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Rockies vs. Braves MLB Best Bet: Flash Sale on the Under in Atlanta
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LT Profits
- September 3, 2024
Table of Contents
MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-115) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
We enter Tuesday’s 13-game slate of MLB betting matchups 13-5 in our last 18 plays after a 2-1 Sunday. We return today with three plays from top sportsbooks that we feel hold great betting value at the current MLB odds.
These plays are based mostly on our proprietary model. One of the best bets for Tuesday comes in the Peach State where our model likes a total when the Rockies visit the Braves.
Two days until the NFL season starts—don’t miss out on BMRForum.com’s $20K NFL 2024 Pick’em Pool contest for your chance to win big!
If you’re looking for more MLB value picks:
Colorado Rockies vs. Atlanta Braves
Tuesday, September 03, 2024 – 07:20 PM ET at Truist Park
Chris Sale of the Braves is the current favorite to win the Cy Young Award, and deservedly so. And while his money line price is prohibitive here, we are betting him to key an Under hosting Kyle Freeland and the Rockies.
Best Pitcher in Baseball
After battling injuries for several years, Chris Sale has managed to stay healthy this season, resulting in velocity returning to 95.0 MPH which is its highest point since 2018. Add in his wipeout slider rated 108 on Stuff+ and a lesser used but very effective sinker rated 113, and the uptick in velocity has made him almost unhittable.
Sale enters at an amazing 15-3, leading the Major Leagues in xFIP (2.55), strikeout rate (11.54/9), and WAR (5.6) while ranking second in ERA (2.58) behind Tarik Skubal. And Chris is showing absolutely no signs of slowing down, having allowed two earned runs or less in 16 consecutive starts!
The southpaw should have very few issues against a Rockies’ lineup ranked 28th out of 30 MLB teams in wRC+ against left-handed pitchers at a putrid 78, a figure that drops to 71 away from Colorado.
xFIP Full Run Better Than ERA
Now, fellow southpaw Kyle Freeland comes in at 4-6 with an unsightly 5.51 ERA. But to be fair, his XFIP is more than a full run better at 4.29, which can be considered passable given he pitches his home games in the altitude of Coors Field. He is not a hard thrower at 91.9 MPH, but he is one of the few pitchers that has a knuckle-curve in his repertoire, and it is a great one rated 127 on Stuff+.
Kyle is also in good current form, as he allowed two runs in six innings last time out, and that was in hitter-friendly Colorado. That outing marked the fifth time in his last six starts that Freeland allowed three runs or less, a streak that included limiting these Braves to three runs in Coors.
The Pick
Given that we expect the Rockies to do next to nothing against Sale, we feel that Freeland is more than competent enough in his current form for us to back the Under in this spot.
Predicted Score: Braves 4 – Rockies 1
MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-115) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
