The Saturday college football slate features many great games throughout the day and evening, but for our Saturday football bets, I want to focus on one matchup: Iowa vs. USC.
There are many more betting opportunities this Saturday afternoon, so don’t forget to survey the odds for all of Saturday’s affairs and avoid missing out on other college football bets that you might want to make.
Best Bets for Iowa Hawkeyes vs. USC Trojans
Given today’s playoff format, one could easily argue that Iowa vs. USC is the most exciting game of the week. The winner of this game will have a legitimate shot at making the playoffs, while the loser will likely have no shot at making the playoffs.
This is also an interesting game because the teams have contrasting styles. Iowa is your prototypical hard-nosed defense-oriented team from the frigid Midwest that is characterized by toughness. Conversely, USC is a flashy California team that is known above all for its high-powered offense.
A lot of folks, especially those of the old-school variety, love to bet on the defensive-minded team in this situation. But remember that betting isn’t formulaic – the defensive-minded team is not always going to cover the spread against the softer, offensive-first one. In this game, you can expect USC to exhibit the firepower that Iowa lacks. Whereas the Trojans will have no problem scoring, Iowa’s offense will prove too limited to keep pace.
Let’s take a look at our best bets for Saturday on this expectation.
Saturday Odds (USC -6.5)
The odds for this game opened at USC -6.5. Despite the high percentage of wagers favoring Iowa, the Trojans are still listed as 6.5-point favorites, and you can even find USC -7 at certain sportsbooks.
A look at the odds boards and the wager percentages thus indicates the possibility that USC has drawn some attention from sharps, whereas Iowa is a very public road dog.
Given that USC -7 is already available, the -6.5 might not last long. But, outside of a steam move produced by sharp action, I don’t see any circumstances that would produce a significant line shift.
Saturday Picks (USC -6.5)
The Hawkeyes are popular because they almost beat Oregon, but they also lost by one more point against unranked Iowa State. Matchup analysis invalidates transitive property logic.
USC matches up better for the following reasons:
- USC’s scoring average in home games is over 14 points higher than Oregon’s in road games.
- The Trojans bring a more prolific offense while maintaining Oregon’s defensive capabilities.
- USC just blew out a Northwestern team with a similar style to Iowa: poor quarterback play and a run-heavy approach.
Expect USC to sell out to stop Iowa’s rush attack because, with their leading receiver having all of 216 yards, the Hawkeyes are only dangerous on the ground. USC enters this game having held Northwestern to 17 points in a blowout loss and a more balanced Nebraska offense to 17 points.
Additionally, Iowa has shown plenty of vulnerabilities this year:
- Iowa allowed 28 points to Rutgers and 24 to Penn State, exposing cracks in its defense.
- USC, averaging over 500 total yards per game, can attack through the air and on the ground.
- The Trojans should easily surpass 30 points, forcing Iowa’s offense into uncomfortable territory.
Under its head coach, Iowa is winless out west in regular-season play, and they are suffering a twelve-game losing streak against ranked opponents. For the above reasons, I love USC -6.5.
If you want alternate spreads or comparative insights, take a look at the NCAAF Picks page for tonight’s other bets.
Expert Pick: USC -6.5 (-113) at Bookmaker
Iowa’s Mark Gronowski Interceptions Thrown Over ½ (+100)
The above Iowa vs. USC analysis motivates consideration of different player props for this game. Most of all, I wish to target Iowa’s quarterback Mark Gronowski, as his arm is the weak link of Iowa’s offense.
Ideally, the Hawkeyes will want to be able to run the ball, but USC’s ability to sell out to stop their ground game and to score so many points on offense will force Iowa’s offense to be more aggressive.
Gronowski will therefore have to throw more passes. More pass attempts from him mean more interceptions. Hence, he’s thrown an interception in both of Iowa’s losses in which he attempted 20 or more passes. Three of his four interceptions this year came in a game in which he attempted at least 20 passes. Because Iowa won’t be able to hide his weakness as a passer, you can count on him to throw an interception.
Expert Pick: Mark Gronowski Interceptions Thrown Over ½ (+100) at Bovada
Make Your Football Bets Now
We can’t wait to see Iowa and USC clash with their playoff lives on the line. For this week’s Saturday college football bets, expect USC to dominate what other bettors wrongly expect to be a close affair.
Timing is everything in sports betting, so be sure to sign up at multiple top sportsbooks and to get the best number for each bet that you place. Don’t forget to check out other NCAAF odds, picks, and player props.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
