Yankees vs. Guardians ALCS Game 5 Best Bet: Cleveland Looks to Stay Alive

New York’s Starter Tonight

Carlos Rodon starts for the Yankees tonight. Rodon pitched in Game 1 of this series and lasted six innings.

It is tempting to like Rodon tonight because he pitched solidly in Game 1. But it happens so often that a pitcher will face the same team twice in a row and struggle in one of those two games. It is difficult for a starter to thrive twice in a row against the same lineup, because that lineup will be more familiar with and more prepared for that pitcher’s repertoire.

New York’s Luke Weaver, even though he is just a reliever who pitches fewer innings at a time, provides a great example. His first outing in this series was great: he went 1.2 innings and allowed zero runs. But then Cleveland was ready for him. In Weaver’s last 2.1 innings, he has allowed a combined total of three earned runs.

Cleveland’s lineup will try to make adjustments tonight, relative to what it did in Game 1 against Rodon, in order to produce a stronger output. In order to assess the likelihood that the Guardians succeed in making these adjustments, we should consider the matchup.

Cleveland Loves Facing Lefties

Rodon is a left-handed pitcher, which is great news for Cleveland’s lineup.

Whereas the Guardians slug .383 against right-handed pitchers, they slug .427 against left-handed ones.

Cleveland Against Rodon’s Pitches

Rodon throws a fastball, slider, changeup, curveball and cutter.

Cleveland matches up well against him because it ranks fifth with a .436 slugging rate against his pitches from lefties.

Key Batters for Cleveland

In its effort against Rodon, look out for the likes of Cleveland shortstop Brayan Rocchio. While Guardians batters who normally bat toward the top of the order command respect, guys like the consistent David Fry and sizzling Jose Ramirez, Rocchio has exhibited fantastic form during this postseason. So far, he is batting .355 and slugging .516. Two of his multi-hit games came against the Yankees.

Rocchio is already 1-for-2 with a home run in his career facing Rodon.

New York’s Bullpen

The current low quality of New York’s bullpen makes it a terrible favorite tonight, especially in view of Rodon’s negative outlook.

Manager Aaron Boone is running out of relievers to challenge Cleveland with. Last night, for example, he had to rely on a lesser reliever like Mark Leiter Jr., whose ERA in the regular season was nearly 5.00.

While Boone would rather not have to rely on such a reliever, he understands that Cleveland’s batters have gained too much familiarity with New York’s other relievers.

In addition to Weaver, Clay Holmes for example, has become unplayable. Even worse than Weaver, Holmes has allowed a combined total of three earned runs in his last inning of work against the Yanks.

Tommy Kahnle got the save for New York last night, but he very nearly blew the game because he is only throwing changeups and batters were close to hitting one of those changeups for a home run. It is easier to hit a pitcher when you know what pitch he will throw and when he shows you that one pitch again and again.

Cleveland’s Starter Today

Tanner Bibee starts for the Guardians today. Bibee has looked completely different in his postseason starts depending on where he pitches.

On the road, he has been bad. At home, however, he threw 4.2 shutout innings against Detroit.

He will be glad to pitch in front of the Guardians faithful tonight.

Bibee’s Arsenal

Because Bibee has only thrown 39 pitches in this series, Yankee batters have not seen much of his stuff yet.

In descending order of frequency, Bibee primarily throws five pitches: four-seam fastball, cutter, changeup, curveball, and slider. These pitches combine for 99.7 percent of his arsenal.

As his regular season starts against the Padres and Orioles show, he is capable of locking down lineups that do the absolute best job of hitting his pitches from righties.

Cleveland’s Bullpen

Cleveland has plenty of options to follow Bibee with.

Ben Lively, for example, was a starting pitcher in the regular season who managed a 3.81 ERA. In this series so far, he’s thrown 1.1 shutout innings. As the team with the best bullpen, as measured by ERA, the Guardians can count on others.

But I like the first-half Guardians play because closer Emmanuel Clase has been struggling for them, and he is someone who comes in late in games. His stuff is amazing, as evident when he rediscovered his high velocity in his outing last night. He should have located more of his pitches on the inside of batters in order to keep opposing batters from extending.

In the summer, he did this more frequently, so he can certainly do it again and improve. But it would still feel safer to rely on guys who continue to be effective and whose appearance tonight would likely precede Clase’s.

Such guys include Eli Morgan, who has allowed zero earned runs in 2.1 innings in this series, and Pedro Avila, who has thrown four shutout innings thus far.

MLB Pick: Guardians First-Half ML (-105) at BetOnline 

Guardians First-Half ML (-105)

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