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Orioles vs. Red Sox MLB Best Bet: Hey Albert, Boston Makes the “Kut”
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LT Profits
- September 10, 2024
Table of Contents
MLB Pick: Red Sox ML (-108) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We are back with three MLB best bets for Tuesday’s 15-game slate that we feel hold nice value at the current MLB odds available on top sportsbooks.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model. Our model points to a side in Beantown Tuesday with the Orioles visiting the Red Sox.
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Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox
Tuesday, September 10, 2024 – 07:10 PM ET at Fenway Park
While Albert Suarez has done a commendable job for the Orioles, his ERA seems fraudulent based on his metrics. This has us backing Kutter Crawford and the Red Sox at home in Fenway Park.
Not Great Stuff
The Orioles enter the day 1.5 games behind the Yankees in the AL East and Suarez has contributed to that success going a surprising 7-5 with a 3.49 ERA in multiple roles. He has now settled in as a starter after pitching as both a reliever and bulk pitcher following an opener to begin the season, as 17 of his last 18 outings have been starts.
And while the O’s have gotten more than they expected from a 34-year-old that pitched in Korea the last two years, the reality is that Albert’s ERA is lucky compared to his uglier 4.60 xFIP. Albert Suarez has a modest K/BB ratio of 6.91/2.94 per nine innings, a low groundball rate of 35.4%, and a moderate soft/hard contact ratio of 14.2% / 30.0% that does not support the ERA. And he does not score highly on Stuff+ either with a relatively weak overall rating of 89.
Unlucky Current Form
Now, we expected better from Kutter Crawford this season, but he is a disappointing 8-13 with a 4.06 ERA and 4.43 xFIP. To be fair, that xFIP is still better than Suarez, and Crawford has more closely resembled the pitcher we expected in his last four starts, but with little luck to show for it.
In fact, one can say he has literally had zero luck those last four outings, going 0-4 despite allowing three runs or less in all four of them, allowing exactly two runs three times! He even lost when allowing one hit in six innings last time out as that hit was a home run. The strikeouts have been there all year for Kutter at 8.33/9 and he has a good soft/hard contact ratio of 17.3% / 29.8%.
The Pick
Crawford’s luck is bound to turn around as he may be pitching his best ball of the season lately with nothing to show for it. Meanwhile, Suarez has been the opposite while getting good luck with a deceptive ERA. Bet the Red Sox as small home favorites on Tuesday.
Predicted Score: Red Sox 5 – Orioles 3
MLB Pick: Red Sox ML (-108) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
