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JR's 2023-2024 NBA plays
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1-1 tonight as my player prop doesn't hit but Denver rolls against Minnesota to take a 3-2 series lead. I'm not sure what else Minnesota can do when Jokic is cooking like that so I think it's very unlikely that Minnesota wins another game in this series although they may able to win game 6 since it is in Minnesota but Denver seems to have figured them out and there's nothing they can do about it.
Playoff record: 24-24 -2.59 Units
Playoff record: 24-24 -2.59 Units
5/15/24
Dallas/OKC u212.5 -105 1.05u to win 1u
Just one play for me on the card tonight since the Boston line is way too wide to get involved with and I don't want to play the prop market in that game since I see a blowout happening and Boston unders mostly hitting because they won't need most of their main guys to play much to finish off the Cavs. Anyway tonight I like the under in the Dallas/OKC game because of the way the series has played out. Luka looks banged up out there and because of that the pace has been slowed down considerably by the Mavs and that has contributed to this series mainly staying under. I think tonight is another game that features a slow pace and we see another low scoring game en route to an under.
Dallas/OKC u212.5 -105 1.05u to win 1u
Just one play for me on the card tonight since the Boston line is way too wide to get involved with and I don't want to play the prop market in that game since I see a blowout happening and Boston unders mostly hitting because they won't need most of their main guys to play much to finish off the Cavs. Anyway tonight I like the under in the Dallas/OKC game because of the way the series has played out. Luka looks banged up out there and because of that the pace has been slowed down considerably by the Mavs and that has contributed to this series mainly staying under. I think tonight is another game that features a slow pace and we see another low scoring game en route to an under.
1-0 tonight as Dallas cruises and mostly plays at their pace and the game comes in well under 212.5. Tomorrow we get a critical game 6 between Denver and Minnesota so hopefully I can find another winner or two from that game.
Playoff record: 25-24 -1.59 Units
Playoff record: 25-24 -1.59 Units
5/15/24
Denver Nuggets ML +115 1u to win 1.15u
One play for me tonight on the Denver/Minnesota game and it's on the Nuggets ML. Minnesota will play a good game at home but I don't think it'll be enough because Denver has solved their defense and Minnesota has struggled to make any adjustments to stop Jokic. I don't think that they can at this point so I feel like Denver closes this out tonight so I'm taking them at plus money to get it done.
Denver Nuggets ML +115 1u to win 1.15u
One play for me tonight on the Denver/Minnesota game and it's on the Nuggets ML. Minnesota will play a good game at home but I don't think it'll be enough because Denver has solved their defense and Minnesota has struggled to make any adjustments to stop Jokic. I don't think that they can at this point so I feel like Denver closes this out tonight so I'm taking them at plus money to get it done.
0-1 tonight as Denver get embarrassed in game 6. I took a shot and guess what I'm going right back to Denver ML in game 7. Only problem is I won't get plus money this time but I do think Denver wins so I'm going to double down and go down with the ship if they lose.
Playoff record: 25-25 -2.59 Units
Playoff record: 25-25 -2.59 Units
If you really mushed me your powers are pretty powerful making Denver lose by 45 like that. I know you're joking but Denver looked disinterested last night after the first Quarter hole they dug for themselves.
5/17/24
Indiana Pacers 1H -3.5 -103 1.03u to win 1u
One play for me tonight and it's on the Pacers early in their game with the Knicks. I see this game being close so I can see the Knicks covering the full game line and possibly even coming back to win the game. I didn't get there because I think the Pacers in the first half is the best look in this game. I see them coming in energized by the home crowd and jumping out to a big enough halftime lead to cover the first half spread. I didn't lay the full game line here because I absolutely can see the Knicks making this a closer game and much more competitive than game 4 when they laid down for the Pacers who destroyed them.
