Top NFL Pick: 49ers -13.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The NFL’s Week 17 schedule has a pivotal matchup for the NFC South race between the New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. We are also looking at Jacksonville’s latest attempt to stop the losing slide against Carolina, and if we can trust the 49ers to right the ship with a dominant win over a bad Washington team.
We studied the NFL computer predictions and set aside our favorite spreads or totals for your Week 17 bets at your favorite offshore sportsbooks.
Can Carolina Add to Jacksonville’s Collapse?
The Jacksonville Jaguars (8-7) are on a 4-game losing streak and in danger of missing the playoffs if they do not stop the bleeding and beat the Carolina Panthers (2-13) this week. But the Panthers just scored a season-high 30 points against Green Bay after rookie quarterback Bryce Young had his best game.
Can Young do it again and shock the Jaguars? The Panthers are a 6.5-point road underdog with a total of 37.5 points. We are looking at the over.
Carolina Panthers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, December 31, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at EverBank Stadium
Carolina’s Opportunity vs. Struggling Defense
Things have been ugly for Carolina this year, but at least Bryce Young showed real flashes of competence in a great matchup against the Packers last week. He passed for over 300 yards after failing to hit 200 yards in his previous 7 games.
The Jacksonville defense may not be quite on the level of Green Bay when it comes to being generous for quarterbacks to face, but it has been an issue for this losing streak:
- Jake Browning led the Bengals to 34 points in his 1st road start against the Jaguars.
- Joe Flacco had little experience with Cleveland but still put up 31 points.
- It seems like a minor miracle that the Jaguars held Lamar Jackson and the Ravens to 23 points, but Baltimore did rush for 251 yards that night and went into clock-killing mode in the 4th quarter.
- Baker Mayfield and the Bucs put up 30 points last week, taking advantage of the turnovers by the Jacksonville offense.
The defense was a strength earlier this year for Jacksonville when it was forcing turnovers, but those have not been there in recent weeks. The Jaguars have allowed 12-of-15 opponents to reach at least 17 points this year, and that should be a good minimum benchmark for Carolina to hit coming off Young’s best game.
Should Trevor Lawrence Take a Seat?
While Trevor Lawrence has never missed an NFL start due to injury, maybe he should have this past month because his play is hurting the team. Lawrence has played through numerous injuries and was cleared from a concussion to play on Sunday, but he did not look ready as he committed 3 more turnovers, all of which led to Tampa Bay touchdowns.
Lawrence left the game with a shoulder injury and his status is up in the air. Backup C.J. Beathard led a touchdown drive off the bench and has experience in this league. He could take advantage of a poor Carolina defense should he get the call this week.
No matter who starts at quarterback, the Jaguars have a favorable matchup, as Carolina ranks 30th in points allowed at 25.4 per game. This year, 11-of-15 opponents have hit 20 points against the Panthers, including 7 games of 27 or more points.
The Jaguars have had health issues with Lawrence and receivers Christian Kirk and Zay Jones. They may still have Lawrence for this game, and they could get Jones back. They still have Calvin Ridley (2 touchdowns last week), tight end Evan Engram, and running back Travis Etienne. This offense should be doing much better than it has in the last month, so hopefully this matchup with the 2-win Panthers will bring out their best.
The Pick
At this rate, if the score was reversed we wouldn’t be that surprised, as Jacksonville is making so many mistakes with missed field goals and turnovers. But the Jaguars have a veteran coach who has fixed things late in seasons before, and the Panthers are still limited on both sides of the ball.
However, we like the Panthers to pull enough of the weight for the over to hit as Jacksonville should finally get back in the win column.
Score Prediction: Jaguars 27 – Panthers 15
NFL Pick: Over 37.5 (-110) at BetAnySports (visit our BetAnySports Review)
Buccaneers Can Make Strong NFC Push with Sweep of Saints
This was supposed to be the year the Saints took advantage of an easy schedule to win the NFC South, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers took a step back after going from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield.
Whoops. That didn’t work out, as Mayfield is thriving like the best quarterback in the division while the Saints are struggling with Derek Carr. Now the Buccaneers (8-7) can complete a sweep of the Saints at home and drop them to 7-9 and make it impossible for them to win the division.
The Buccaneers are a 3-point home favorite with a total of 42 points. We prefer the total in this matchup.
New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, December 31, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at Raymond James Stadium
Baker Mayfield on Fire
Baker Mayfield is up to 26 touchdowns and 8 interceptions in his 1st season with the Buccaneers. If those numbers sound familiar, it is because he had 26 touchdowns and 8 interceptions in 2020 for the Browns when he made the playoffs and won a playoff game that year over Pittsburgh.
Given what we know about the pandemic’s effect on football that 2020 season with empty stadiums inflating offense, you could say this is Mayfield’s best season yet in the NFL.
