Rockets vs. Warriors NBA Playoffs Game 6 Best Bet: Houston, We Have Lift-Off!

Golden State Is Favored Too Heavily

Looking at this series as a whole, it is clear that Houston has been the better team even though the Warriors are clearly favored tonight.

This clarity emerges when you exclude playoff experience from consideration of how the series has played out. 

One of Houston’s three losses in this series was its first playoff game, Game 1. A second of Houston’s three losses was its first road game, Game 3.

Playoff experience does not play a role in tonight’s game because of the experience that Houston has already collected. 

With the Rockets having their first playoff game and their first road playoff game behind them, we can expect them to prove their superiority in this matchup.

Their only other loss in this series came not because they were outplayed on the floor but because they missed a lot of free throws. 

Houston Has Been Better

It is easy to dismiss the results of Game 5 by suggesting that Golden State mailed it in, that the Warriors were content to win the series at home.

But they did try — for a while, at least — before their bench players, going against the Rockets’ bench players, made Houston’s final margin of victory look unspectacular.

Houston’s success in Game 5 was, generally speaking, a continuation of the success it had on the floor in its previous games, where it was not plagued by inexperience.

In Houston’s wins before Game 5, the Rockets triumphed tactically in different ways that attest to the positiveness of their outlook as a team tonight because they show that Houston is a physically and athletically superior team that is able to flex that superiority in the face of Golden State’s strategies.

Attack, Attack, Attack

Houston’s best offensive performances in this series are a product of its head coach’s realization that he should use his team’s youth and athleticism to its advantage.

In Game 2 as well as in Game 5, the Rockets did a great job of attacking early in the shot clock, of attacking in transition, and generally of being more aggressive.

Conspiracy theorists will look at the number of free throws that Houston attempted in Game 5 and suggest that the NBA “rigged” the game for Houston so that the series would be extended. But the conspiracy theorists are wrong yet again. 

By emphasizing speed on offense, the Rockets did not allow Golden State defenders to get into good position. The Rockets precluded spacing from being a problem by keeping the Warriors on their heels, which led to them having to foul — defenders foul when they are out of position.

Key Individual Players

One key player for Houston has been Alperen Sengun because of his tactical utilization against Golden State’s zone. His placement in the high post has facilitated Houston’s success against this strategy from Golden State.

Game 4 is when Sengun shined the most, scoring 31 points.

His nine assists in Game 5, moreover, reflects his success in Houston’s more speed-oriented attack.

Another key player has been Amen Thompson. His field goal percentage has been over 57 percent in every game in this series except the two inexperience games — the first ever playoff game and the first road playoff game.

Fred VanVleet has found his stroke and is finally shooting well from deep.

The Rockets have found sufficient firepower in their personnel to succeed even while Jalen Green, whose initial minutes in Game 5 were extremely promising and thus create promise for this future in this series, continues to underperform — although Green is, as his team’s top scorer, someone who could explode for over 30 points in any given game.

Houston’s Improving Defense

The Rockets don’t simply attack as a choice. When the opponent makes a basket, it can get back on defense and make the game a half-court game.

Getting stops — defensive rebounds, blocks, etc. — enable Houston to attack more.

Game 5 showed their ability to use speed and length on defense to make Golden State uncomfortable on offense.

Whereas the Rockets are getting to their preferred spots on the floor and converting their favorable shot attempts, the Warriors are struggling just to avoid turnovers — Houston had nine steals in Game 5.

Houston’s Two-Big Zone

The Rockets are also successful as a result of their head coach’s tactical intelligence — Ime Udoka is well-known as a defensive game-planner.

Golden State is particularly inefficient against Houston’s zone defense with two bigs, Sengun and rebounding menace Steven Adams.

The use of a second big is valuable because it clogs the paint and impedes Golden State’s capacity to beat Houston’s zone with the short roll.

With Houston’s zone defense thus maximized with a second big, Golden State’s offense is primed to continue to struggle.

During the regular season, Golden State’s offense was statistically the NBA’s worst offense against the zone.

Their sustained offensive inefficiency, as measured by their very low PPP (points per possession), against the zone in this series is a continuation of this regular season problem.

No Solutions In Sight

There appear to be solutions on paper for Golden State’s offense, but they are not realistic.

In a perfect world, using Jimmy Butler would be a great option. But Butler has lacked explosiveness as he deals with a pelvic and gluteal contusion. His muscles are painfully sore.

Steph Curry, moreover, is dealing with an injured thumb.

5-for-17 from deep in his last two games combined, Curry has now suffered consecutive bad games, as the Rockets use their physicality, in addition to their length and athleticism, and employ aggressive tactics to limit his productivity. Youth and tactics are triumphing against older guys like Curry.

To be effective on offense, Golden State will want less-proven players to be effective in the mid-range. Brandin Podziemski had his one big game in the series where he was solid from three, but he has been so poor overall that his field goal conversion rate in this series is still 38.5 percent.

Trusting Draymond Green, who has never been known for his scoring, to be an effective mid-range weapon does not seem like it could work out in practice. 

Relying on Quinten Post and Moses Moody could, again, seem interesting on paper, but Post is a rookie, and Moody is likewise inexperienced. Expecting them to handle critical levels of responsibility in the playoffs is a big ask. Besides, both players are liabilities on defense.

Takeaway

Houston has too many advantages, and, as these teams have now played five games against each other, the Rockets know how to use them on both ends.

Their speed, length, and athleticism are valuable assets on both offense and defense. Their physicality is effective on defense, their aggressiveness on both offense and defense. They keep Golden State’s defenders on their heels and make them uncomfortable on offense.

The two-big zone is something that Golden State, especially in its current banged-up state, can’t overcome, plus the Warriors have struggled all season with the zone. 

Houston, it is clear, is a terrible matchup for Golden State. With inexperience not a factor tonight, the Rockets will flex their advantages.

NBA Pick: Rockets +5.5 (-110) at BetOnline

Rockets +5.5 (-110)

Visit Site

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.