With the 2024 Republican National Convention just around the corner, the latest buzz in Washington DC revolves around incumbent President Donald Trump’s choice for running mate in the upcoming elections.
Now, top-rated sportsbooks have opened up this betting market so let’s analyze the current Republican vice presidential nomination odds.
While the spotlight has been on Trump’s recent legal battles, the former Commander-in-Chief has also been quietly assembling his potential cabinet, prompting the biggest question on everyone’s mind: who will be his running mate?
Less than two months ago, South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem was the favorite with odds of +350, followed by Tim Scott at +450, Elise Stefanik at +800 and Tulsi Gabbard at +900. Fast forward to May, and the top five has seen significant changes, especially following Noem’s recent implosion and the sudden rise of Doug Burgum and J.D. Vance.
The Call of the Wild
Back in the middle of March, it seemed that everything was falling into place for Noem. A fervent supporter of Trump in recent years, Noem was also seen as a potential strong partner who could help the former president gain more support among women voters.
However, her upcoming second autobiography has literally buried any hopes of her selection. An excerpt revealed that she admitted to killing her dog for being ‘untrainable,’ as well as a goat. Noem didn’t stop there; she even hinted that President Joe Biden’s dog, Commander, should suffer a similar fate.
Noem doubled down on these statements, arguing that her admission demonstrated her willingness to do whatever is necessary in politics. However, her odds have now plummeted to +4000, placing her alongside some of Trump’s adversaries like Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley, despite DeSantis’s recent support. Rolling Stone recently reported that sources within Trump’s camp revealed the former president finds the story appalling.
Although Noem attended a recent fundraiser at Mar-a-Lago with other vice presidential contenders, she reportedly left early and was not among those Trump called to join him on stage. Burgum, Scott and Vance were among those who went onstage, along with Marco Rubio (+500 at BetOnline) and Byron Donalds (+5000).
Cape Canaveral: We Have a Problem
While Donalds remains relatively unknown outside political circles, Rubio, with odds of +500, appears to offer value… at first glance. However, as the former president pointed out, a potential issue arises because Rubio and Donalds reside in Florida.
According to Article II, Section I, Clause III of the US Constitution:
The Electors shall meet in their respective States, and vote by Ballot for two Persons, of whom one at least shall not be an Inhabitant of the same State with themselves.
Now, you might be wondering: what about the Bush-Cheney ticket back in 2000?
Well, back then, Cheney officially changed his residence from Texas to Wyoming. So, why couldn’t Rubio do the same?
The difference between then and now is that Marco Rubio is currently the senior Senator from the state of Florida. This means he would need to resign from office before relocating. Given the competitive shortlist that includes other heavy hitters like Scott, Rubio has no guarantees.
Is Tim Scott a Shoo-In?
While Scott is currently the favorite at +425 and brings added value to a potential ticket, he is far from a guaranteed pick, especially with the RNC scheduled for July 15th and the sudden rise of two relatively unknown hopefuls.
The Senator from South Carolina has a track record of winning elections in the South as a Black candidate, which is uncommon, especially within the GOP. He has also been a strong supporter of Trump and would likely be a loyal running mate, which aligns with Trump's preferences.
However, recent comments about election results, along with a reduced potential payout, might suggest that taking a chance on two emerging politicians could be more profitable.
Burgum & Vance
The two names that have emerged unexpectedly in the last couple of weeks are Doug Burgum and J.D. Vance. Burgum, the current Governor of North Dakota, is a relatively new face in the GOP. He entered the political arena in 2016 when he won his current position despite having no prior political experience.
He could be a likely pick because he aligns with Trump’s political agenda.
However, the most intriguing choice could be Vance, who has already received Trump's endorsement as a senator in Ohio. The issue with him appears to be his age; he will turn 40 this November. If Trump picks him and they win the elections, it would make him the third youngest vice president in the history of the United States.
In this scenario, age hardly seems to be an issue, and with odds of +550, Vance could potentially offer more value than Burgum. However, if Vance is your choice, consider that there is a Trump fundraiser scheduled for May 15th in Cincinnati, where Vance has been designated as the former president’s “special guest.”
If you think back to the 2016 election, Trump used a similar approach when selecting former VP, Mike Pence. It's also worth noting that a couple of weeks ago, Republican strategist and blogger Ryan Girdusky listed him as one of three names to keep an eye out for.
The other two were Rubio and Alabama Senator Katie Britt; however her odds were taken off the board shortly after she fumbled the response to President Biden's last State of the Union Address.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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