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Red Sox vs. Mets MLB Best Bet: Boston to “Kut” Up Peterson as Underdogs
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LT Profits
- September 3, 2024
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MLB Pick: Red Sox ML (+112) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We are 13-5 in our last 18 plays entering Tuesday’s 13-game card of MLB betting matchups following another winning 2-1 Sunday. We are back today with the three plays we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds available on top sportsbooks.
These value bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, which points to a side in the Big Apple in the Red Sox vs. Mets matchup Tuesday.
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If you’re looking for more MLB value picks:
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Mets
Tuesday, September 03, 2024 – 07:10 PM ET at Citi Field
We think that David Peterson of the Mets has an overachieving ERA, and are therefore backing Kutter Crawford and the Red Sox at an underdog price on Tuesday.
He’s Not This Good
David Peterson enters this contest a remarkable 8-1 with a 2.81 ERA, but his peripherals simply do not support those numbers, and we feel regression is in order. For starters, his xFIP is much worse at 4.41and his gaudy 82.2% strand rate does now seem sustainable for someone who is not a big strikeout guy.
In fact, David has a weak K/BB ratio of 6.82/3.80 per nine innings. That is a far cry from his double-digit strikeout rates the last two seasons, and the huge dip is validated by his swinging strike rate plummeting all the way down to 9.9% from 12.7% last year. He also has a poor soft/hard contact ratio of 10.5% / 30.9%, making the lucky strand rate seem more absurd.
The southpaw is also facing a Boston offense at its best offensive split, as the Red Sox own a wRC+ of 111 against left-handers on the road.
Strikeouts and Soft Contact
Kutter Crawford comes in at a disappointing 8-12 with a 4.12 ERA and 4.51 xFIP. We were rather high on Crawford entering this season, and despite his lackluster frontline numbers, he does have some positive underlying metrics that suggest he deserves a better fate.
He has three pitches rated over 100 on Stuff+ in his fastball (109), slider (109), and cutter (113), and that arsenal has led to a good strikeout rate of 8.19/9. Furthermore, K-Rate can be even better given his high swinging-strike rate of 11.9%. Furthermore, Kutter has a fine soft/hard contact ratio of 17.3% / 29.6%.
Best of all, positive regression may already be in progress with Crawford allowing three runs or less in each of his last three starts.
The Pick
With Peterson’s ERA outperforming his peripherals and Crawford trending in the right direction, we are betting on the Red Sox as road underdogs in Citi Field.
Predicted Score: Red Sox 4 – Mets 3
MLB Pick: Red Sox ML (+112) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