He has thrown 8 touchdowns in the last 3 weeks against playoff hopefuls such as Atlanta, Green Bay, and Jacksonville. Tampa scored at least 29 points in each game, a number they reached just twice all of last season with Tom Brady at quarterback.
Mayfield already had one of his best games earlier this season in Week 4 when he threw for 246 yards and 3 touchdowns in a 26-9 win in New Orleans. Mayfield was barely pressured in that game as he beat the Saints with short passes as his average depth of target was 5.0 yards, a season-low. He can do it again to this defense, which has not played well in recent weeks against contenders, allowing 30 points to the Rams and 33 points to the Lions.
We may not put Mayfield quite in that Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford category yet, as those guys have Super Bowl runs on their resume. But Mayfield is a No. 1 overall pick and thriving right now.
Saints Not in Scoring Slump
For most of this season, the Saints made scoring 20 points with any consistency look difficult. But in the last 4 games, the Saints have reached at least 22 points every week. The problem is the defense allowed 30 points twice in that span in the losses to the Rams and Lions.
But for all of Derek Carr’s flaws, he has thrown 3 touchdowns in back-to-back games. He did wait very long to get going against the Rams last week, but the team had a late rally cooking in the 30-22 loss before they were unable to get the ball back one more time.
There is still real talent on this offense with Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, and Rashid Shaheed. Carr has gotten more comfortable with Olave in recent weeks, which is a good sign going forward.
The Saints scored a season-low 9 points against Tampa in Week 4. They had 3 long drives that bogged down and had to settle for field goals in that game. They also turned it over 3 times, including each of the last 2 drives. They must clean that up if they have any hope of staying alive in this division race.
The Pick
This score is agreeable, as it shouldn’t be 26-9 again. The Saints are moving the ball better than they were in Week 4, and the Buccaneers are even more efficient on offense now that Mayfield has discovered more of a running game and receiving option in Rachaad White. Mike Evans continues to dominate, though he has been quiet against the Saints most of his career.
This game should be tightly contested, which makes it a tough call for the spread. But we think the over has the best value, as both teams could realistically get to 20 points, and this one is not ending in a tie.
Score Prediction: Buccaneers 23 – Saints 20
NFL Pick: Over 42 (-110) at BetOnline
49ers Are Fine
Nothing says NFL overreaction like the way people are jumping off the San Francisco bandwagon after one bad game against Baltimore on Monday night. The 49ers will be fine and are still on a short list of teams most likely to win the Super Bowl this year.
One team that is definitely not winning anything this year is Washington after the Commanders made a spirited 20-point comeback against the Jets only to lose in the end. The 49ers are a 13.5-point road favorite with a total of 48.5 points. It is a big spread on the road and a short week but here is why we like it for San Francisco.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Washington Commanders
Sunday, December 31, 2023 – 01:00 PM ET at FedExField
Elite Offense vs. Worst Scoring Defense
Clearly, the formula to beat the 49ers involves holding them under 20 points and forcing at least 3 turnovers. That is what the Vikings, Bengals, and Ravens have done to the 49ers this year. In fact, San Francisco is 1-3 against the AFC North this year with a tough loss in Cleveland too.
Unfortunately for Washington, it is just a bad NFC team that ranks dead last in scoring defense, allowing 30.2 points per game. Washington has already allowed 9 teams to hit 30 points this year.
With the way receivers end up running wide open against this defense and the way the 49ers scheme receivers wide open, this game could set a record in the Next Gen Stats era for most separation by open receivers in a game since 2016.
These teams met in late December last year and the 49ers won 37-20. It could be a similar game to that. Brock Purdy had a stinger and was taken out of the game late against Baltimore. He should be fine and ready to bounce back in this one against an awful defense.
Is the Sam Howell Experiment Over?
Are the Commanders giving up on Sam Howell? He was throwing the ball more than anyone and taking the most sacks this year. But since the Miami loss, the offense has really dialed back his pass attempts, and he has been benched early in the last 2 games only to see backup Jacoby Brissett successfully move the offense for multiple touchdowns.
There has yet to be any announcement that Howell is getting benched for Brissett to start this next game. But there is no denying that Howell has struggled instead of improved down the stretch this year.
In his last 2 outings, Howell has completed 35.4% of his passes for 158 yards, 1 touchdown, 3 interceptions, a 26.2 passer rating, and a minuscule 3.29 yards per pass attempt. These numbers would have been rotten in 1953, let alone in 2023.
If Howell gets the start, it is hard to see him having a good game against this tough San Francisco defense. Brissett could be seeing more action.
The Pick
The 49ers had a 3-game losing streak earlier this year, so it’s not impossible for back-to-back bad performances. But Washington is one of the worst matchups for San Francisco. No defense to keep track of these incredible receivers, and no offense you can trust to score on such a defense.
It would be surprising if this game was close.
Score Prediction: 49ers 36 – Commanders 19
NFL Pick: 49ers -13.5 (-110) at BetOnline
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