Timothy Bradley Jr.'s take: Munguia has a path to beat Canelo, but can he get there?
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Cinco de Mayo celebrates the Mexican Army's victory over the French Empire at the Battle of Puebla on May 5, 1862. The holiday honors Mexican heritage and has become a Mexican-American cultural celebration. The day honors the bravery and resilience of the Mexican people. Boxing has become a significant part of Cinco de Mayo weekend, with many legendary boxers showcasing their skills.
On May 4, the boxing world will witness another showdown between legendary experience and mature youth. Mexican boxing legend and undisputed super middleweight champion
Canelo Alvarez will tangle with undefeated former junior middleweight champion
Jaime Munguia in a must-see dance of fists that signifies more than just an undisputed championship match. It is also a battle for respect and a potential passing of the torch. At 33, Canelo is not old, but he has been fighting in the pro ranks for almost 19 years and has 64 fights on his record. The admirable Father Time marches on, undefeated in this sport.
The fight will impact the divisional rankings, as a win for Munguia could push him into the No. 1 position at 168 pounds. The outcome will also clarify the fighters' positions in their careers. Remember, fans have been calling for a fight between Alvarez and WBC interim champ David Benavidez, a highly skilled young fighter known as "The Mexican Monster." If Alvarez dominates Munguia, it will clarify his position and maybe determine his future plans. However, if he struggles, it might suggest a different narrative altogether, crushing the dreams of boxing fans worldwide.
Alvarez finds himself in a reflective time warp of fate as he prepares to face a young, hungry fighter in the 27-year-old Munguia. Alvarez will enter a scenario reminiscent of when, as a 23-year-old, he faced the seasoned veteran. He fought the No. 1 pound-for-pound boxer at the time, Floyd "Money" Mayweather, in a battle where
experience overshadowed youth. Alvarez now embodies the seasoned champion and Munguia is cast in the role once played by Alvarez.
A look at their punch input
In his prime, Alvarez's punch output hovered around 500-600 per 12-round fight, with 526 punches thrown in his meeting with Mayweather. As time has passed, there's been a drop-off in his punch count. He threw 459 punches against John Ryder, 100 fewer against Jermell Charlo and 361 in his fight with Caleb Plant.
In his loss to Dmitry Bivol two years ago, Alvarez unleashed 495 punches but he was outdone by Bivol's impressive overall punch count of 710 strikes, according to CompuBox.
Alvarez vs. Munguia Punch Stats Comparison
ā¢31.2% of Canelo's landed punches are body shots. 30.9% for Munguia (CompuBox division avg.: 29.5%)
ā¢Canelo opponents land 11.4 punches per round and 6.5 power punches per round (division avg.: 14.8/10.6). They land 30.1% of their power punches. Munguia opponents land 29.8% of their power punches. (Gabriel Rosado landed 42% of his power shots vs. Munguia.)
ā¢Munguia lands 3.8 jabs per round (Canelo 4.1)
ā¢Munguia lands 41.2% of his power punches (16.3 per round, division avg.: 10.6)
ā¢Rounds 11 and 12 comparisons: Canelo lands 18 of 51 punches, with 53 thrown in Round 12 his highest average in any round. Munguia's high was 112 punches thrown vs. Sergiy Derevyanchenko in Round 12, and he threw 70 or more punches in four different rounds.
| PUNCHES | CANELO (LAST 23 FIGHTS) | MUNGUIA (LAST 15 FIGHTS) | DIV. AVG. |
|---|
| Total avg. thrown per round | 40.8 | 63 | 51.2 |
| Total avg. landed per round | 14.4 | 20.1 | 14.8 |
| Percentage | 35.3% | 31.9% | 28.9% |
| Body landed ratio | 31.2% | 30.9% | N/A |
| Jabs avg. thrown per round | 18.2 | 23.4 | 22.3 |
| Jabs avg. landed per round | 4.1 | 3.8 | 4.3 |
| Percentage | 22.5% | 16.2% | 19.3% |
| Power avg. thrown per round | 22.5 | 39.6 | 28.9 |
| Power avg. landed per round | 10.3 | 16.3 | 10.6 |
| Percentage | 45.8% | 41.2% | 36.7% |
| -- Courtesy of CompuBox | | | |
Alvarez, whose rate of punches thrown per round is a low 40.8, now faces Munguia, a fighter renowned for his fearless mindset, lethal punching power and a high-volume approach that typically sees him throwing 600 to 800 punches per fight (63 punches per rounds in his last 15 fights).
