Mets vs. Cubs MLB Best Bet: Struggling Severino Succumbs to Assad

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Luis Severino #40 of the New York Mets makes a play to retire against the Washington Nationals. Scott Taetsch/Getty Images/AFP

MLB Pick: Cubs ML (-109) at Heritage Sports

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Cubs ML (-109)
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We have a 14-game slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups today with the two LA teams getting a rare Sunday off. We are 6-2-1 in the last nine plays, and as usual, we have another three best bets for today’s slate with the best betting value at the current MLB odds.

These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model. Our model favors a side in Sunday Night Baseball from the Windy City with the Mets visiting the Cubs.

Check out more of our daily picks:

New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs

Sunday, June 23, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Wrigley Field

We feel that Luis Severino was overachieving early on in his first season with the Mets. We expect his return to reality to continue and for the Cubs to prevail behind Javier Assad on Sunday night.

Regression in Progress

Severino enters at 4-2 with a good 3.52 ERA in his first year with the Mets after previously spending his whole career with the crosstown Yankees. However, things are not as smooth as they appear as his metrics are lacking, starting with the considerably higher xFIP of 4.34.

Luis was striking out more than one batter per inning in the Major Leagues through the 2022 season. However, the strikeout rate dropped to 7.96/9 last season, and it has dipped further this season to a career-worst 6.51/9. The career-low swinging-strike rate of 8.4% helps confirm that batters are getting better looks at him, and it does not help that his walk rate of 3.31/9 creates a poor K/BB ratio.

And worst of all, Severino’s regression may already be in progress after allowing six earned runs on eight hits in 6.1 innings with just one strikeout last time out.

Quietly Solid

Now, Assad is generally considered to be the Cubs’ fifth starter, but he has been quietly effective for someone with that tag. He is 4-2 with a 2.75 ERA over 15 starts with a jump in his strikeout rate to 9.04/9 over 7.17 and 7.74 respectively his first two Major League seasons.

Javier will not overpower anyone with his 91.9 MPH fastball, but he has a wide variety of four pitches that he has thrown over 10% of the time. However, it is a fifth pitch he is starting to work in more that has us excited for future improvement. That pitch is a slider that he has currently worked in 9.6% of the time that has already garnered an excellent Stuff+ rating of 122!

We think Assad has a bright future as he gets more comfortable with that excellent slider, while we also feel Severino may have begun his descent to earth with his bad last start. Bet the Cubs at home in Sunday Night Baseball.

Predicted Score: Cubs 4 – Mets 2

MLB Pick: Cubs ML (-109) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Cubs ML (-109)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.