We have a full 15-game slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups on Wednesday with all 30 teams in action. We are here with a play that, according to our MLB odds, has the most betting value at top-rated sportsbooks.
This value bet is based mostly on our proprietary model. One of the best bets for Wednesday comes in the Show Me State of Missouri, where our model favors a total when the Pirates visit the Cardinals.
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MLB Pick: Over 8 (-103) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Wednesday, June 12, 2024 – 07:45 PM ET at Busch Stadium
We are looking for an abundance of runs in St. Louis on Wednesday, so bet the Over when Bailey Falter and the Pirates visit Sonny Gray and the Cardinals.
Falter-ing Metrics
Sure, Falter has a good 3.69 ERA, but he has had luck on his side as his metrics more closely support his less impressive 4.67 xFIP. And we literally mean luck, as he has benefited from a very low BABIP allowed of .213. That figure looks even luckier for a guy who does not strike out many batters and allows a lot of air contact.
To wit, Bailey has a poor K/BB ratio of 5.80/2.37 per nine innings along with a low groundball rate of 33.7%. Moreover, much of the air contact has been hard with his hard-contact rate of 33.2% up from an already shaky 30.7% last year. Given his low velocity of 91.6 MPH and swinging-strike rate of 8.7%, we do not foresee much improvement in the hard-contact and thus expect a huge rise in his ERA as the BABIP normalizes.
No Need to Allow Much
With the Cardinals capable of approaching this total by themselves given Falter’s expected regression, Gray may not need to allow many runs to clear this Over. And that is a good thing because he is having a fine season, sitting at 7-4 with a 3.21 ERA and excellent 2.64 xFIP.
One caveat for Sonny, however, is that his hard-contact rate has continued to rise with his age. Now 34 years old, that figure is up to 32.7% from an even 30.0% last season. However, he has also become craftier with five different pitches that he has thrown at least 15% of the time. This has helped him post an impressive strikeout rate of 11.97/9, which would be a career-high.
The Pick
Remember that we expect the Cardinals to feast on Falter, so Gray’s high hard-contact rate leading to just a few runs would be sufficient. Thus, we are backing the Over in this spot.
Predicted Score: Cardinals 7 – Pirates 4
MLB Pick: Over 8 (-103) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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