Braves vs. Yankees MLB Best Bet: Cortes to Deep Fry Fried

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Nestor Cortes #65 of the New York Yankees pitches in the first inning against the San Francisco Giants. Brandon Vallance/Getty Images/AFP

MLB Pick: Yankees ML (-107) at BetOnline

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Yankees ML (-107)
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We have a 14-game slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups today with the two LA teams getting a rare Sunday off. After going 6-2-1 in our last nine plays, we are back with the three plays we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds.

These value-bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, which points to a side in the headlining Braves vs. Yankees matchup at 1:35pm ET on Sunday.

Check out more of our daily picks:

Atlanta Braves vs. New York Yankees

Sunday, June 23, 2024 – 01:35 PM ET at Yankee Stadium

In a matchup between two of the best teams in baseball, Nestor Cortes has pitched considerably better in Yankee Stadium than on the road. Look for his Yankees to prevail at home over Max Fried and the Braves.

Home Sweet Home

Cortes began his career as a reliever, but he has been a godsend since entering the Yankee rotation in 2021, even being a surprising All-Star in 2022. And he has remained solid this season while deserving a better fate than a 4-5 record, given his 3.36 ERA, 3.90 xFIP and very good K/BB ratio of 8.26/1.73 per nine innings.

But the big story here is Cortes has always pitched better in Yankee Stadium since joining the Bronx Bombers, and this season has been no exception. He has a sparkling 1.57 ERA across 51.2 innings at home with a spectacular ratio of 50 strikeouts against six walks! Also, Nestor’s 3.45 xFIP at home is a full run better than his 4.45xFIP on the road, which is probably the best evidence that the frontline home/away variance is “real”.

Strikeouts Down, Walks Up

Now, we do like Fried also as he is 6-3 with a 3,11 ERA while ranking 15th in the Major Leagues with a 3.26 xFIP. However, this is one time where the splits may not be in his favor, as his road xFIP of 3.47 is noticeably higher than his home xFIP of 2.97.

Also, Max has seen some slippage in his command at the age of 30. Yes, he still owns a good command ratio of 8.14/2.89 per nine innings, but that strikeout rate is now below one batter per inning after sitting at 9.27/9 last year, and his current swinging-strike rate of 10.0% is at the lowest point since 2017. Furthermore, his walk rate us up from 2.09 last season.

So while this is a nice pitching matchup, we feel Cortez has a bigger edge at home than this cheap line indicates. Thus, bet the Yankees in the Bronx on Sunday.

Predicted Score: Yankees 5 – Braves 3

MLB Pick: Yankees ML (-107) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Yankees ML (-107)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.