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Mets vs. Blue Jays MLB Best Bet: Peterson To Regress North of the Border
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LT Profits
- September 10, 2024
Table of Contents
MLB Pick: Blue Jays ML (+119) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We enter Tuesday’s 15-game slate with three more plays from top sportsbooks that we feel hold great betting value at the current MLB odds.
These plays are based mostly on our proprietary model. One of the best bets for Tuesday comes north of the border in Canada where our model likes the side when the Mets visit the Blue Jays.
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New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Tuesday, September 10, 2024 – 07:07 PM ET at Rogers Centre
David Peterson of the Mets has been one of the biggest overachievers in baseball when comparing his ERA to his xFIP. Thus, we are betting on Chris Bassitt and the Blue Jays at home.
Major Regression in order
Peterson has been a prime regression candidate for most of this season, yet here we are in September, and he is still sitting with a 9-1 record and a spiffy 2.75 ERA. However, that is over only 98.1 innings, so there is still time these last few weeks for negative regression toward his less flattering xFIP of 4.20.
As is usually the case with these big variances, it is the xFIP that makes more sense. After all, David Peterson has a soft K/BB ratio of 7.41/3.66 per nine innings and a below average overall Stuff+ of 94. He also has a weak soft/hard contact ratio of 12.2% / 30.6%. And yet, he has been very lucky with an obscene 82.4% strand rate despite just a moderate strikeout rate and nondescript stuff.
He simply does not profile as a sub-3.00 ERA pitcher, not to mention one with a 9-1 record.
Good Enough at This Price
Now, Chris Bassitt has slipped a bit this season after posting ERAs below 4.00 each of the past six years. He is currently 9-13 with a 4.30 ERA and 4.14 xFIP. But we still think that is good enough to make him an attractive underdog at home facing a lucky, overachieving pitcher like Peterson, especially with Bassitt owning the slightly better xFIP.
And the news is not all bad for Chris as he is still striking out nearly a batter per inning at 8.94/9 while being mainly a sinker/slider pitcher, throwing his fastball a mere 4.1% of the time. But that is fine with a slider rated a whopping 142 on Stuff+ with late lateral movement, leading to a good strikeout rate. Also, his soft-contact rate of 16.8% is more than 4% higher than that of Peterson.
The Pick
The bottom line here is that Peterson is not deserving of his ERA and Bassitt has the better K-Rate and xFIP. We are betting on the Blue Jays as home underdogs in Toronto.
Predicted Score: Blue Jays 5 – Mets 4
MLB Pick: Blue Jays ML (+119) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
