MLB Pick: Over 9 (+100) at Bovada
We have a 14-game slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups today with the two LA teams getting a rare Sunday off. We are on a 6-2-1 run and have three more plays that we feel hold great betting value at the current MLB odds.
These plays are based mostly on our proprietary model. One of the best bets for Sunday comes in Cleveland at 1:40pm ET, where our model likes a total when the Blue Jays visit the Guardians.
Check out more of our daily picks:
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Guardians
Sunday, June 23, 2024 – 01:40 PM ET at Progressive Field
We expect steady scoring in Progressive Field Sunday and are thus betting the Over when Triston McKenzie and the Guardians host Yusei Kikuchi and the Blue Jays.
Tied for Worst xFIP
McKenzie was a highly regarded prospect when he first came up in 2000, and indeed pitched well over his first three seasons. However, he was injured last year when making only four starts and posting a 5.06 ERA and 6.07 xFIP, albeit over only 16 innings. But the bigger issue is he still does not seem right this season while reclaiming a regular rotation spot.
Triston is 3-4 with a 4.46 ERA with a hideous walk rate of 5.37 per nine innings. In fact, even his nondescript ERA may be undeserved considering he has been lucky with a low.246 BABIP allowed. Further evidence of that is his 5.24 xFIP, which ties him for the worst xFIP in baseball among pitchers with at least 70 innings. And he is not showing signs of improvement after lasting just 2.1 innings last out allowing four runs with four walks and not a single strikeout.
Erratic Form
Kikuchi also comes off a rough outing Monday where he surrendered five runs and seven hits in only four innings. Granted, he still has good frontline numbers with a 3.65 ERA and 3.35 xFIP. His problem has been he has been extremely erratic in his 15 starts, either pitching very well or very poorly with a select few outings in between. To be fair, and thankfully for the ERA and xFIP, he has had more good outings than bad outings.
Still, the propensity for Yusei to blow up at any time makes him less trustworthy than other pitchers with similar metrics. But remember, our interest here is in the total and we expect the struggles of McKenzie to continue. That means that Kikuchi may not need to allow many runs to clear this Over, and this is a guy that, true to form, allowed five runs in three of his last five starts while allowing zero and one run the other two outings.
Given McKenzie still not looking healthy, a “bad” Kikuchi here should produce and easy Over. And even if “good” Kikuchi shows up, he may only need to allow a few runs to cash this ticket. Therefore, bet the Over in Cleveland.
Predicted Score: Blue Jays 6 – Guardians 5
MLB Pick: Over 9 (+100) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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