Reds vs. Guardians MLB Best Bet: Junis Makes Bibee See Red in Upset
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LT Profits
- September 24, 2024
MLB Pick: Reds ML (+146) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Tuesday brings us a full 15-game card of MLB betting matchups with every team in action. And we are back with the three plays we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds available on top sportsbooks.
These value bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, which favors a side in the Battle Of Ohio in the Reds vs. Guardians matchup Tuesday.
If you’re looking for more MLB value picks:
And if you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel, where our expert covered the Cubs vs. Phillies and Mets vs. Braves games.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians
Tuesday, September 24, 2024 – 06:40 PM ET at Progressive Field
We are looking for an upset in Cleveland on Tuesday as we are backing Jakob Junis and the Reds as decided underdogs visiting Tanner Bibee and a Guardians’ lineup expected to rest some players.
Already Clinched Division
The Guardians have already clinched the AL Central, being the first team in baseball this year to clinch its division. Thus, they are expected to use this series to rest several regulars each game before being a full-go for a season-ending series vs. Houston that may have seeding implications.
Their starter Tanner Bibee is having a nice second season in the majors and he should probably have a better record than 11-8, considering his 3.56 ERA, 3.75 xFIP, and 9.72/9 strikeout rate. The news is not entirely good though, as when he is not striking people out, Tanner combines a low 33.8% groundball rate with a relatively high hard contact rate of 30.3%.
It also remains to be seen if the Guardians choose to limit his innings tonight with the playoffs approaching, and they may even experiment a bit with their bullpen usage this series.
Solid As Starter
Jakob Junis is quietly having a very solid season for the Reds, as he is 4-0 across 23 appearances including five starts, with a 2.61 ERA and 3.89 xFIP over 62 innings. Granted he is not a big strikeout guy at 6.97/9, but he also has a career-low walk rate of 1.02/9 and has lowered his hard contact rate to 28.8% from 33.7% last season.
Perhaps most impressively, Jakob has yet to allow more than three runs in any of his 23 appearances! That obviously includes all five of his starts, and he is coming off a season high 6-inning outing last time out where he allowed only one run and two hits with six strikeouts. That marked the fourth straight start where he allowed one run or less, although neither of the previous three outings topped five innings.
The Pick
Still, we expect Junis to continue to pitch well against a Cleveland lineup expected to rest some key pieces. That has us betting the Reds as underdogs in this Ohio Series opener.
Predicted Score: Reds 5 – Guardians 4
MLB Pick: Reds ML (+146) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
