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Rays vs. Phillies MLB Best Bet: Tampa Bay To Show No Brotherly Love in Philly
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LT Profits
- September 10, 2024
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MLB Pick: Rays ML (+151) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
We are back today with our top three MLB plays for Tuesday’s 15-game slate, which we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds available on top sportsbooks.
These value bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, which favors a side in the City of Brotherly Love in the Rays vs. Phillies matchup on Tuesday.
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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Tuesday, September 10, 2024 – 06:40 PM ET at Citizens Bank Park
While Ranger Suarez of the Phillies is having a breakout season, we feel he is overpriced here so we are taking the value with Taj Bradley and the Rays as decided underdogs.
Better Than His ERA
Taj Bradley enters this contest at just 6-10 with a 4.40 ERA. However, he is a better pitcher than that as evidenced by his notably stronger xFIP of 3.61 and his overall Stuff+ rating of 116. He has one of the best fastballs in the game at 96.3 MPH with a 129 Stuff+, and that is supported by a 90.8 MPH splitter rated 122.
That live arm has led to a nice strikeout rate of 10.11 K/9 in his second Major League season, as he has increased his swinging strike rate to 12.7% from 11.3% in his rookie year last season. He even has a 41.4% groundball rate that is quite good for a power pitcher. The main thing holding Taj back has been walks at 3.01/9, but his strand rate of 71.3% is around league average, so his strikeouts have helped pitch around those free passes.
Good Pitcher, Bad Price
Now, we have nothing against Ranger Suarez, who at age 29 has come into his own this year after previously showing flashes of both greatness and inconsistency. He has been much steadier this season, going 12-6 with a 2.90 ERA and 3.09 xFIP. He would be near the top of the leaderboard in both stats, but his current 133.1 innings pitched leaves him short of qualifying.
With that being said, we still have issues with being this large of a favorite in this spot. After all, he is facing another pitcher with an xFIP in the 3.0s, and his strikeout rate of 8.31/9, while good, pales next to Bradley. Also, Ranger has a rather low swinging strike rate of 9.4%, suggesting quite a few of his strikeouts have been called third strikes.
The Pick
So, while we feel that Suarez’s improvement this season is real, we also feel that Bradley deserves a better ERA. Given this price, we are betting on the latter and the Rays as nice underdogs on Tuesday.
Predicted Score: Rays 5 – Phillies 4
MLB Pick: Rays ML (+151) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
