We have a full 15-game slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups on Wednesday with all 30 teams in action. We are here with a play that, according to our MLB odds, has the most betting value at top-rated sportsbooks.
This value bet is based mostly on our proprietary model. Our model likes a Side in the desert on Wednesday with the Angels visiting the Diamondbacks.
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MLB Pick: Diamondbacks ML (-140) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Wednesday, June 12, 2024 – 09:40 PM ET at Chase Field
We are not really sold on José Soriano of the Angels as a starter quite yet, so we are backing Slade Cecconi and the Diamondbacks at home in the desert.
First Year Starting
Soriano pitched exclusively out of the bullpen as a rookie in 38 appearances last year, but the Angels thrust him into the starting rotation after two outings in relief to begin this season. And while he is 3-5 overall, he does sport a good 3.64 ERA. The xFIP is a bit higher, although not terrible at 3.85.
However, Jose does have some red flags starting with the huge dip in his strikeout rate to 7.69/9 as a starter from 12.00 as a reliever last year. That does not look fluky either, given his swinging-strike rate is down to 10.0% from 14.8%. Also, Soriano has gone beyond six innings only once in 11 starts, bringing into play an Angels bullpen ranked 29th in the majors in ERA (4.92), ahead of only Colorado and 26th in xFIP at 4.48.
Moreover, the Arizona offense has improved against right-handers as the season has gone on. Although the wRC+ against them is still below average at 96, that figure jumps to 108 at home.
Angels Struggle vs. Righties
Now granted, Cecconi has yet to live up to his very good minor-league numbers at the Major League level. He enters at 1-4 with a 5.66 ERA and only a 4.95 xFIP. He is averaging just 6.31 strikeouts per nine innings after averaging around double-digits at all his minor league stops. Still, he has peaked at 97.0 MPH on his fastball and has an excellent slider with a Stuff+ of 116.
That gives hope for improvement, and this is a good spot for that to begin against an Angels lineup that has struggled against righties, now that Shohei Ohtani has left for the cross-town Dodgers. They rank 25th in wRC+ against right-handers at 89, and that figure drops further to 82 on the road.
The Pick
With these offenses heading in opposite directions, Soriano not as good as his ERA and Cecconi having potential for improvement, bet the Diamondbacks at home on Wednesday.
Predicted Score: Diamondbacks 5 – Angels 3
MLB Pick: Diamondbacks ML (-140) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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