Indiana Pacers 1H -3.5 -103 1.03u to win 1u
One play for me tonight and it's on the Pacers early in their game with the Knicks. I see this game being close so I can see the Knicks covering the full game line and possibly even coming back to win the game. I didn't get there because I think the Pacers in the first half is the best look in this game. I see them coming in energized by the home crowd and jumping out to a big enough halftime lead to cover the first half spread. I didn't lay the full game line here because I absolutely can see the Knicks making this a closer game and much more competitive than game 4 when they laid down for the Pacers who destroyed them.
1-0 tonight and I'm glad I only played the first half because I really was leaning Knicks in this one but once the Pacers got the lead in the second Quarter they never looked back and they covered the full game as well. Now we get 2 game 7's on Sunday so I'm looking forward to that and to be honest I don't know what to think about the Pacers/Knicks game 7 because it seems the Knicks are in deep trouble if Josh Hart is compromised in any way after getting hurt tonight. He's a valuable member of their team but if he is less than 100% I'm not sure the Knicks can get it done even at home in game 7. We shall see but if I had to make a play right now I'd be on the Pacers. It will definitely be interesting to see what happens when we get to game day.
Playoff record: 26-25 -1.59 Units
Playoff record: 26-25 -1.59 Units
5/18/24
Dallas Mavericks -3.5 -110 1.1u to win 1u
Just one play for me today and it's on the Dallas Mavericks laying 3.5 at home in a close out game against the Thunder. I liked the Mavericks to win this series and I'm not switching here. I think they get it done today at home and really think this is a Mavs or pass spot if you're looking to play this game. In this series every team that won the game has also covered and I don't see that changing because the Mavs have shown they're slightly better than the Thunder who are good but not quite ready to beat an experienced team like this.
Dallas Mavericks -3.5 -110 1.1u to win 1u
Just one play for me today and it's on the Dallas Mavericks laying 3.5 at home in a close out game against the Thunder. I liked the Mavericks to win this series and I'm not switching here. I think they get it done today at home and really think this is a Mavs or pass spot if you're looking to play this game. In this series every team that won the game has also covered and I don't see that changing because the Mavs have shown they're slightly better than the Thunder who are good but not quite ready to beat an experienced team like this.
0-1 night as Dallas gets the win but doesn't cover. This was a great game between two evenly matched teams but I think the better team won because Dallas has experience on their side. OKC will be a problem in the West and it's great to see them competitive again after stock piling so many draft picks. We haven't seen the last of them and it was no fluke they were the number 1 seed in the West but like I mentioned in a previous post I don't think they were ready to beat a team the caliber of Dallas at this stage of their process.
Playoff record: 26-26 -2.69 Units
Playoff record: 26-26 -2.69 Units
5/19/24
Indiana Pacers +3 -110 1.1u to 1u
Indiana Pacers ML +130 0.5u to win 0.65u
Denver Nuggets 1H -2 -113 1.13u to win 1u
I have three plays today on both game 7's. I took Indiana +3 and sprinkled on the ML. It's bucking the trend here for me that game 7 is going to go to both home teams but I have good reason for it. Indiana is healthier and I think that's going to be a factor in this game as it'll be close imo so thats my reasoning for taking the points today. New York should get back OG Anunoby and possibly Josh Hart will play as well but both those guys are probably less than 100%. Also I think Jalen Brunson has struggled in this series because he's been worn out by Thibs by playing so many minutes. The Pacers have young legs and I think guys like Pascal Siakem and Tyrese Haliburton will step up today and lead them to a huge victory on the road.
In the nightcap I'm on Denver early and the reason I'm not playing this full game is because I think we get a pretty tight game and one that could go either way. I really expect Denver to win but more importantly I expect them to start out fast and lead at halftime because they were embarrassed with how game 6 played out. They got ran out of the gym and it was never close once Minnesota got the lead. I think Jokic comes out and plays like an MVP today leading Denver to a first half lead, I can see Minnesota keeping this close though so I didn't want to lay 4.5 with Denver but gun to my head I'd probably side with Denver full game because I just expect them to win here and if they do I think they can cover but I wasn't willing to bet that.
