UFC Shanghai Preliminary Card Predictions & Betting Analysis
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David Manyun
- August 21, 2025
The UFC travels to Shanghai, China, this weekend, and apart from setting our alarm clocks for the early hours of the morning (American time), I’ve taken a deep dive into this fight night—looking at the latest betting odds from top sportsbooks—to help with all your UFC betting needs.
The time for talk is over: Let’s jump right into my most noteworthy analysis and best bets for the UFC Shanghai preliminary card bouts.
UFC Shanghai Event Information
- Date & Time: Saturday, August 23, 2025 – 03:00 AM EDT
- Location: Mercedes-Benz Arena, Shanghai, China
- Scheduled Fights: 12
- Main Event: Johnny Walker vs. Zhang Mingyang (UFC Light Heavyweight Title Bout)
Lone’er Kavanagh vs. Charles Johnson
UFC Shanghai Flyweight Preliminary Bout
Kavanagh-Johnson Fight Breakdown
Lone’er Kavanagh
I love a young, up-and-coming, undefeated prospect as much as the next man. Still, the UFC really has had an issue with forcing their prospects into difficult situations of late, and that’s what I envision here when Lone’er Kavanagh tests his skill sets versus a savvy veteran in Charles Johnson.
- Kavanagh Pro Record: 9-0
- Kavanagh KO/TKO Wins: 4
- Kavanagh Submission Wins: 1
Kavanagh is so fun to watch, and boy, this British representative can crack the power shots out when he wants to! Does it remind you of someone? Maybe the current flyweight No.1 contender, Joshua Van?
Charles Johnson
Well, guess what, ‘Inner G,’ Charles Johnson, had no issue when putting the young Van out cold, and I worry that another prospect-killing moment could be ahead of us here!
- Johnson Pro Record: 17-7
- Johnson KO/TKO Wins: 6
- Johnson Submission Wins: 4
Kavanagh vs. Johnson Analysis
Johnson’s 6-5 UFC record isn’t the prettiest, but when you realise that he’s won four of his last five appearances, including a valiant effort in the third round of his most recent bout and loss to Ramazan Temirov, you know he’s fighting with a chip on his shoulder.
Kavanagh isn’t going to show Johnson he hasn’t seen before, and when it comes to UFC experience, we know how important it is with the plethora of unbeaten fighters who’ve lost their 0’s in 2025. Not to mention, look at Tim Elliot last week, he proved that experience at this level is crucial and crushed one of the biggest betting favorites at UFC 319.
I like Kavanagh at Bovada, and he’s undoubtedly the future of the flyweight division. However, Johnson has thrived as an underdog in 3 of his previous 4 wins, including Azat Maksum (unbeaten before losing to Johnson), Jake Hadley (10-1 record before losing to Johnson), and Van (unbeaten before losing to Johnson).
Power and pressure are what saw Temirov snap Johnson’s four-fight win streak last time out, but Kavanagh isn’t that type of fighter. He’s going to look to style it on the feet, and with a complete skill set such as Johnson’s, I can’t help but believe he’s live to upset yet another prospect.
UFC Shanghai Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds have placed Johnson as a +175 underdog [1u returns 1.75u profit], but the reality is that with his experience, this line should be closer to a pick’em. Yes, Kavanagh has the talent to win this fight, but when it comes to long-term sports betting, we play the number, not the fighter!
Long Xiao vs. SuYoung You
UFC Shanghai Bantamweight Preliminary Bout
Xiao-You Fight Breakdown
Long Xiao
China’s Long Xiao bounced back from his debut defeat with a beautiful right hook to stop Quang Le last time out, but the Road to UFC standout hasn’t done enough to prove his worth at 135lbs just yet.
- Xiao Pro Record: 27-9
- Xiao KO/TKO Wins: 5
- Xiao Submission Wins: 9
SuYoung You
He’ll fight SuYoung You in Shanhai this weekend, and although the home advantage will be present, we haven’t seen him overcome a pressure wrestler like this in the octagon, and this could easily evolve into a crowd-upsetting result.
- You Pro Record: 15-3
- You KO/TKO Wins: 3
- You Submission Wins: 5
Xiao vs. You: Fight Tape Analysis
We have the classic striker (Xiao) versus wrestler (You) matchup, and strictly by default, you often want to side with the latter holding an advantage. Defending strikes is a lot easier than fending off constant takedowns, and with a clear blueprint to success here, how can You not attack the singles, or doubles from the opening bell without believing he’ll eventually find success?
Yes, Xiao wins the striking battle, and You wins the wrestling, so ultimately, it’ll depend on which fighter can dictate where the fight takes place. With that said, watching You dominate AJ Cunningham with his wrestling last time out gives me confidence that he can achieve the same here. It might not be pretty for some, but it’ll get the job done and prevent Xiao from having an opportunity to fight his fight.
UFC Fight Night Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds have positioned You as a slight favorite [1.2u returns 1u profit] at BetOnline, and I’m not surprised given his five-fight unbeaten streak and clear wrestling advantage. On that note, there’s no need to overthink this one; back the Korean grappler to cause an upset on rival territory.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
