Some Thursday Night Football games are bigger than others, and the start to Week 14 is a big one in the NFC if the Dallas Cowboys (6-5-1) and Detroit Lions (7-5) are serious about making the postseason.
Neither would qualify today, which is why the loser would be in real trouble with a 6th loss in a crowded conference. So let’s break down this NFC matchup to find our best Thursday night football bets.
Best Bets for Dallas Cowboys vs. Detroit Lions
Tonight’s NFL picks come for a game between teams who may not like each other much after a couple of heated meetings.
The Lions felt they were hosed on a 2-point conversion penalty in 2023, then they embarrassed the Cowboys with trick plays in a 47-9 rout last year in the game where Aidan Hutchinson suffered a season-ending injury.
With both teams coming off different Thanksgiving outcomes, another Detroit injury is the big story after wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown left the 1st quarter of the loss against Green Bay with an ankle injury.
The Cowboys are 3-0 since the bye week, fairly healthy, and playing complementary football for each other ever since the tragic loss of teammate Marshawn Kneeland. The trade for Quinnen Williams has helped the defensive line, and Dak Prescott leads all quarterbacks in QBR.
Dallas is 0-4 on the road against winning teams this year, so this is a huge test. But the Lions have been alternating wins and losses since Week 5. That says a win this week, but they must start playing better after nearly losing to the Giants in between losses to the Eagles and Packers.
Thursday Night Odds (Lions -3)
The Lions opened as a 6-point home favorite, but between Dallas’ emotional win over the Chiefs and the St. Brown injury, the Lions are just a 3-point favorite now.
But the Lions are well known for bouncing back under coach Dan Campbell, who has won 14 straight games following a loss. However, the Lions are 13-1 ATS in those games after failing to cover against the Giants a couple of weeks ago in an overtime nail-biter.
The total for this matchup has moved up a few points to 54 points, signifying the high-scoring nature of both teams and the injuries in the Detroit secondary that will have to deal with George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb. The Cowboys need to slow down running back Jahmyr Gibbs as the Lions may need to run more without St. Brown available.
Thursday Night Picks (Cowboys +3)
For our best Thursday night prediction, we’re backing the Cowboys for a team of destiny run as a 3-point road dog that hasn’t lost in a month.
We’re taking the St. Brown injury very seriously as he is unlikely to play, and Dallas should be able to prepare better for an offense that is also missing tight end Sam LaPorta.
Dak Prescott is playing very good football right now, and he has a pair of No. 1 wideouts along with a very good tight end in Jake Ferguson, who could exploit a Detroit secondary that is missing many key players.
Jared Goff is usually good indoors, but with the rejuvenated Dallas pass rush led by Williams and Jadeveon Clowney, you can always count on Goff to put the ball in harm’s way at least once or twice. Without his security blankets in St. Brown and LaPorta, this is a great spot for Dallas to capitalize and keep their season going for the playoff push and your NFL picks.
Expert Pick: Cowboys +3 (-110) at Bovada
Cowboys’ CeeDee Lamb (Over 79.5 Receiving Yards)
In looking at NFL player props in this game, we like the No. 1 wideout who is still his quarterback’s favorite target.
While George Pickens has been great lately, he still doesn’t run as varied a route tree as CeeDee Lamb, who torched Detroit 2 years ago with 227 receiving yards (career high) on 13 catches. He still had 89 yards against Detroit a year ago.
In the wounded state the Detroit secondary is in, this needs to be a game where Prescott, who leads in the NFL in passing yards per game, needs to be on the ball and get it to his best wideout all over the field.
That’s why our favorite prop is for CeeDee Lamb to have over 79.5 receiving yards, a line he’s hit in 5-of-8 games he stayed healthy for this season.
Expert Pick: CeeDee Lamb Over 79.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada
Lions’ Jared Goff (Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted)
We’re building a game script here with the Cowboys covering on the road, CeeDee Lamb and Dak Prescott playing well, and now it’s up to the Dallas defense to make its mark in an upset win.
That usually would involve forcing Jared Goff into an interception, something he’s only done 5 times this year, as this has been one of his lowest interception rates.
However, Goff was intercepted against the Eagles and Giants in the game right before Thanksgiving, where he avoided any of those mistakes against Green Bay. But can he do it again in a big game without his top targets like St. Brown and LaPorta?
The Dallas defense only has 5 picks all year, but they have some ball-hawks in that secondary who might be due for a pick. Let’s go with them to get the job done with plus odds on the prop.
Expert Pick: Jared Goff Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted (+125) at Bovada
What We’ve Covered and Next Steps
For your Thursday Night Football bets, we’re all in on the underdog Cowboys getting the job done in Detroit.
We like the Cowboys to cover the 3-point spread, CeeDee Lamb to go over 79.5 receiving yards, and for that maligned Dallas defense to step up and intercept Jared Goff at least once.
Timing is everything in sports betting. Injuries like the St. Brown one can have a big impact on betting lines, so it’s always good practice to keep up on the line movement for a game before you make your final Thursday night football picks.
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