Munguia's performance against Sergiy Derevyanchenko back in June, where he threw close to 800 punches, and a more measured but still scintillating outing of 468 punches against Ryder in nine rounds in January serve as a testament to his aggressive combination style and further his threat against the undisputed champion.
Munguia's high-octane offense could exploit Alvarez's offensive inconsistencies, allowing the challenger to accumulate points and possibly dominate early and later rounds. Alvarez has shown signs of fatigue in the latter stages of fights. This vulnerability might partly stem from his undeniable conviction to land power punches, which can consume a lot of his energy, and partially from the toll from his long, illustrious career.
Canelo's path to victory
Alvarez's masterful counterpunching could capitalize on the openings created by Munguia's aggressive style. With his exceptional timing, Alvarez can punch between Munguia's punches and command the midrange, where he excels in landing his signature lead left hooks and devastating right hooks to the target areas. Alvarez's technique, infused by his longtime trainer Eddie Reynoso, effectively neutralizes his opponents' jab and imposes momentary paralysis, making them gun-shy.
Munguia has advantages in height (6 feet) and reach (72 inches), but Alvarez has overcome such challenges throughout his career with repetitive upper body movement and a tight high guard. Munguia's jab is more potent than Canelo's and could be a crucial component in managing the range at which the fight will be fought. Nevertheless, Alvarez's ability to close the gap and engage at arm's length could be a game-changer in landing his power shots.
Alvarez should look to temper the fight's rhythm by targeting Munguia's body early on. With disciplined bodywork, Alvarez could set a manageable pace that might get Munguia to slow down in the second half of the fight. I see several strategic plans, but I will give Canelo one that he can use against Munguia: Seasoned professionals going against young foes, whether in sparring or actual fights, sometimes try to draw them into the later rounds, effectively sapping their vigor. Youths have a burning desire to showcase their offensive prowess against seasoned opponents and often launch a furious pace that can appear overwhelming at first. However, by the fourth or fifth round, they're typically gasping for air, frantically searching for a second wind.
Simultaneously, the veteran fighter, Alvarez in this case, would place calculated shots that systematically break down the younger opponent. As fatigue sets in from both the physical exertion and the cerebral strain of the tactical chess match that unfolds in the ring, the less seasoned fighter, Munguia, might start to falter, making mistakes. This allows the more experienced fighter to capitalize on these errors, increasing the likelihood of turning a highly competitive contest into a one-sided affair.
For Alvarez to execute this plan successfully, he must utilize his footwork to create space, encouraging Munguia to initiate an offensive attack. This will allow Alvarez to unleash a counterattack with sharp, precise and surgical accuracy to diminish Munguia's stamina gradually. By drawing Munguia into this trap, Alvarez could silently deplete his opponent's energy, setting the stage for a dominant finish.
Can Munguia win? There's a way
Munguia needs to earn Alvarez's respect from the outset. He must assert himself early in the match by establishing his jab and effectively keeping Alvarez at bay. Given Alvarez's love for power punches in the midrange, Munguia must use his height and reach advantages to control distance. In simpler terms, Munguia must keep Alvarez occupied defensively, forcing him into a less effective high guard and disrupting his rhythm.
Delivering combinations will be critical for Munguia to implement this strategy and dictate the fight's pace, preventing Alvarez from building momentum. Alvarez's signature left hook relies on weight transfer onto his lead foot for power, leaving him momentarily glitched afterward. Munguia should capitalize on these moments, launching his own attacks and exploiting Alvarez's temporary vulnerability.
