Betting on Donald Trump Trials: Updated Conviction Odds

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Former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to the press after the first day of his trial for allegedly covering up hush money payments at Manhattan Criminal Court on April 15, 2024 in New York City. Angela Weiss - Pool/Getty Images/AFP

The Donald Trump New York hush money trial is winding down as closing arguments are set to begin this Tuesday.

Betting odds have bounced around throughout the trial and currently sit at -260 on Trump being found guilty on at least one felony charge; a 72.2% chance.

The defense rested their case after calling only two witnesses and did not elect to have former Commander-in-Chief Trump take the witness stand.

As the Donald Trump hush money wraps up in New York, sportsbooks have released political betting odds on the outcome of this trial and numerous others.

Odds on if Trump Will Be Found Guilty in Hush Money Case

  • Trial Start Date: April 15, 2024
  • Total Charges: 34

The following markets are currently posted by trusted election betting sites.

Will Trump be found guilty of one or more felonies in New York?

Bettors have multiple choices to wager on Trump being found guilty at trusted offshore sportsbooks.

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Yes -260 / No +190
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Editor’s note 5/27: The odds are now -260 on a conviction.

The odds of Trump being found guilty of at least one felony have bounced around from -260 to -175 all the way back to -260. A $260 wager returns $100 in profit for betting on Trump being found guilty.

Online sportsbook has previously released betting odds on a Trump conviction priced at -300 on yes and +228 on no. Bettors who believe Trump will be acquitted would receive a slightly higher payout, highlighting the importance of line shopping based on which outcome is considered most likely. As of May 21 this market has been suspended and may be relisted later this week.

However, with the decision of the defense to rest its case in the hush money trial, a verdict could be coming soon. The trial, which began on April 15th, was originally scheduled to last six weeks.

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Yes -300 / No +228
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Will There Be a Hung Jury & Mistrial?

Bovada logo
Hung Jury/Mistrial +250 / Verdict Reached -360
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The odds have shifted on the Hung Jury/Mistrial market from +700 through +400 and now sit at +250, while the odds of a verdict being reached dropped from -1600 down to -360. After considering the recent events in this case, it’s understandable why the odds have changed, particularly for a hung jury.

For criminal trials in the state of New York, the jury must unanimously agree on the verdict. This means that a lone juror can serve as a holdout, hence forcing what is commonly called a hung jury. It’s very much expected that the presiding judge, Juan Merchan, would ask the jurors to continue deliberating; however, a lack of consensus would force Merchan to call a mistrial.

In that case, it would be up to the Manhattan District Attorney, Alvin Bragg, to decide whether to retry the case or not.

Odds on if Will Trump Testify in New York Case

UPDATE: The defense has rested their case. Donald Trump will not take the witness stand.

In what would have been an unprecedented sight, there was a chance that the defense would call Donald Trump to testify on his behalf.

However, on Tuesday, May 21st, the former president’s lawyers decided to rest their defense without asking their client to take the stand. While no official comments regarding the decision have been made, it’s understood that the disastrous testimony of the prosecution’s star witness, Michael Cohen, was the deciding factor in avoiding asking Trump to testify.

Will Donald Trump Take the Witness Stand?

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Yes +1493 / No -3500
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According to these political betting odds, there was a 6.28% chance that the former President would take the witness stand, which dropped by 5% from earlier in the week following the conclusion of Michael Cohen’s testimony.

Will Donald Trump violate his gag order an 11th time?

Trump was fined $10,000 for 10 violations of his gag order. Trump has been warned that future gag order violations may result in jail time. Betting odds have been released on Trump violating his gag order again.

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Yes +275 / No -362
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According to these odds, there is a 26.67% chance that the former Commander-in-Chief will run afoul of the judge and will be found in violation of the gag order for an 11th occasion. Despite being heavily juiced, the No seems to be the right pick as the former president has respected the order since it was instructed back on May 6th.

Presidential Debate Odds

  • First Debate: June 27, 2024 in Atlanta, Georgia
  • Second Debate: September 10, 2024 at a venue TBD

Online sportsbooks are known for releasing prop bets on Presidential Debates, and this year is no different. BetOnline is currently accepting bets on whether or not the first debate, scheduled to be broadcast by CNN on June 27, will be canceled.

Maybe there is some value in the Yes, especially after some demands from both sides have been made public. As soon as the debates were announced, AP Press revealed some details, including a request from Biden’s camp to exclude any third-party candidates, specifically Robert F. Kennedy Jr. They also outlined that the debates should take place without any audience.

On the other hand, it was reported that Trump’s camp is pushing for more than two debates, proposing one debate per month from June through September. However, the deal-breaker might have surfaced recently as the former president has voiced his preference for requesting a drug test from Joe Biden.

First Presidential Debate: To Be Canceled or Postponed?

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Yes +300 / No -500
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Apart from the New York hush money trial, Trump’s legal team has a bevy of upcoming cases against the former President that could also result in felony convictions and possible jail time. 

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Classified Documents Trial Odds

  • Trial Start Date: TBD
  • Total Charges: 40 (Indicted for 37 charges on June 13, 2023, and 3 charges on July 7, 2023)

Donald Trump pleaded not guilty last June to a 40-count indictment alleging that he improperly handled classified documents. Federal authorities invaded Mar-a-Lago in search of the documents.

US District Judge Aileen Cannon issued a court order last week indefinitely delaying the start of this trial, which was originally set to begin May 20. It is no longer expected to begin prior to the 2024 Election.

Will Donald Trump be found guilty of one or more of the federal charges against him?

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Yes -130 / No +100
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Federal Election Fraud Charges: What Are the Odds?

  • Trial Start Date: TBD
  • Total Charges: 4 (Indicted on August 1, 2023)

Pundits believe the election interference case brought by Jack Smith, special counsel of the U.S. Justice Department, is one of the weakest cases brought against the former Commander-in-Chief, as the above betting odds reflect.

Will Donald Trump be found guilty of one or more of the 2020 Election Result federal charges?

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Yes -105 / No -125
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There is a 55% chance that Trump will be found not guilty of one or more of the charges brought against him.

Georgia Election Interference Trial: What Are the Odds?

  • Trial Start Date: TBD
  • Total Charges: 4 (Indicted on August 14, 2023)

The case in Georgia, led by Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis, is also considered shaky, much like the federal election charges. It has already been marred by allegations of inappropriate conduct between Willis and the since-recused prosecutor Nathan Wade, with whom Willis had a romantic relationship.

This case has been delayed by the Georgia Court of Appeals. Oral arguments will be heard after Trump’s legal team appealed Fulton Judge Scott McAfee’s decision to allow DA Fani Willis to stay on the case, making it unlikely that the case will go to trial this year.

Will Donald Trump be found guilty of one or more of the 2020 Presidential Election interference charges in Georgia?

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Yes -105 / No -125
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Bookmakers Review will continue to monitor the status of the legal cases faced by Donald Trump and update this article as more betting odds are released by sportsbooks.

Where Can I Bet on the 2024 U.S. Election?

Offshore sportsbooks are accepting bets on the 2024 Presidential Election. 

Many prop bets are expected closer to the election on Tuesday, November 5, 2024. Election betting markets are in high-demand from U.S. bettors more than ever in increasingly polarizing times. 

As licensed brick & mortar sportsbook companies cannot take bets on the election, trusted online sportsbooks recommended by Bookmakers Review remain the best choice for bettors looking to wager on the 2024 Election.