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Guardians vs. Royals MLB Best Bet: Singer To Hit Sweet Notes vs. Bibee
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LT Profits
- September 3, 2024
Table of Contents
MLB Pick: Royals ML (+106) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We are currently on a 13-5 run in our last 18 plays entering Tuesday’s slate of MLB betting matchups after a winning 2-1 Sunday. As usual, we have three more best bets from top sportsbooks for today’s slate that we feel hold great value.
These best bets and current MLB odds are based mostly on our proprietary model. Our model favors a side in Kansas City on Tuesday with the Guardians visiting the Royals.
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If you’re looking for more MLB value picks:
Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals
Tuesday, September 03, 2024 – 07:40 PM ET at Kauffman Stadium
We have Brady Singer of the Royals and Tanner Bibee of the Guardians rated pretty evenly, so we are not convinced that Cleveland should be favored on the road. We are thus backing Kansas City as a small underdog.
Came Into His Own
The Royals have been high on the former first round pick Singer ever since he came up in 2010. But after four frustrating lackluster seasons, he has finally come into his own this year at age 28 while revamping his repertoire. Brady Singer is now primarily a sinker/slider pitcher while throwing his modest 91.6 MPH fastball only 11.9% of the time, with the slider rated 111 on Stuff+. And the improved results speak for themselves.
Brady deserves better than a 9-9 record as his 3.36 ERA ranks 17th in the Major Leagues and his 3.51 xFIP ranks a tad higher, at 15th. His refined pitch mix has led to a notable increase in his strikeout rate to 8.67/9 from 7.50/9 last season, and he has lowered his walk rate to 2.42/9 from 2.76. He is also generating a lot of groundballs at 47.9% and his soft contact rate is a career-high 16.7%.
Is He Much Better?
Now do not get us wrong, as we are also fans of Tanner Bibee as he is 10-6 with a 3.65 ERA and an aligning 3.69 xFIP. But our issue here is we do not think that he should be favored on the road with Singer having the better ERA and xFIP. And it is not as if these teams are separated by much, with the Royals trailing the first-place Guardians by 4.5 games in the AL Central, making this a vital home series for Kansas City.
Tanner has also pitched around an above average hard contact rate of 31.1% that makes his modest home run rate allowed of 0.94/9 seem rather fortunate. He may not be as lucky against a Kansas City offense with a noticeably better wRC+ against right-handers (101) than against left-handers (95).
The Pick
The bottom line here is that these two pitchers and not separated enough for the Guardians to be road favorites, and Kansas City can make Bibee pay for his hard contact rate. We are betting the Royals as small home dogs on Tuesday.
Predicted Score: Royals 4– Guardians 3
MLB Pick: Royals ML (+106) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