As I mentioned, Alvarez has shown signs of fatigue in later rounds, elevating the importance of Munguia's fearless approach in the second half. Taking calculated risks and maintaining a vibrant offense can create opportunities for Munguia to seize control. Munguia's one-two combination looks excellent on film, with straight punches that reach the target quickly and can be particularly effective against Canelo's high guard. By prioritizing direct, linear offense, Munguia can disrupt Alvarez's rhythm and counter his favored hooks with precision and speed.
A boxer's abilities in defense are often the cornerstone to success in the ring. Making someone miss is as crucial as punching power. Munguia perfectly illustrates the Mexican warrior spirit, channeling the legacy of the legends before him with his devastating left hook to the liver and his fearless combination punching. It's an all-action style. He is the type of fighter willing to take three to give one.
Munguia's youth and iron chin can shift the psychological dynamics of the fight, much like Bivol's tight defense and range control helped defeat Alvarez. Should Munguia withstand Alvarez's heavy assaults of left hooks and looping rights, his confidence could grow, enabling him to push the fight's pace and reinforcing his youthful resiliency, potentially outworking the champion. However, maintaining a fast fight pace and pressuring Alvarez, which can benefit Munguia, carries risks. The battle between these two Mexican warriors promises to be a gripping exchange of blows and can quickly turn into a battle of who can give more while receiving less.
How Canelo can exploit Munguia's flaws
Munguia's tactical approach is not without flaws. He struggles to recognize the proper range to punch from, appearing too close upon delivery of shots, smothering his work while simultaneously being in range to be hit with a counterattack.
These lapses in judgment can turn a fighter's strengths into liabilities, especially when faced with adversaries who can exploit such oversights with gauged precision. Despite the effectiveness of Munguia's high-volume approach against a fighter like Alvarez, it equally presents a risk, as volume might offer gaps for lethal counterattacks. A recurring offensive mistake in Munguia's technique is his negligent habit of not repositioning his lead hand after throwing a punch. Additionally, during moments of reset or disengagement, he tends to bounce in place momentarily, in proximity of his opponent. If Alvarez capitalizes on these instances, it could befuddle Munguia's rhythm, effectively stifling his offensive output while he is unprepared to attack with unsettled feet.
Munguia thrives on constant physical engagement, whether through punching or close-quarters grappling. His need to maintain contact can sometimes be his downfall, as he becomes disoriented without it. Fighters who rely heavily on sustained action can become apprehensive when given too much space. They usually fall into two silent killers: overcommitting and overthinking. By isolating a pressure fighter like Munguia, forcing him to second-guess his tactical approach, an opponent can effectively neutralize their offense, creating opportunities for initiated offense and a landslide of countermoves.
X factor: Ring smarts
In past analyses I have frequently discussed Alvarez's tendencies, flaws and habits, from his usage of the high guard and the vulnerabilities it presents to his love for power punching that defines his style. I have scrutinized his footwork intricacies designed to unleash his lethal left hooks. However, I have overlooked the No. 1 ingredient of any elite athlete: intelligence. In the boxing ring, IQ is what separates fighters. Ultimately, the most astute fighter will likely be victorious.
While attributes like effort, stamina, strength, speed and power are all valuable traits, it is the strategic application of these skills that determine their effectiveness in the short span of 36 minutes or less in the ring. Munguia projects youth, energy and courage, and may embody fearlessness, but even the most fearless warriors can fall short when faced with a superior cerebral opponent.
Who wins?
I envision a display of Alvarez's greatness, a spectacle unseen in years. Munguia's style makes for an extraordinary fan-friendly battle. However, it's tailor-made for Alvarez, as he will orchestrate a knockout victory over Munguia. The younger contender will likely give an excess of respect, creating an opening for Alvarez to land a devastating blow within the first 10 rounds. It is in this battle of minds, grit, skills and Mexican blood that Alvarez's true mastery will shine brightly.