Indiana Pacers +3 -110 1.1u to 1u
Indiana Pacers ML +130 0.5u to win 0.65u
Denver Nuggets 1H -2 -113 1.13u to win 1u
I have three plays today on both game 7's. I took Indiana +3 and sprinkled on the ML. It's bucking the trend here for me that game 7 is going to go to both home teams but I have good reason for it. Indiana is healthier and I think that's going to be a factor in this game as it'll be close imo so thats my reasoning for taking the points today. New York should get back OG Anunoby and possibly Josh Hart will play as well but both those guys are probably less than 100%. Also I think Jalen Brunson has struggled in this series because he's been worn out by Thibs by playing so many minutes. The Pacers have young legs and I think guys like Pascal Siakem and Tyrese Haliburton will step up today and lead them to a huge victory on the road.
In the nightcap I'm on Denver early and the reason I'm not playing this full game is because I think we get a pretty tight game and one that could go either way. I really expect Denver to win but more importantly I expect them to start out fast and lead at halftime because they were embarrassed with how game 6 played out. They got ran out of the gym and it was never close once Minnesota got the lead. I think Jokic comes out and plays like an MVP today leading Denver to a first half lead, I can see Minnesota keeping this close though so I didn't want to lay 4.5 with Denver but gun to my head I'd probably side with Denver full game because I just expect them to win here and if they do I think they can cover but I wasn't willing to bet that.
We sweep the board today as Indiana blows out New York and Denver covers the first half spread with some ease after a slow start. The NBA is off tomorrow so I'll be back Tuesday with hopefully another winner.
Playoff record: 29-26 -0.04 Units
Playoff record: 29-26 -0.04 Units
The way this Denver game is going I'm glad I got in and got out with my bet on Denver in this game. Minnesota is relentless on D and it's propelled their offense just like it has all year. I'm happy I can just watch this 4th Quarter and be happy no matter who wins even though I'd like to see Jokic vs Doncic in the WCF because those are my two favorite non Warriors or ex Kentucky players in the league.
5/21/24
Boston Celtics 1H -6 -103 1.03u to win 1u
I'm making one play on tonights game and it's on Boston to cover in the first half against the Pacers. The main thing for me tonight is that I expect Boston to jump on Indiana early because they are the well rested team and Indiana just got done playing a grueling 7 game series against New York. I can see Boston jumping out to a comfortable lead at halftime of this game and then Indiana mounting a spirited comeback in the second half and covering the full game double digit spread. I didn't take Indiana though because Boston should win this game and I think with the rest advantage favoring them it's possible that this game is a blowout and Boston just runs away with it. I'd rather trust Boston in the first half though because when they're at home in game 1 so far in the playoffs they've been jumping on teams early and I don't see that changing here.
Boston Celtics 1H -6 -103 1.03u to win 1u
I'm making one play on tonights game and it's on Boston to cover in the first half against the Pacers. The main thing for me tonight is that I expect Boston to jump on Indiana early because they are the well rested team and Indiana just got done playing a grueling 7 game series against New York. I can see Boston jumping out to a comfortable lead at halftime of this game and then Indiana mounting a spirited comeback in the second half and covering the full game double digit spread. I didn't take Indiana though because Boston should win this game and I think with the rest advantage favoring them it's possible that this game is a blowout and Boston just runs away with it. I'd rather trust Boston in the first half though because when they're at home in game 1 so far in the playoffs they've been jumping on teams early and I don't see that changing here.
0-1 tonight as the Pacers gave Boston everything they could handle and probably should have won the game. This is going to be a tougher series than anticipated for Boston I think but their talent and depth should win out. Indiana is a scrappy team and because they have an elite offense I think they can take a couple of games in this series.
Playoff record: 29-27 -1.07 Units
Playoff record: 29-27 -1.07 Units
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