The NFL may be onto something with these division games on Thursday nights producing upsets. To kick off Week 7, we’ll see the Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1) taking on a familiar foe in Joe Flacco, who is now with the Cincinnati Bengals (2-4), losers of 4 straight since Joe Burrow (turf toe) was knocked out in Week 2.
Underdogs are 6-1 SU in the last 7 prime-time games this NFL season. Let’s look at our favorite Thursday night football bets, including top football bets for player props, from top-rated sportsbooks for this AFC North battle.
Best Bets for Bengals vs. Steelers
It’s one of those games the Steelers absolutely should win, but if you’ve followed coach Mike Tomlin’s career for any amount of time, you know this is a prime spot for him to lose in upset fashion.
The total opened at 46.5 points but has been trending down to 43.5 points as this is Thursday night in the AFC North with 2 of the oldest quarterbacks in NFL history going at it on short rest. Let’s look at the best bets for Thursday.
Thursday Night Football Odds
The Steelers opened as a 4.5-point road favorite and it has gone up to 5.5 points as we get closer to kickoff. Pittsburgh is only +12 in scoring differential this season, but it did win 23-9 against the Browns on Sunday. The Bengals have the worst scoring differential (-80) in the NFL at the moment.
The total opened at 46.5 points but has been trending down to 43.5 points as this is Thursday night in the AFC North with 2 of the oldest quarterbacks in NFL history going at it on short rest.
Thursday Night Picks: Bengals +5.5
It’s one of those games the Steelers absolutely should win, but if you’ve followed coach Mike Tomlin’s career for any amount of time, you know this is a prime spot for him to lose in upset fashion.
- Tomlin is 8-11-1 ATS and 9-11 SU on Thursday nights since 2007.
- Tomlin is 2-7 ATS and 2-7 SU on Thursday nights against division rivals.
- Tomlin is 0-6 SU on Thursday nights in road games against division rivals.
- Tomlins is 3-9 ATS and 5-6-1 SU in his last 12 games as a favorite of at least 5 points.
Tomlin has not been a road favorite of at least 5 points since 2020. He was a 14.5-point favorite in Cincinnati and lost 27-17 on a Monday night. To be fair, Tomlin is 15-4 SU and 13-6 ATS in Cincinnati in his career, as the Steelers have dominated this rivalry on the road, including a cover in 3 straight seasons.
But let’s not discount Joe Flacco’s experience against Tomlin’s defense with 25 career games under his belt. He came off the bench last year in Indianapolis and led the Colts to a 27-24 win over the Steelers. He hasn’t started against Pittsburgh since 2018, but with those talented wide receivers at his disposal, this game has Tomlin trap game written all over it. We’re taking the Bengals to cover.
Expert Pick: Bengals +5.5 (-115) at Bovada
Thursday Night Football Prop Bets
Cincinnati Bengals’ Joe Flacco: Over 36.5 Pass Attempts
You have to appreciate a 40-year-old Joe Flacco and his philosophy on why he keeps playing. You only get one shot at playing in the NFL, so he’s going to make the most of it while he still can.
He just got traded to the Bengals from Cleveland last Tuesday, and it probably helped that he already faced Green Bay earlier this season. He was able to start Sunday, and while things started poorly, Flacco came through with a couple of touchdown passes and actually had a respectable debut for the Bengals.
Most importantly, Flacco didn’t throw any interceptions and didn’t take more than 1 sack – things he struggled with in every game with Cleveland. Doing that behind this battered Cincinnati line was impressive, and Flacco will have to play a clean game again to give the Bengals a chance here.
But with the Bengals not running the ball well with Chase Brown, this needs to be a game where they attack with the wide receivers. Flacco threw 45 passes last week barely knowing the playbook. He’ll go over 36.5 attempts here as well.
Expert Pick: Joe Flacco Over 36.5 Pass Attempts (-125) at Bovada
Cincinnati Bengals’ Tee Higgins: Over 4.5 Receptions
The Bengals have some tight end injuries as Mike Gesicki is out, putting more pressure on wide receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins to deliver. The Steelers have struggled with some No. 1 wideouts this year like Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Garrett Wilson, but they’ve also given up some huge plays to the likes of Jordan Addison, a No. 2 in Minnesota.
If you think Jalen Ramsey will do his best to limit Ja’Marr Chase, then that combined with the tight end limitation should lead Flacco throwing more balls to Tee Higgins, who already caught 5 balls from him on Sunday in Green Bay.
With better than even odds, we like Higgins to snag at least a handful of catches as the Bengals try to pull off this upset.
Expert Pick: Tee Higgins Over 4.5 Receptions (+115) at Bovada
What We’ve Covered and Next Steps
With the way prime-time games have been going crazy for the underdog in the NFL since Week 5, you can make a Same Game Parlay with our picks of the Bengals covering, Joe Flacco going over in attempts, and Tee Higgins going over 4.5 receptions. Maybe even throw in Jaylen Warren (Steelers) scoring a touchdown.
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
