NCAAB Prop Pick: Tyger Campbell Under 4.5 Assists (+105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The Arizona State Sun Devils have won four of their last five games. After a huge road win against Arizona, the Sun Devils will look to create more chaos with a win over UCLA. Oddsmakers have UCLA as a significant favorite, but we still might get a close game. Here are a few player props to consider for tonight’s Pac-12 matchup.
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Picks Summary
- DJ Horne Under 11.5 Points (-130)
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. Over 8.5 Rebounds (-120)
- Tyger Campbell Under 4.5 Assists (+105)
Arizona State Sun Devils vs. UCLA Bruins
Thursday, March 02, 2023 – 09:00 PM EST at Pauley Pavilion
DJ Horne (Arizona State)
Under 11.5 Points
- Horne is averaging 11.8 points per game but shooting 35.4% from the field this season.
- He only has three made foul shots in his last four games. He is averaging less than a free throw made per game.
- He has an offensive rating of 97.7, which isn’t even top-five on the Sun Devils this season.
- Horne is also the third most used player on the Sun Devils.
NCAAB Prop Pick: DJ Horne Under 11.5 Points (-130) at BetOnline
Jaime Jaquez Jr. (UCLA)
Over 8.5 Rebounds
- Jaquez averages eight rebounds per game this season.
- He’s added at least ten rebounds in eight games this season.
- Jaquez ranks 225th in defensive rebounding with a 20% defensive rebounding percentage.
- He ranks 306th in offensive rebounding with a 9.2% offensive rebounding percentage.
- Arizona State allows nearly 31% of offensive rebounds this season.
NCAAB Prop Pick: Jaime Jaquez Jr. Over 8.5 Rebounds (-120) at BetOnline
Tyger Campbell (UCLA)
Under 4.5 Assists
- Campbell averages just 4.7 assists per game this season.
- He only had three assists in his last game against Colorado, a low-scoring game.
- I’ve predicted tonight’s game to go Under the total. Less total points in this game.
- He’s had under five assists in three of his last five games.
- Arizona State’s defense ranks high in many categories.
NCAAB Prop Pick: Tyger Campbell Under 4.5 Assists (+105) at BetOnline
Matchup Analysis
Will Arizona State Shock the World Again?
The Arizona State Sun Devils have won four of their last five games, including a road win against the Arizona Wildcats. That was a shocker. Now, the Sun Devils will stay on the road to take on a top-tier UCLA team.
Arizona State has shot just 31.6% from deep and 49.1% from inside the arc. The offense has also hit just 69.5% of foul shots this season. The Sun Devils have been able to limit turnovers reasonably and earned 29.3% of offensive rebounds. However, Arizona State won’t get to the foul line at a high rate.
On the other hand, UCLA’s defense is rated as one of the best in the nation. The Bruins have held teams to 30.7% from downtown and 46.9% from inside the arc. UCLA is also earning 24.3% of turnovers.
Arizona State is typically careful with the ball, but they’ll need to be even more aware in tonight’s game against an outstanding UCLA defense that can cause turnovers left and right.
Will UCLA Keep Momentum Before Next Game Against Arizona?
The UCLA Bruins are already the Pac-12 Regular Season Champions. UCLA is 25-4 on the season and 16-2 in conference play. The Bruins already defeated the Sun Devils, 74-62 on the road. Now, they’ll be home, which figures to be a more leisurely setting.
UCLA has shot 35.4% from downtown and 50.9% from inside the arc this season. The Bruins aren’t terrific at the foul line but still shooting over 70% from the charity stripe. Like Arizona State, the Bruins have limited turnovers at a high rate. The most significant difference is in the glass.
The Bruins have earned 34.1% of offensive rebounds this season. Meanwhile, the Sun Devils have allowed teams to grab nearly 31% of offensive rebounds. You can expect UCLA to get more second chances and possessions from their offensive rebounding. However, the Bruins aren’t getting to the foul line at an excellent rate. That could change slightly against Arizona State, but probably not significantly.
The Sun Devils are playing very well defensively. Arizona State has held teams to 33.7% from deep and 43% from inside the arc. That percentage inside the arc is a top-five number in college basketball. That’s significant because UCLA rarely takes threes. They’ve scored just 25.3% of points from downtown. Most points for the Bruins are coming inside the arc, but Arizona State’s defense is excellent around the paint.
The Verdict
UCLA will likely escape with a win thanks to its rebounding. However, don’t be surprised if this is a lower-scoring game with great defense.
UCLA is KenPom’s second-best defense in the nation. Arizona State isn’t far behind at 32nd in the country. Plus, the Sun Devils aren’t always the most consistent offense this year, despite moving faster than the average.
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