trump’s base is strong and loyal, and even if it may not be growing at exponential rates, he’s less likely to run into the problem of losing the interest of voters, unlike Biden and the Democrats who have a huge issue with this right now. 

Worst Case Scenario for Democrats

Remember, the death blow for Democrats in November would be a low turnout. Trump’s base is going to vote for him. Whether the Democrats can keep enough voters interested to go to the polls in November remains to be seen. There is a growing sentiment, especially for registered independent voters, that it does not matter who wins in November. Things will not get better either way. 

That type of apathy favors the Trump campaign. The Democrats might need a bombshell this summer to get this back to even, because right now, Biden is struggling to inspire confidence in new voters. 

Presidential Debates

Maybe that’s why Joe Biden challenged Donald Trump to a couple of presidential debates, last week. Oddly enough one of them was scheduled by CNN for June 27th. This is a bit unorthodox as neither Biden nor Trump will be the official candidate for their respective party by then. 

As a matter of fact, Trump has yet to announce his running mate for November. Currently, the Republican National Convention is scheduled for July 15th, and the Democratic Convention isn’t taking place until August 19th.

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.